posted on Mar, 27 2009 @ 02:14 PM
As I said guys, a civilian service corps is not nearly as military relevant as it was 65 years ago.
We won't really do any better for having a bunch of civilians trying to produce more war materiel. If they'd all like to strap some to their back
and swim the Atlantic, that might help, because our deployability is still our biggest problem.
I also don't think a major war is all that likely in the current situation.
1. The Chinese don't have the sealift capability to operate against significant opposition outside of Asia and their long term interests continue to
be best served by peace at this time, particularly if they want a global reserve currency.
2. The North Koreans are bluffing- their missile is a beefed up SCUD that began life as a testbed for later multi-stage rockets, IF they have a
warhead efficient enough to pack a good punch and be delivered on that rocket, they still don't have enough of them to defeat the US.
The only logical move for NK is to hold their few nukes as tactical weapons in the event of a US invasion (they would want to target key logistical
hubs in Japan and South Korea so as to end all hope of an American conquest and trap our forces, then hold them hostage to end the war without
3. The Russians are not a threat to anyone who doesn't border them, and we don't have the will to protect their neighbors if push comes to shove.
The Russians won't be a serious threat again until they're ready to threaten either Turkey or Afghanistan/Pakistan AND operate a first-rate navy
world-wide, and they've been dreaming of that day for over a century without success.
4. An attack on Iran will become much more feasible in a few years Ideally, Iran should be invaded from Pakistan and Afghanistan (BOTH, Pakistan must
be tightly under control in order for major operations from Afghanistan to be viable), as it bypasses Iranian defenses and is not as diplomatically
unattractive as invading Iran from Iraq. I don't even have to mention the budget and manpower reasons for delaying the war or the fact that Obama
could better afford that in a second term (and might even have to with a Republican congress to answer to, which WILL happen by 2014 and theoretically
could happen in 2010 if the Republican party plays its cards right).
There probably are a few wars out there waiting to happen- I'm standing by my long-time prediction that things will come to a head between us and the
Chinese, probably in Central Asia, by 2030 at the latest- but for the next 2 to 4 years I expect things to be relatively peaceful.
Whats going on is fairly simple. We're low on capital but we want to get a lot done, so Obama thinks he can get some things done with less capital by
getting people to work for free. The program will probably be scaled down after the study and then have its funding cut off after a few years of
underperformance, becoming a forgotten stepchild of the government that a hand full of diehards refuse to let go of but nobody takes seriously. (As a
Californian, I have a pretty good nose for cute ideas that aren't going anywhere good, if they go anywhere at all- so trust me).