Aliens Exist, but Cannot Travel to Earth: A Loss for the Believer's Community?

reply to post by Elepheagle


Lets face it , at the very least what we have to look forward to , is some very creative thought patterns, boosts to our synaptic transfer rates, and associated increases in our ability to think outside regular parameters but within logical possibility . No matter what the outcome of the wider debate, if you are not in the debate, then you cannot benifit from the information gained throughout.
Remember, many scientific experts agree that although academic ability is key to the sciences, the creative thinker can actualy be more succesful in some fields. This is what stops our scientific advances from stagnating and becoming old news, before the next big step. This sort of healthy debate brings all of us, on both sides of the discussion, the ability to interact better when the new science and technology become mainstream. If nothing else, its a fantastic way to keep up !

I believe intelligent life exists elseware in the universe, the sheer number of planets out there is so high that the possibility even in rare ocasions is still very good. Do they come here? Boy wouldn't that be neat, just imagine how things would change if they did, but unless they are from mars, I say no way. I do not think it is impossible for an alien craft to travel the galexy and visit us, what I do think is that they never would. We spent billions of dollars and lots of time and effort just to go to the moon and grabs some space rocks. Pretty dumb when you think about it, anyone with the technology to go farter will not make that kind of mistake. You can't travel faster than light if you are made of matter and just getting close to it would consume more energy than is available anywhere, Infintite energy, and if you did and even if you froze yourself for the long journey why would you waste tons of time and resources just for curiosity? I think if you asked chris columbus if he thought we would fly someday he would say yes or maybe, it's easy to think that we could since we can see birds doing it all the time. We don't observe any matter in the universe traveling faster than light, we don't see alien craft landing on our lawn and saying hello and we do know the laws of physics well enough to know that anything imaginable is not always possible, that is just sloppy guessing. There may be alien probes all over the universe to satisfy curiosity, but as for star trek and cruising from here to the crab nebula just like taking a trip to the mall, I have to say no.

reply to post by Xtrozero


Can we interact with them ? Well in the instance of our universe being a life form in its self, it might be that the vibrations of our existance are a form of communion between ourselves and the wider universe.
But what I am trying to get across is , that not all life in the universe would even register as MATTER to us. Theres nothing to say that only beings we can recognise count as life. There might be sentient clouds of gas living in gas giants. There could be intelligent slivers of frozen material that wouldnt register to us, but could have massive organic processing power due to their complex structure. For all we know , there may be planets whose entire atmosphere is a living thing. We literaly have no idea whats out there, let alone how we might communicate with it. You have to think much wider about these things and accept that not all life in the universe will nessacarily look like anything more than a rock, or a mote of dust, or a moon. The possibilities number as many times as there are stars up there in that sky. The goldilocks zone only applies to OUR kind of life... Dont let that fool you . As I said... God knows whats up there... its gonna be a blast finding out !

Originally posted by yeti101
reply to post by WitnessFromAfar

 

10? well you think the same as me. Extremely rare.

Seth shostak reckons theres at least 10,000.
[edit on 15-3-2009 by yeti101]

I think that you and I disagree on what 'rare' means.

Rare to me means not many are out there. It's like a high end retail store like Louis Vuitton. There are only about 10 of them on Earth, and there probably won't ever be any more than that, while 'the Gap' exists in nearly every town. The Gap would be common in that example.

So if there are at least 10 tech civs in our Galaxy alone, and you mutliply that number by the number of Galaxies in the observable universe, well, the answer to me sounds like it fits the word 'common' more than the word 'rare'. When you get to having a certain number of something, that something ceases to be rare. The observable universe is a really big place, I'd suggest you re-check your math when figuring an equation for tech civs.

What we have out there is an observable universe that is likely full of tech civs.

10 in our galaxy was simply my best guess on a low end estimate, or what I consider the absolute minimum that the math will allow for reasonably.

