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Global Meltdown is Over. Now is time to make Money.

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posted on Mar, 27 2009 @ 08:50 AM
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reply to post by Walkswithfish
 


Put trailing stops on your investments!




posted on Mar, 27 2009 @ 08:57 AM
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reply to post by siryancelot
 


I usually hate to admit that some with oposing views is correct. I make exception here. Your are wasting your time here.
This thread is in the proper spirit as i see it.
Nothing to fear but fear itself!
Nothin happenin in Calif they didn't create there own selves.



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 12:22 AM
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Hope this will convince some of you:

Six Reasons I Am Calling a Bottom And Declaring a New Bull Market


ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. -- OK, so you're one of millions of investors impatiently waiting on the sidelines, sitting with $2.5 trillion cash under your mattress, waiting for the right moment, that signal screaming: "Bottom's in, start buying!" Yes, it'll go down again, but the bottom's in, thanks to a great March, possibly the third best month since 1950, so it's time to jump back in and buy, buy, buy!



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 02:04 AM
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The economy is still fundamentally broken. Optimistic economists call a bottom at end of 2009, pessimistic economists are calling for a bottom in 3 years, the average is 2 years off. A few extremists are calling a bottom either now or 25 years from now.

Reasons this is not yet the bottom:

Dismal Quarter-end financial reports to come: Bleak Q408, Q109, Q209 reports will drag down the markets. Consumers who were saving 1.7% in 2008 are putting cash in the bank, loss of confidence is not filling up corporate piggy banks.
PersonalSavings
www.bea.gov...
GDP 4Q08 -6.3%
www.bea.gov...

Unemployment rising: Jan09 - 7.6%, Feb09 - 8.1%, Mar09 - 8.5% -- Government forecast is 10% end of 2009 and 12% mid 2010.
data.bls.gov...

Residential Real Estate continues to fall: Values are down 40% from last year, meaning lots of underwater properties and accellerating foreclosures, especially in California. We're not done turning bank assets toxic.
www.dqnews.com...

Commercial Real Estate about to collapse: Closures of chains (Mervyns, Circuit City, etc), factories and layoffs mean empty buildings. More toxic assets on bank books. This is coming in 2009-2010.
PropertyWire
www.propertywire.com...

Baltic Dry Index shows no one is ramping up: A measure of shipping costs of goods and raw materials remains low. Containerships sitting idle have hit a historic high of 453 ships sitting idle in March 2009. Factories and retail are not gearing up for 2009. Or 2010.
BDI
www.slate.com...
Zero'd
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Asia Times report: Dollar Crisis in the Making
Very interesting series of articles from Asia Times
PART 1: Before the stampede - Mar 14, 2009
www.atimes.com...
PART 2: The not-so-safe haven - Mar 17, 2009
www.atimes.com...
PART 3: China inoculates itself against dollar collapse - Mar 18, 2009
www.atimes.com...


[edit on 31-3-2009 by Dbriefed]



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 03:35 PM
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reply to post by Dbriefed
 


I think if you factor in the tremendous effort the administration is putting in, to try to fix this mess. The optimism of the people, and a lot more stable stock market. Also the realization of the fact that if we all don't start pushing in a positive direction then we will continue in the direction of the last four years.



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 04:06 PM
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Originally posted by Donny 4 million
I think if you factor in the tremendous effort the administration is putting in, to try to fix this mess. The optimism of the people, and a lot more stable stock market.


Hmm... Russia and China pushing for another global currency, GM and Chrysler about to enter Bankruptcy soon and a soon to be retail real estate problem. And you think things are getting better? I just met someone with a 720 credit score who couldn't secure a mortgage still. They have the money and the credit and still are having problems. I would not be jumping on the bandwagon just yet.



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 08:41 PM
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reply to post by pavil
 


I think you are correct to be skeptical we all should be.
Wishful thinking does play a part in most things.
I hope yours, mine and most of the folks on this thread contribute to the positive completion of your friends mortgage
I think we are more like on a ambulance than a band wagon and instead of cardiac arrest we are all on our way for a bypass.
I am not a doctor. More like the guy on the gurnie.



posted on Mar, 31 2009 @ 09:47 PM
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Originally posted by rattan1

Originally posted by siryancelot
I honestly can't even waste my time with this thread or the OP. This mess hasn't even begun to get bad. The rally will be short lived......hey, its so great out there, eh? Go tell all those living in TENT CITIES IN CALIFORNIA. I mean, I don't even know where I'd start to correct this false pessimism. We owe more as a nation than ever before. People don't trust the dollar, and why should they. Obama plans to add more spending, just like the last asshole President. Just wait for the HYPERINFLATION. We are much like the Weimar Republic, its eerie.


I sincerely think that those living in the tent cities in Cal would rather hear that they can hope for things to get better for them rather than hearing you.


Great logic...... Hope doesn't put food on a table. Hope doesn't sign the check every other week. Hope doesn't hire 300 local Detroiters, or San Franciscans, or New Yorkers. I, thankfully am gainfully employed. However, nothing is more dangerous than FALSE hope. See, when it does all go belly up, then all the hopeful will say....WTF!!! It was all getting better you told us! (As the anger and rage swells within them).
It's much better to prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best, instead of just sticking our heads in the sand and saying...I hope it gets better.

