North Korea Has Two Nuclear Warheads for Missile, Kyodo Reports

Let's wargame a few possibilities, knowing the situation.

Best Case: Yet again the N Korean missile test is a failure and either explodes on the pad or falls harmlessly into the sea. This might result in minor sanctions and token removal of ambassadors and diplomats.

Case 2: N. Korea is in earnest and truthful and puts a satellite in orbit. This will result in minor sanctions, due to the violation of the treaty stipulations against Taepodong II-type missiles.

Case 3: N Korea, as per its missile test history, launches a missile that flies high over Japan and lands in the Pacific Ocean. Japan and the United States cooperate and monitor the launch, but agree that the missile poses no danger to any populated area and allow the missile to fall into the sea. Sanctions are imposed and diplomats are withdrawn. The UN Security Council calls an immediate meeting and condemns Pyongyang.

Case 4: N Korea, as per its missile test history, launches a missile that appears, either by intention or accident, to be a threat to Japan. Japan takes action and destroys the ballistic device. This triggers Pyongyang to go into an uproar and begin calling up its armed forces and preparing shorter range missiles. There is an immediate delegation dispatched from the UN, led by China, to subdue the tensions. China looks like the hero.

Case 5: N. Korea, as per its missile test history, launches a missile that is far more effective than intelligence estimates and looks to be provacative to the United States. Not that the missile is aimed at Alaska or Hawaii, but, the technology has come to the point that it is close. The United States shoots the missile down. If this happens, there can be two options, either the same resolution as Case 4, OR, the N Korean military enters the DMZ and engages in skirmishes with the United States and S Korea. This is not the escalation to war, but it is close.

Case 6: ... The missile is aimed at Japan and, whether or not it was intended to hit Japan, it does, as the Japanese Aegis system is not effective. Japan responds with a request to the United States and the UN to intervene and moves the bulk of its fleet into N Korean waters. N Korea, in response, moves into the DMZ. The US and S Korea respond by halting the advance of the N Korean army and engaging it. Pyongyang, now engaged, threatens and begins to show that it will deploy nuclear missiles against S Korea or Japan. The United States, in response, deploys a Carrier Group to the region and begins a systematic and tactical strike against the major missile facilities and locations of N Korea.

Worst Case Scenario: Because of bad intelligence, the N Koreans have equipped this missile with a nuclear tip. It is directed towards Japan. Due to a fault in the Aegis detectors, the missile hits Japan. Japan responds with all of its possible force and the US and S Korea move across the DMZ. The United States authorizes the launch of Non-Nuclear ICBMs and allows for the launch of west-coast bomber squadrons as well as those from Alaska. These begin a major strike meant to cripple any kind of further response from N Korea. The United States would, then, deploy its forces currently in Japan to the region and, in partnership with S Korea and China, effect regime change in N Korea.

Most likely case is either #1 or #3. The next would be #4.

Everyone is watching the right hand, while the left hand is about to slap you in the face. That is what will happen with this situation.

reply to post by Estharik


It doesn't matter if it's just a "little" one. A nuke is a nuke.

Originally posted by TheAmused
omg WW3 is coming in April 4th to 8th..

They shoot the missle...
We shoot it down.....
They gonna launch there nuke's maybe.

OMG OMG OMG






www.bloomberg.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 31-3-2009 by TheAmused]


too much call of duty for you ..

really...the people need to be very neive to think that any country with nuclear power will attack other country with nuclear power ... thats just sick ... no one will risk ... thats just threats ...
[edit on 31-3-2009 by TheAmused]

Originally posted by Iago18

Worst Case Scenario: Because of bad intelligence, the N Koreans have equipped this missile with a nuclear tip. It is directed towards Japan. Due to a fault in the Aegis detectors, the missile hits Japan. Japan responds with all of its possible force and the US and S Korea move across the DMZ. The United States authorizes the launch of Non-Nuclear ICBMs and allows for the launch of west-coast bomber squadrons as well as those from Alaska. These begin a major strike meant to cripple any kind of further response from N Korea. The United States would, then, deploy its forces currently in Japan to the region and, in partnership with S Korea and China, effect regime change in N Korea.