The number could be as high as 1 Billion.

And my problem with Shostak is not that he's a believer in Rare Earth theory (which it's pretty clear he isn't). My problem with Shostak is that even in the face of knowing what's out there, he insists that radio astronomy is the best way to find direct evidence of Alien Intelligence.

And he does this at the expense of other valid research programs, like manned space-flight for example.

Please don't continue to try and misrepresent my argument Yeti, I laid it out quite clearly the first several times.

-WFA

reply to post by WitnessFromAfar


lol just becuase the number sounds big in universal terms does not mean "common" you always take into account what your measuiring it against . 300 billion civs in the universe would mean 1 per galaxy. Not common at all.

10 civs out of 400 billion stars. That is classed as rare in anyones terms.

And my problem with Shostak is not that he's a believer in Rare Earth theory (which it's pretty clear he isn't). My problem with Shostak is that even in the face of knowing what's out there, he insists that radio astronomy is the best way to find direct evidence of Alien Intelligence.

how far into space do you think $20 million doallars would get you?. What better ways do you have for searching?

Surely, in all the billions and billions of solar systems out there, you don't think a single one has developed complex intelligent life forms, besides dear old Sol?

I've never stated anywhere in this thread that i think we are the only intelligent beings in the universe. I've held the same view for quite a few years. Rare earthers never said we are the only ones in the universe. They put it at 1 civ every 3 galaxies or something. So by your logic their book should be called "Common Earth" LoL i dont think they would agree with you nor would the rest of the astronomical community.

[edit on 16-3-2009 by yeti101]

Originally posted by yeti101
reply to post by WitnessFromAfar

 

you seem to be really confused. I think tech intelligence is extremely rare not unique, Microbial life probably common, complex life less common. And its called the rare earth theory. Not the unique earth theory. They dont think theres only 1 either.

Quite frankly there is enough circumstantial evidence within our own solar system to discredit/disprove the rare earth theory. However most skeptics refuse to acknowledge anything that goes against the status-quo out of sheer stubborness. Our scientists like to pretend they know more about the universe then any paranormal investigator, ufologist or even an astrologist for that matter. They suffer from a pseudo-superiority complex!

Originally posted by yeti101
kepler wont tell us if the planets are habitable or not. It might find hundreds none are guranteed to have complex life. It makes no diffirnce to the rare earthers how many kepler finds. We may have to find thousands before we find one similar to ours

Or perhaps most planets are habitable and nasa is playing us for fools. There is no way to be sure how rare or common intelligent life is in our solar system, galaxy and universe until we physically go there and/or improve our technology to the point were extra-terrestial communication is possible.

Everything else is pure speculation! And if we are going to speculate the most honest answer would be *anything is possible*.....

[edit on 16-3-2009 by EarthCitizen07]

Originally posted by yeti101
reply to post by WitnessFromAfar

 

lol just becuase the number sounds big in universal terms does not mean "common" you always take into account what your measuiring it against . 300 billion civs in the universe would mean 1 per galaxy. Not common at all.

10 civs out of 400 billion stars. That is classed as rare in anyones terms.

Actually, as I explicitly said above, I set 10 per galaxy as a low end estimate, the high end of which could reach approximately 1 Billion.

Originally posted by yeti101

And my problem with Shostak is not that he's a believer in Rare Earth theory (which it's pretty clear he isn't). My problem with Shostak is that even in the face of knowing what's out there, he insists that radio astronomy is the best way to find direct evidence of Alien Intelligence.

how far into space do you think $20 million doallars would get you?. What better ways do you have for searching?

Well, with $20 Million I could personally build you three prototype vessels capable of delivering a 3 man crew directly to the surface of Europa.

I know these things to be true from extensive component cost analysis and materials research.

How much exactly did you think that should cost? I'm willing to bet we'll find complex life forms there, and that's within our own solar system.

