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Originally posted by hulkbacker
-Just because we don't know how something happened is no reason to insert "GOD did it!"-
-Nevermind what observation and current scientific study actually reveal. I have faith that my naturalistic philosophy will be proven true. Just give it more time.-
Originally posted by hulkbacker
-Just because we don't know how something happened is no reason to insert "GOD did it!"-
-Nevermind what observation and current scientific study actually reveal. I have faith that my naturalistic philosophy will be proven true. Just give it more time.-
Originally posted by melatonin
These sort of probability arguments are the result of poor understanding of both the use of probability and the claims underpinning abiogenesis or evolution.
Meh.
Originally posted by B.A.C.
mel,
How is his understanding of probability poor? I'd like to see you do a better job at this. I think he understands and presents a valid scientific argument.
You're far more close minded then any of us. All the more power to you, but don't say he done a poor job or understands probability poorly.
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by B.A.C.
mel,
How is his understanding of probability poor? I'd like to see you do a better job at this. I think he understands and presents a valid scientific argument.
You're far more close minded then any of us. All the more power to you, but don't say he done a poor job or understands probability poorly.
lol, of course.
He is just pulling numbers from his ass. I've been over this a number of times here. Do you want me to do it again?
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by Fromabove
If all you were trying to do with our endless discission last night was to establish that life has a designer, I believe this.
No, I'm trying to show why the probability arguments used by creationists are BS.
Yet because the odds and probablility factors are too great to overcome, evolution by itself alone is left wanting at the roadside. It would never happen.
Now that we have established the number to at least 10^60, lead on so we can listen.
You haven't established that the odds/probabilities are too great at all. You've just asserted it without any real numbers. Indeed, all you've shown is that you really don't understand this stuff, but think it is impossible anyway. That's what's called an 'argument from incredulity'.
OK, 10^60 or 10^150. An event in this range and above cannot be due to random processes according to some people. You agree now I assume.
Now we have some numbers, I'll post again after dinner.
Originally posted by melatonin
OK, firstly. I'll extend on the dice ideas earlier, however, I'm going to ignore the fact that evolution is not just a random process. For a pure random process we'll use a sequence of cards drawn from multiple decks of 54 well-shuffled cards labelled numerically. The sequence of cards is random.
We take one decks of 54 shuffled cards. We deal them out.
The odds for that particular sequence is 2.7 x 10^71 (i.e. 1 in 54! or 1 in 54X53X52 etc)
We take three shuffled decks and deal them out, one by one.
That's 162 cards. The odds of this exact sequence of cards is:
7.29 x 10^213
That's impossible. How could that happen? According to Dembski such events with probabilities of this magnitude (> 10^150) cannot be random, there has to be a designer. But the sequence is on the floor in front of me, and we know it's a random process.
There's a problem here, I know what it is. And it is a problem that is common in such creationist probability calculations. Any ideas?
[edit on 22-1-2008 by melatonin]
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by Fromabove
Let me see if I understand you correctly, after you lay out the cards and know the sequence they are laid out in, you use the Dembski method to calculate the probability factor, is that correct for me to assume or am I still missing you on that point. I intend to give a statement on it once I know I'm following your method.
I'm not really caring about Dembski at the moment, I've just calculated the probability of the sequence of 162 cards sitting in front of me.
It's above Dembski's probability bound of what could be considered a random process. But we know the sequence was random, it was well-shuffled.
So what happened? What's gone wrong?
It's comparable to me looking at some protein or DNA sequence, and saying, 'the probability of that particular arrangement by chance is impossible, therefore goddidit'.
But in this case I'm looking at a sequence of cards produced randomly which was very improbable, indeed, should be impossible by chance according to some. Your god was not required.
[edit on 22-1-2008 by melatonin]
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by Fromabove
It is one thing to lay out all the cards and then calculate the odds of that happening in that order. It is another thing to see the finished product and calculate the probabilities of getting it right by natural selection and random probabilities to achive the end result of the finished product. And considering de-evolution probabilities and natural events that hinder and even extinguish the proccess.
You haven't really answered the problem.
A friend just came into the room and I asked him if it was possible for that sequence of 162 cards to occur by chance. He got out his calculator, did some maths and said 'not according to dembski'. This is comparable to looking at some particular protein or DNA sequence and doing some probability calculations then saying 'not by chance'.