Most likely case is either #1 or #3. The next would be #4.

Nice analysis.

However, one detail is a bit off the mark. There is, by definition, no such thing as an ICBM with a conventional warhead. Also an ICBM is not likely to be targeted anywhere near China or Russia, for obvious reasons.

reply to post by Voiceoftreason


That's what you think

Just kidding! Thanks for that. I wanted to make the case that there would be a continental response rather than just a regional response (i.e. The United States drawing more significant forces than are available currently in Southeast Asia)

Anyhow, thanks for reading the whole thing!

Everyone think's ..Well so and so has nuke's..they wont use them becouse they will nuke them back...

Well WTF pardon my french....Did they make them for folk's...

Have you ever made or bought something and never used what you bought or made?

Eventually someone Nk maybe..will use these thing's it wont matter.


Won't matter if it's a small one lol

So we can;t use that excuse not to worry any more.

My tank is bigger than your tank..so you wont invade us.
They do it all the time lol

Originally posted by loki41872
reply to post by tothetenthpower

 

Better do some research. Japan recently changed that part of their constitution.

They are rearming now, and are getting ready.

No, they haven't.

Article 9 has not been amended. There has been a bit of debate on the possibility of amending it on and off since the 1950s, but thusfar it's intact.

reply to post by tothetenthpower


That is true, but Japan are such a part of the western civilisation now, that if push came to shove no one would make them obide by that WWII Era agreement.

I doubt Nkorea are going to use the Nuke, its their ultimate defense.

Now, if Japan and the US shoot down the missile, what exactly are Nkorea going to do?

Realistically?

March on South Korea?
Launch everything at Seoul?

If we let them launch this missile, after all our public threats., we the west will look weak and feable.

If we shoot it down, we change the situation dramatically, instead of us being forced to act, we force Nkorea to either launch a massive war, or accept they still cant stand over the world.

why is it that people hear the word nuke and assume the worse.

Remember Suddams WMD's?
the word gets thrown around to get people on the edge of their seat and then nothing happens.
the next emergency happens and again it gets people on the edge and once again nothing happens.

you will keep hearing horror stories about how close you are to being destroyed and each time nothing will happen.
you get lulled into a false sense that it is all just media hype.

then one day they will throw it at you all at once and people will just panic because they will not have even bothered to prepare, and that my friends is when they will get you, when you are all paniced out and just start to ignore it.

No need to be alarmed, nothing of the sort will happen. At best, objects will be intercepted as a breach of violation to air space, afew brief political tensions and nothing more. Keep in mind, no nation wants or can handle a full nuclear strike or better yet a tactical strike. That being said, i guess everyone should relax, enjoy their free and peaceful times, for when it does happen, it will initiate with far few media directed influence.

All sides know the risks and know one is stupid enough to engage such an outcome. Then again there is always a possibility as shown in the past, that others have been manipulated in engaging super powers in regional wars.

Hint (Georgia)

Let's see.... unsubstantiated intel reports of a rouge nation possessing WMD's. Haven't we heard this before? What happened last time?

Originally posted by Karlhungis
Let's see.... unsubstantiated intel reports of a rouge nation possessing WMD's. Haven't we heard this before? What happened last time?

Yes sir..you are correct, but that did not stop us

Even if they have 2 warheads, which is still no-where near confirmed...
exactly what are people so afraid of?

2 warheads, and a really shoddy delivery system... what can that possibly achieve other than assuring NK's own destruction?


Really... what are people so freaked out about?

Kim may be crazy, but he's not stupid. He's well aware of "mutually assured destruction"... and I'm quite sure he wouldn't be dumb enough to try it with only 2 warheads.

Give your head a shake.


Do you get this freaked out in your regular life over ridiculous possibilities? I can only imagine you running around your living room screaming "OMG the neighbors kid knows where his mothers steak knives are... he might decide to come over here and cut me!"