Originally posted by yeti101

Surely, in all the billions and billions of solar systems out there, you don't think a single one has developed complex intelligent life forms, besides dear old Sol?

I've never stated anywhere in this thread that i think we are the only intelligent beings in the universe. I've held the same view for quite a few years.

And yet you poke fun of the possibility of such beings visiting Earth. Irresponsibly irrational behavior in my view. Step up to the plate man, you're making yourself (and the ATS Skeptics Community) look bad.

Originally posted by yeti101
Rare earthers never said we are the only ones in the universe. They put it at 1 civ every 3 galaxies or something. So by your logic their book should be called "Common Earth" LoL i dont think they would agree with you nor would the rest of the astronomical community.

[edit on 16-3-2009 by yeti101]

Once again, it's only rare if you consider the universe ending at the edge of our galaxy, and ascribe to the lower limit (which we agreed was about 10 per galaxy, NOT 1 per 3 galaxies).

I don't consider the universe as ending at the edge of our solar system, and I believe that mainstream science would agree with that assessment. Once there are several of something (as in at least 10 tech civs per galaxy, and something on the order of millions of probable galaxies out there) the accumulated number gets HUGE.

Not. Rare. At. All.

Or was I in any way unclear?

-WFA

Many species don't have to travel far because they are here and if you think they don't have the ability to travel the Universe then I say stay in your cocoon.

Its put things into perspective when you realise that a recent German
super-computer has now estimated theres an incomprehensibly mindboggling 540 billion galaxies in our universe (each containing 10 to 100 billion stars).

When you think that we can only see two galaxies from Earth (depending on which hemisphere we're standing in) its all a bit humbling to say the least.

Image is taken from the NASA archive and is a digitaly enhanced double exposure taken over the (non light polluted)Kofa Mountains in Arizona,2003 May:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2b5618fb1df4.jpg[/atsimg]
apod.nasa.gov...
---

Telegraph article about there being at least 40,000 'Goldilock's Zone' planets just in our galaxy (nevermind the other 5000 billion other galaxies):

Researchers have calculated that up to 37,964 worlds in our galaxy are hospitable enough to be home to creatures at least as intelligent as ourselves.

www.telegraph.co.uk...
---

Hubble Image of entire galaxies going about their business
(each galaxy containing 10 - 100 billion stars):

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/f4335736e560.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/39a1c2c4f32e.jpg[/atsimg]
---

Article from British Broadsheet Newspaper,the Times:

We are not alone: 'trillions' of planets could be supporting life:
Almost every star similar to the Sun probably has a life-harbouring planet like the Earth in orbit around it, a leading astronomer said yesterday.

The discovery of hundreds of planets around distant stars in our galaxy suggests that most solar systems have a world like ours that is capable of supporting life, and many of them are likely to have evolved it, according to Alan Boss, of the Carnegie Institution in Washington.
His expectation was that 85 per cent of Sun-like stars had one Earth-like planet, and that some could have many more. Given that there are 100 billion Sun-like stars in the galaxy, and 100 billion galaxies in the Universe, there may be 10 billion trillion planets that are good candidates for life. That is a one followed by 22 noughts.

www.timesonline.co.uk...
-----

Quotes:

“Still, statistically the probability that there are other thinking beings out there is good… Under Drake’s equation you divide the number of stars in a selected portion of the universe by the number of stars that are likely to have planetary systems; divide that by the number of planetary systems that could theoretically support life; divide that by the number on which life, having arisen, advances to a state of intelligence; and so on. At each such division, the number shrinks colossally—yet even with the most conservative inputs the number of advanced civilizations just in the Milky Way always works out to be somewhere in the millions”
Bill Bryson

fogonazos.blogspot.com...


Other quotes about life elsewhere in the universe from various historical figures:

"To consider the earth as the only populated world in infinite space is as absurd as to assert that in an entire field of millet,only one grain will grow"
Methodorus.
Greek philosopher of the fourth century B.C.