And lemme say, Bush effed us. Now, Obama simply pushed Bush off us, and said, my turn for sloppy seconds....as he continues policies that are ridiculously absurd to even the most untrained economist.



posted on Apr, 1 2009 @ 08:30 AM
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reply to post by siryancelot
 


I am glad to see you are sort of shuffeling back and forth.
This tells me you are not convinced completely enough to endorse
complete negitivity. Yea, when they got us down and they are woopin our butts, they will tire. Much like the guys in fight club. No one stays on top forever. A smile is way attractive.



posted on Apr, 2 2009 @ 03:26 AM
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Let us get back to the point here, that the mighty rattan1 is on the money, in an amazingly accurate way. Look at the charts!

I'm waiting for the man rattan to make another call!!!

Doesn't anybody see this?

The magnificent rattan1 is even manifesting a coded reference in his original post.


I'm following this rattan man to the money.

Are you going to call the next major turning point? I'm bookmarking this thread if you plan to call the next big break in the market. I have to see that.



posted on Apr, 2 2009 @ 11:40 AM
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i want you to save this thread......and 6 months from now retitle it "TEMPORARY BEAR MKT RALLY-I WAS WRONG"

People are PLAYING on others HOPES. The MSM does this all the time....they KNOW people want to see their investments go back up....so they are willing to believe almost anything to convince themselves it will- SO THEY FEEL BETTER.....this rally could go up to 10,000 doesn't matter...Unless you are smart and sell then.....coprorate profits are going to be dismal for a long time with house prices still crashing.....and unemployment rising........the only thing this HEAD FAKE will do....is make investors more upset they didn't sell when they could have taken some of their lost profits back

google THE quiet coop written last week if you want to know what needs to be done to solve this thing from a man with experience

the mark to market change is boosting the rally today and in a short time the banks will post "better than expected" earnings and then the market will soar again.....enjoy it while it lasts.....i wrote about this in november here.....

www.abovetopsecret.com...

oh and i also think Unemployment (or at least the preferred measure reported by the MSM) is Peaking very soon (prob. around 9 %) .......sure over the next whole year...more and more people will be losing there jobs....a lot faster than anyone is getting re-hired...so how could this be true (and not reflected in the unemployment numbers?)....simple those who were unemployed in the fall in large numbers will soon be losing their unemployment benefits and be taken off the unemployment calculations (at least the number reported by MSM)......so when you are looking for the real unemployment numbers it will be more accurate to look at U-6 for the real data as more and more unemployed people (will be unemployed for over 6 months) and they will no longer be counted among those in "the workforce".....no prob right......wrong it takes political pressure off the U.S gov't to make the tough decisions necessary to get us out of this economic mess . they are TESTING THE LIMITS of perception management and people's willfull ignorance

[edit on 2-4-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Apr, 2 2009 @ 07:53 PM
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To some of you who has been calling me an Ignoramus:


The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216.48 points (2.79%) to 7,978.08, its highest close since Feb. 9. The Dow is up 20% for the last four weeks, which would be the best winning streak over that period since May 1933, when it rose 31%. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 23.3 (2.87%) to 834.38, also the highest level since Feb. 12. The Nasdaq Composite rose 51.03 (3.29%) to 1,602.63, and is now positive for the year to date with a 1.6% gain. Research In Motion added $3.47 (7.6%) to $49.09. After the bell, the BlackBerry smartphone maker's shares surged as its fiscal first-quarter outlook impressed investors.
Demand for shares in an initial-public offering illustrated how retail investors were eager to get back into the stock market.


Many who are still in doom and gloom mode will only watch opportunities slip away....



posted on Apr, 2 2009 @ 09:42 PM
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"

if you were talking about a short-term trading opp i would still agree...but you haven't mentioned this...probably so you can say you were should things not play out later....?



the FASB changes will be nothing more than a clever efficient way for the banks to legally mark their toxic assets to Fantasy values again....and presto they will post Good EARNINGS and boom go the financials....anyone and their mom can see this in the near future...

(on a side note this sounds like it conflicts with the Geithner bank plan unless Pimpco is just willing to take a 7% hit (and overpay) in return for getting higher value's for the hundreds of billions of toxic bonds they hold)

Rattan i would not be giving you such a hard time on this thread if you would admit that this is an illusionary boost (that is yes a good profit opp.....but also will be a wonderful opp. to short on the downside as this is not sustainable)

So unless corporate earnings for every sector (outside of financials) can manage to hide billions in liabilities off balance sheet by some FASB magick then corporate earnings going forward will be poor.........and this will be reflected in stock prices....and more people collecting unemployment

[edit on 2-4-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Apr, 3 2009 @ 03:14 PM
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The numbers are now in the record books. Four up weeks in a row!

