posted on May, 1 2009 @ 03:53 AM
I am new here and have been browsing around for years for entertainment, info et al.
I trade for a living. The majority of my friends and associates are traders. I do not wish to irk anyone in anyway; however, no one I know is
building long term long positions. This "rally" is generally accepted as a hope rally and does not have big money support
News is generally accepted in my circles as "garbage" and you trade your charts. Normal people trade the news. Most of us do not. If you are
familiar with the term technical analysis the charts tell you everything you need to know. News is a distraction that doesn't not alter price
targets, but will divert it temporarily ( sometimes radically). the market is not really random. Believe it or not.
Fundamental investors ( news, data etc..) are more prone to investor in multi year spans. The few I have met and chatted with are all still short
equities and finance from a broad view. long coms and metals. etc. Most people other then the general public do not use this method. It is inefficient
and more.. how do you say.. "guessing".
When we profit we are not "lucky". Also, most of us(my friends etc) saw this coming since about 2006 ish. So did the fed etc ( since early 2001).
They are not fools. These guys are not inept or retarded; however, it is much easier to think that then to think someone would ahave known and was
making money off of you. For us to make money you have to lose money sorry and short selling is not to blame. That is asinine.
The market moves in cycles and waves. The market doesn't care about you or your 401k it is a zero sum game. Smart money takes dumb money. If you
don't trade you are dumb money generally.
I pulled my friends family and clients out of the market long between 13-and 11k and they will stay out until we crest the high again or we show a
convincing turn at 5100 or 2500. There are much better investments. What about all the lost money potentially on a rally? Would you rather be in
wishing you were out, or out wishing you were in? Right. This is not gambling. You never worry about what you could have made only what you could
Contrary to common belief we do not look at companies earnings or inside tips etc.. all you need to do is look at a bar chart or candle chart. It is
all right there. The market is all patterns and geometry.
What we are seeing now, again, is a bear market rally. The term is "pump and dump" How this is foreseen to go is:
At first good news will trickle out and and then some more, etc.. and people will start to buy back in ( Joe and Sally 401k) retail speculators
will enter the market looking towards 15k etc (get rich!!)... casual investors may even double up to recoup their losses. Positive news (inexplicably)
will come out driving this sentiment. CNBC will be telling you good things.
Eventually it will get to a point ( if it doesn't collapse before then ) where even the most cynical people will have to admit it is time to buy and
they will buy in as well. Around that time it will be market top and the selling will occur. The shoe falls or lifts when it seems like everyone is in
or out. That is not an accident nor is it random.
We are targeting , again, 10-11k. I am looking towards the fall however a lot of my friends are looking much sooner then that(which i disagree with)
around the 9k level. We wait and watch and react.
I am not even going to go into the plethora of reasons as to why this is not the end. You cannot "fix" these problems they must work themselves
out. No one can "fix" this is has to run its course. There is nothing to fix, it is in motion. I don't "want" to see people on the street but
wishing won't change the market. It knows where it going regardless. Personally I am looking to ride short dow futures until 51 or 25 neither seem
out of question. sorry. Something to look at might be FAZ. might not. be safe and smart guys.