"Heaven and earth are large,yet in the whole of space they are but as small as a grain of rice.......How unreasonable it would be to suppose that,besides the heaven and earth which we can see,there are no other heavens and no other earths"
Teng Mu.
Chinese philosopher of thirteenth century A.D.


"The universe is infinitely wide.
Its vastness holds innumerable atoms....
So it must be unthinkable that
Our sky and our round world are precious and unique....
Out beyond our world there are,elsewhere,
Other assemblages of matter making other worlds.
Ours is not the only one in air´s embrace"
Lucretius.
Roman philosopher of the first century B.C.


"Innumerable suns exist;innumerable earths revolve about these suns in a manner similar to the way the seven planets revolve around our sun.
Living beings inhabit these worlds"
Giordano Bruno.
Italian monk of the sixteenth century (also burnt at the stake for these views by religious bigots).


"Looking at the stars always makes me dream,as simply as I dream over the black dots representing towns and villages on a map.
Why ,I ask myself,shouldn´t the shining dots of the sky be as accessible as the black dots on the map of France?"
Vincent Van Gogh.


"Why may not every one of these stars or suns have as great a retinue as our sun of planets,with their moons,to wait on them?...They must have their plants and animals,nay and their rational creatures too,and those as great admirers,and as diligent observers of the heavens as ourselves...."
Christiaan Huygens.
Dutch physicist and astronomer of the seventeenth century.


"It is precisely because I believe theologically there is a being called God,and that He is infinite in intelligence,freedom, and power,that I cannot
take it upon myself to limit what He might have done.
Once He created the Big Bang.....He could have envisioned it going in billions of directions as it evolved,including billions of life-forms and billions of kinds of intelligent beings...
As a theologian,I would say that this proposed search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is also a search for knowing and understanding God through His works-especially those works that most reflect Him.Finding others than ourselves would mean knowing Him better"
Theodore M. Hesburgh ,C.S.C.,
University of Notre Dame

Cheers.

[edit on 02/10/08 by karl 12]

Certainly is pretty humbling karl12.....

The funny thing about this, is that we assume (at any given point in time) that we know almost all there is to know about physics, and then we constantly learn more that renders our previous understanding juvenile....and yet we still cling to what we "know"...

Just one technology (a FTL drive) makes this whole "they can't travel here" argument moot.... And while we don't have proof of FTL travel, we do have some ideas about it, and some theories...so it isn't completely in the realm of possibility even for us, let alone a possible civilization thousands of years more experienced than we are....

A simple look at our technology curve (which is exponential) should show that over time, a civilization's technology (and range footprint in the Universe) increases quickly over time... Is it too much to expect from alien civilizations? Not using the only yardstick we have....us...

I would like to suggest that there is not enough data to accurately analyse the chances of a race comming to discover FTL . We are the only tool using species that we have enough data to make scientific predictions about. Until we have been in contact with , and long standing companions of, other galactic civilisations , we will have no frame of reference for say , the developmental speed of a silicon based intelligent species. We will not have the cultural knowlege , or the scientific data available to be so arrogant until interaction has been the NORM for centuries. Thats the way I see this stuff.

reply to post by WitnessFromAfar


lol so between 10 & 1 billion now? wow really sticking your neck out there. Going from extremely rare to extremely common. Do you have anything worthwhile to say?

going to europa would cost billions for a manned mission. Thats fine but how are you going to get through 10km of ice? . Do you not think europa would be better suited to robot probes i mean theres big radiation problems there too.

[edit on 17-3-2009 by yeti101]

Originally posted by Merigold
Personally I believe there can be no doubt that life is not unique to our planet. Yet, I question whether or not there is any reason for life not from this planet to come here.

I don't think people really understand the distances involved and the level of technology required to travel these vast distances.

For die hard believers that think we're being visted, abducted and influenced well maybe it would seem like a "loss".