Your really just starting to obfuscate. I'll get to Henry Morris' canard in time. He uses a process to calculate which is more akin to evolution, but still completely and utterly wrong. Thank you for your patience.
What is wrong with the calculation? We have a limit of 10^150 for chance processes, but the particular random sequence in front of me is well above that.
There's three obvious possibilities. The application of probability in the way I just did it is rubbish and, therefore, so are many creationist applications; events of 10^150 happen all the time; or a designer produced the sequence?
Just go away and think about it. Forget about evolution for now. This is a purely random process, evolution isn't - although you appeared to think it is. When I get to Morris, we'll get closer to what evolution can do.
[edit on 22-1-2008 by melatonin]
Originally posted by melatonin
Originally posted by Xtrozero
I think the problem here is the error by first establishing a preset path and then calculating the probability to reach the end of that preset path. In the case that I laid down 1 billion cards the probability that I did this is 1 (100%) and the probability of how they ended up is also 1.
If I write down a sequence of 1 billion cards and to randomly place the cards to that predetermined sequences is where the odds shoot up there around 10^60 or 10^150 area. Taking humans, if we are not predetermined to be here then the probability for us to be here is 1 (since we are here).
Bingo! That will do.
So, what I did was calculated for that particular sequence. But it wasn't specified beforehand. Thus, the lesson here is that applying probability post-hoc readily leads to BS numbers if applied incorrectly. If I now wanted to produce that specific sequence a second time, the probability calculation would readily apply. Indeed, every single sequence has the same probability. We had to have some outcome. An outcome was p=1, but any specific outcome was 10^213.
First lesson of the day. Evolution has no predetermined path. You can't look at a particular DNA sequence post-hoc and say 'the odds of that by chance is 10^167 therefore it is impossible' and expect to be making a coherent argument against evolution.
Firstly, evolution is not random, so this type of calculation would not apply. Secondly, evolution would in no way be aiming for a particular process. There would be innumerable processes which could also be an outcome. It just moves through fitness space producing organisms that can survive and reproduce. There is no target apart from that. Dembski does use this probability bound for specific outcomes, so he is above one misuse, but evolution doesn't work that way, it has no specific target.
Anyway, if that's cool we'll move on to Henry Morris' BS maths.
[edit on 22-1-2008 by melatonin]
Originally posted by melatonin
OK, I'll assume everyone agrees with the illustration of why we shouldn't apply probability in such ways for evolutionary processes. There just isn't a specific outcome, but many are possible.
Anyway, we'll actually apply a specific outcome for the next example, as that is what Morris does. It's a better example, as it is no more specific than adding new adaptive parts/components via mutation, but it's still not correct. He also makes erroneous claims in that article numerous times - most mutations are actually neutral, beneficial mutations have been observed.
So, what he is saying is that if we set a specific target of 200 components produced by mutation at a probability of 50% for beneficial, each being successive, we end up with a really big number (10^60).
The problem here is, firstly, that evolution doesn't require successive mutations and, secondly, that this must happen to one organism. If we actually do it using a proper evolutionary mechanism, it is very easy.
So, using the 50% stuff, it's a bit like heads or tails. We start with a head as the first component. We need heads each time for beneficial.
Thus, HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH (200 parts)
Using a proper evolutionary approach this is easy-peasy. Say we have one asexual organism that starts as 'H', it produces 4 new organisms in its lifetime which each having one mutation producing one new part, but conserves the Hs.
Thus, H -------> H/T H/T H/T H/T, then dies.
For the first generation on average we would have HH HH HT HT (HT die due to negative mutations - i.e. selected out).
Second generation we have 2 x HH -----> HHH HHH HHT HHT (HHT die) x 2 (i.e. 4 x HHH)
Third generation, we have 4 x HHH ------> HHHH HHHH HHHT HHHT (HHHT die) x2 (8 HHHH).
etc etc.
We would have hundreds of the 200 component organisms PDQ. Obviously this is very simplified - you could make the Hs available for mutation, we might have a probability for any mutation at all, we might have double mutations, sexual selection, neutral mutations, drift etc. But mutation and selection is very capable of producing new systems. Even if we do take the mutation rate as being much less, we would also have massive populations, and much more than single point mutations.
Of course, this is evolution. Abiogenesis is rather different, as selection would only kick in at a particular point. But again, we must take account of massive numbers of trials and long periods of time with no real specific targets, just chemistry doing its stuff making complex chemicals.
