posted on Mar, 28 2009 @ 02:52 PM
Middle East countries are all concerned about radioactive fallout due to close proximity. No one gets off cleanly if Israel or Iran are nuked.
Iran plays a dangerous game of proxy wars by supporting Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon to indirectly antagonize Israel.
They make a lot of noise about their military might and preparedness. But were devastated in an 8 year war with Iraq that despite their greater size,
population, and supposed skills, came to an inconclusive end.
Despite all their pumped oil, unless there is something we don't know about, they would be without fuel for within a week if there was a war.
Much of the provocative rhetoric and nuclear race from Iran has much to do with impressing the West and other Muslim nations that they are a serious
player on the world political stage. Threatening Israel, they think, buys them allegiance and support through the region.
Russia and China are cautious in backing Iran. They give lip service and munitions support, but are not comfortable with the wild card aspect of
Iran's foreign policy. A nuclear Iran threatens anyone in the region, and they are too damned unpredictable.
A big question, is it all just talk, or are they serious about spreading their Islamic Revolution to the West?
Almost everyone, including the largely youthful population in Iran, are hoping the current mullah regime will somehow fade away and be replaced by
leadership with a more pragmatic agenda.
The US is too bogged down with Iraq, Afghanistan, and growing problems with Pakistan, and now even Mexico, to even consider open hostilities with
Iran. At one time the Bush administration was receptive to Israel taking care of the problem, but Israel is not looking for a military confrontation
with Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria on their borders looking for an excust to engage Israel directly. The Gaza conflict reaffirmed Israel’s readiness
to respond with impunity .
So an uneasy stalemate exists with Iran merrily weaving it's tangled web hoping to instill fear and uncertainty with their weekly announcements of
nuclear progress. If they had any solid plans about nuking anyone, they wouldn't be mouthing off so much.
But in the final analysis, no one can say for sure if the mullahs are ready to see half the Iranians die in a nuclear conflagration just to show how
determined or desperate they are to spread their word.