Sometimes I wish I could be as paranoid as some of you... it would make life interesting.

reply to post by TheAmused


50/50 chance of an air burst of a nuke on the missile. Not for any target, but just for demonstration.

Wow so another country has nuclear weapon, dont stand up for their fear campaign, loosen your shoulders and put down your shield and embrace the diversity of mankind....

For your information there is other "lunatic" states who have nuclear weapons, this is taken from wikipedia:

PTB
United States
Russia
United Kingdom
France
China

Non PTB nuclear powers

India
Pakistan
North Korea

Undeclared nuclear weapons states
Israel

So you telling me that we should be afraid of some rogue country like North Korea, but be really glad that the countries above has the same weapons?

A mad man comes in many shades, and countries who posses weapon which could destroy the humanity in a split second is a quite the right place to start looking for him.

Best regards.

Loke.

[edit on 1-4-2009 by Loke.]

Iago18: Like you, I like doing wargames.

Case 6: N Korea, in response, moves into the DMZ. The US and S Korea respond by halting the advance of the N Korean army and engaging it.

Moves into the DMZ? Seriously? That would be a bloodbath on both sides. The US... with their 25.000 troops in SK and 47.000 in Japan... VS several millions... and a rain of artillery.

To give any strengh to the NK advance, with their tanks, they would need FUEL. Now... IMO they lack fuel, that's why a ground offensive is probably impossible, unless they've stocked 90% of the fuel they were given by the US... even then, for how much time would they be able to sustain an advance?

Pyongyang, now engaged, threatens and begins to show that it will deploy nuclear missiles against S Korea or Japan.

They do that and they will be bomb... did you see how much time it took for them to put that missile in place? Of course, they probably loaded up others hidden missiles in underground bunkers ready to shoot.

The United States, in response, deploys a Carrier Group to the region and begins a systematic and tactical strike against the major missile facilities and locations of N Korea.

The minute they start doing that, the NK army will start raining shells on Seoul... or maybe they'll be too disorganised.

Worse case scenario: Japan responds with all of its possible force and the US and S Korea move across the DMZ.

In case 6, Seoul might not be bombed. In this scenario... first, it would take months to mount up an operation like that... or you could attack NK with 600.000 troops... still, it would take time since i'm pretty sure all SK army is not on high alert and prepared to fight a total war.

The United States authorizes the launch of Non-Nuclear ICBMs and allows for the launch of west-coast bomber squadrons as well as those from Alaska. These begin a major strike meant to cripple any kind of further response from N Korea.

I think they would do that first before anything else.

The United States would, then, deploy its forces currently in Japan to the region and, in partnership with S Korea and China, effect regime change in N Korea.

China i'm not sure. China would probably stand by and abstain itself from the UN vote.

Anyway, any of case 6 or worst case scenario brings the death toll to at least 3 millions IMO, which is horrible.

I think case 1 or 2 will happen, I expect the worst case will be case 4. But we never know... this test/satellite is a huge NK patriotic move. If anything goes wrong, the whole NK population could be angry enough to go to war. It's a pride issue for them... according to the reports I've red.

[edit on 1-4-2009 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by son of PC

50/50 chance of an air burst of a nuke on the missile. Not for any target, but just for demonstration.

If NK did that, it would be a guarantee that Kim would be unemployed in less than an hour. China would not protect him as to do so would place them as an accessory with possible prior knowledge.

I am sure they would also help effect a leadership change maybe even quicker than we would. That cannon simply would not be allowed to remain loose or as a separate country.

If the North Koreans have passed from a crude "Fat Man" bomb, of the type used to destroy Nagasaki, to a warhead small enough to sit atop a missile then they've had help.

But by whom ?

And if such help is available to other nations then we're really in a parlous situation.

This all just harkens back to one thing said during the election..

The Obama administration will face a major crisis early on... Biden said it, and it's a self fufiling prophecy. We probably covertly helped Kim do this so that Obama could look like an angel when he defuses the situation.