[edit on 22-1-2008 by melatonin]
www.geocities.com...
Some darwinists have put forward a fallacious criticism of arguments similar to the one advanced in this present WorldView Site article, by offering an explanatory illustration much as follows:
--- "Suppose we have a deck of cards before us. There are about 1068 (a one with 68 zeroes after it) different orderings of the 52 cards in the deck. Any of the 52 cards might be first, any of the remaining 51 second, any of the remaining 50 third, and so on. This is a tremendous number, but it's not hard to devise even everyday situations that give rise to much larger numbers.
"Now if we shuffle this deck of cards quite well, and then examine the resulting order, we would be justified in concluding that the probability of this particular ordering of the cards having occurred is approximately 1 chance in 1068. This is a very small chance. ---But we would not be justified in concluding that the result of this shuffle could not have possibly resulted in this specific ordering, just because its probability is (a priori) so very tiny ---because, obviously, some ordering had to result from the shuffling, and this particular one did!
And then --one shuffle after another-- we have new card-orderings which the probability calculations show to have almost "no chance" of occurring, according to the Intelligent Design advocates. But they keep occurring. --So, we see "highly improbable" things happening repeatedly --in fact, all the time.
Here is where the above criticism fails:
The card-shuffling illustration assumes that basically ANY ordering of the cards is an acceptable outcome --and, comparing it to life-chemistry, this would be the equivalent of saying that almost any ordering of the amino acids would work to build a functional protein. So, whatever one might randomly come up with is basically "easy" to achieve --no matter how "unlikely" the probability calculations might make it seem.
However, the critic unwittingly brings out the correct perspective when he says we are basically looking for one "particular ordering of the cards" --because the research just previously cited in this article (esp. from Behe), points out that --in reality-- only about one specific sequence of amino acids out of 1060 possible sequences is adequate to produce a properly folding protein which could be used by actual life. The rest are junk, and useless to life.
Therefore --to more accurately represent the life-chemistry situation-- the card-illustration should actually be restricted to say that there are only a few specific orderings of the cards which are the acceptable outcomes of the random shuffles of cards. That is, only about 24 out of the 1068 possible outcomes will do. --For example, the only good outcomes in cards would be: a well-shuffled deck must randomly end up with all four suits in proper numerical order starting with the Ace, then the 2, then the 3, etc., on up through to the King. All four suits must be so ordered. --Specificity is required.
It is the same with the "functional complex specified information" (FCSI) of life.
Such a critic's smoke-screen may sound good on the surface, but it misses the mark.
Originally posted by B.A.C.
The card-shuffling illustration assumes that basically ANY ordering of the cards is an acceptable outcome --and, comparing it to life-chemistry, this would be the equivalent of saying that almost any ordering of the amino acids would work to build a functional protein. So, whatever one might randomly come up with is basically "easy" to achieve --no matter how "unlikely" the probability calculations might make it seem.
However, the critic unwittingly brings out the correct perspective when he says we are basically looking for one "particular ordering of the cards" --because the research just previously cited in this article (esp. from Behe), points out that --in reality-- only about one specific sequence of amino acids out of 1060 possible sequences is adequate to produce a properly folding protein which could be used by actual life. The rest are junk, and useless to life.
Therefore --to more accurately represent the life-chemistry situation-- the card-illustration should actually be restricted to say that there are only a few specific orderings of the cards which are the acceptable outcomes of the random shuffles of cards. That is, only about 24 out of the 1068 possible outcomes will do. --For example, the only good outcomes in cards would be: a well-shuffled deck must randomly end up with all four suits in proper numerical order starting with the Ace, then the 2, then the 3, etc., on up through to the King. All four suits must be so ordered. --Specificity is required.
It is the same with the "functional complex specified information" (FCSI) of life.
Such a critic's smoke-screen may sound good on the surface, but it misses the mark.
Originally posted by B.A.C.
From my understanding both Natural Selection (not as random) and Genetic Drift are both random processes.
Natural Selection - serial and small random changes in traits. (Not random is the selection of these changes).
Genetic Drift - random changes in the occurrence of traits.
Or am I misunderstanding this?
Originally posted by hulkbacker
... I have faith that my naturalistic philosophy will be proven true. Just give it more time.-