For myself knowing for a fact ( through some kind of scientific proof beyond any doubt) that life exsists would only be a vindication of what I already strongly believe.

You are implying you would know all possiblities for them coming here.

What if they are here to observe us because we are "offspring" of there's and decendants of them and they wish to observe how we deal with life situations?

Hypothetically if that was the case, you wouldn't know it was.
Just because you don't know the reason or can't imagine the reason does not mean there is a reason we do not know about.

There are things we know.
There are things we don't know.
And then there are the things we don't know that we don't know them.
( I think Rumsfeld was quoted as saying this )

There are things happening in this universe that we don't don't know. and then there are things that we couldn't even imagine are happening . and they are happening but we don't know of them so we have nothing to reference.

Originally posted by DaMod
You also have to keep in consideration that we have no idea what an intelligent species (beyond our own) might be capable of. 1000 light years might take them 2 mins. I'm sure they use a more effective system of energy and they might have unlocked the secrets of the universe, space/time, quantum physics etc. They may have more efficient astronomy gear too! (Sort of like the Kepler telescope we just launched only way better). For all you know they might be able to use space time as a lens and zoom in on us from many light years away when at the same time we are looking back simply monitoring changes in light intensity to determine if their planet is really there. Just some food for thought.

Exactly. We act like our way of travelling in space is efficient. It is anything but.

Our way of getting to space and travelling in it is so in-efficient when you think about all the wasted resources and money involved. Yet we think nobody could travel that far with what we have.

Well that's because they don't have what we have. They have something better, of which we can't yet imagine.

reply to post by EarthCitizen07

Good article! I remember reading it once before.

"Warp drive isn't doable now, and probably won't be for the next several millenia," said Cleaver.

I think that quote is a complete pile of crap. That guy completely underestimates the progress of technology! With amazing experiments like the LHC and activities at the National Ignition Facility, it will not be THAT long! Surely not thousands of years! It may be a couple hundred years, but I could imagine it happening much sooner if we're lucky! ...Especially if we do hit the so-called technological singularity soon!

[edit on 20-3-2009 by GrayFox]

[edit on 20-3-2009 by GrayFox]

reply to post by Elepheagle


As soon as one accepts that ET exists, one also had to accept the overwhelming possibility that they are thousands, if not millions of years advanced in their science and technology. Then it indeed becomes possible that they may have technology to travel astronomical distances.

In fact the theoretical basis for interstellar travel already exists in our current science, so of course if we will be able to do interstellar travel soon, then an advanced ET already can. Most people don't realise that FTL is not necessary to travel in space, so even with non FTL technology it is possible to travel in space. In any case there is no reason to assume that FTL technology is impossible.

Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar

Originally posted by yeti101
reply to post by WitnessFromAfar

 

] It's like a high end retail store like Louis Vuitton. There are only about 10 of them on Earth, and there probably won't ever be any more than that,

-WFA

I have no idea why but this bothered me. There are almost 100 LV stores in the USA alone. So saying there are only 10 in the world is extremely inaccurate. You should do a quick search before you make a very false statement. Also by the way more stores show up yearly across the globe. Just read a little about LV and you will find this. Sorry I studied fashion and mostly LV so I guess that is why this little snippet bothered me.

Originally posted by GrayFox
I think that quote is a complete pile of crap. That guy completely underestimates the progress of technology!

To my mind, the technology will be the relatively easy part, even if it takes hundreds of years to figure out. The tricky, perhaps impossible part will be the energy requirements. You can have a warp-capable starship, but if you don't have the "fuel" to make it go, it's just a giant space station. You're probably going to need to control several star systems through slower than light travel just to get enough mass to convert to energy for your drive to function, or utilize a once-in-a-lifetime nearby supernova to power it. If you're ridiculously advanced millenia beyond us, perhaps you could induce supernovae in suitable stars, but it would be a very limited resource, and prone to ethical problems.