Amazingly positive vibes going on now without any serious breaks down.



posted on Apr, 3 2009 @ 03:28 PM
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reply to post by cpdaman
 


The mistake you are making is not realizing just how oversold the markets have become. Most major averages are still down 40% from their highs. Earnings are down no where near that number. Throw out the banks and we are talking 10% down on average. things would have to get much worse in order to even justify current prices. The PTB are determined not to let things get that bad. Thus stock prices move up. Even bad news, that is not as bad as some thought it would be, will have the effect of moving stocks upward. That is just how it works and fighting it is a losing battle.

From April 1932 to April 1933 the markets rose 133% in the face of unemployment which continued to grow to 25%. Why? Because the goverment started throwing money at the problem just as they are doing now.



posted on Apr, 4 2009 @ 02:29 PM
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Originally posted by rattan1
Many who are still in doom and gloom mode will only watch opportunities slip away....




The stock market is not gaining value, it is merely zeroing out. Basically, this is a short-term buyers' market like everybody has been saying, NOT a bastion of hope for long-term investors or people who are broke. Unemployment hasn't gone anywhere and the housing market is still down.

You're the one in doom and gloom mode saying that people are letting opportunities slip away.



posted on Apr, 4 2009 @ 10:00 PM
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Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by cpdaman
 


The mistake you are making is not realizing just how oversold the markets have become. Most major averages are still down 40% from their highs. Earnings are down no where near that number. Throw out the banks and we are talking 10% down on average. things would have to get much worse in order to even justify current prices. The PTB are determined not to let things get that bad. Thus stock prices move up. Even bad news, that is not as bad as some thought it would be, will have the effect of moving stocks upward. That is just how it works and fighting it is a losing battle.

From April 1932 to April 1933 the markets rose 133% in the face of unemployment which continued to grow to 25%. Why? Because the goverment started throwing money at the problem just as they are doing now.


quite simply you are missing a big piece of the puzzle....now follow me

you are assuming that the high stock prices from the last several years were legit.....THEY WERE due to HIGH LEVERAGE...that is being unwound from the system......

.this leveraged allowed asset prices to rise.......and revenue's to rise ...........without the leverage the market is going to correct to a much lower level and COMBINED with rising unemployment AND less consumer spending you have another reason why the stock prices would go even lower.......

stop letting your emotions that wish the market would go up cloud your beliefs about where/why the market is going .......i would love for the U.S to get serious about job creation....jobs that actually produce stuff......and then watch income's raise and consumption follow and then stock prices.......but it isn't happening......at least until the gov't gets tough on the financial oligarchs

and yes the DJIA was oversold based on technical indicators several weaks ago but after the banks report better earnings (thanks to MSM illusion) the stocks will reach VERY VERY overbought conditons per MACD and RSI indicators) and the shorts will go on parade (watch for the uptick rule to be re-instated) as the OBAMA administration is very intent on selling this bear mkt rally as a turning point but the market will not be built upon sand again for long.

[edit on 4-4-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Apr, 5 2009 @ 08:16 PM
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 39.51 points, or 0.50%, to 8017.59, the S&P 500 rose 8.12 points, or 0.97%, to 842.50 and the Nasdaq Composite picked up 19.24 points, or 1.20%, to 1621.87. The consumer-friendly FOX 50 added 4.61 points, or 0.73%, to 632.18. Led by solid gains for financial stocks such as Morgan Stanley (MS: 24.08, 0.95, 4.11%) and a Research in Motion (RIMM: 59.29, 10.2, 20.78%) inspired tech rally, the markets proved once again to be resilient in the face of the latest dreary economic reports. The end result sent the Dow to its highest closing level since Feb. 9.


The Market is above 8000 points now and according to some of you here we should see a massive sell-off in a few days as we reach 8300-8500. That sell-off is suppose to cause the great collapse that many of you are hoping. So is it going to happen? lets see.......



posted on Apr, 6 2009 @ 05:06 PM
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there may be a pull back on the next day or so....but i think this rally has legs (at least until bank earnings) come out in another week or two


the big number the S&P would have to cross is 943 (i believe i will double check when i get back)



posted on Apr, 6 2009 @ 06:29 PM
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reply to post by rattan1
 


Anyone who studies the markets, especially historical trends.. can attest that from Feb-June is the better part of the year for bull markets. For some reason thats just the way it works.. March is quite often the best month of the year, most likely I would say that this is because most companies are normally in the Green at this time of the year, slide into the red through the summer, and pick up the profits back to green during Nov-Feb, carrying profits into the next year.

However, for the past 17+ months most companies are red all year.. the S&P was hoping the rumors of bank profits where true and thus make the average earnings percentage on the S&P rise accordingly..

Well, still no profitability, companies are still deep in the red, and Bank profits are now officially clandestine. They are no longer bound to report their assets are market value, meaning they can claim to have billions in assets, and really have millions.

Markets do generally increase before company profitability does, however, I am siding with a few Bloomberg reporters this morning who where discussing the cost of shares to profit ratio on the S&P, which is dislocated in what "true" value would be perceived.

In short: No, the economy is not fixed, NEVER look at stock indexes to tell you the whole story. Companies are still deeply in debt, still over producing, still bleeding capital and cash. More and more it's looking like we are going to be hoping job cuts scale back for next Christmas, because that's apparently where we decide -- did we do enough to crawl out of the recession .. or are we doomed to another year of misery?



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