Worst Case Scenario: The Countryside

Originally posted by waterdoctor
reply to post by Northern Raider

 

Most of the population here in the good old USA, 53%, are dim bulbs on the tree and a darwinian event will take a great toll. Most have their heads in the sand about whats going on and the idea of ever ever taking their Hummer off the oil is unthinkable. That said there are a lot of people here that are getting ready, what for they are not sure but they are getting ready.

I have thought about the hoards of city folks streaming out to the hills but I take some comfort that I am over 200 km from the nearest population center over 100,000 and that 200 km is some hard tough country. That said when I was with search and rescue people when lost and afraid always headed for the highest point in the country. The dim bulbs will head up hill or drive till there Volvo runs out of gas. What you do for these starving masses is to knock down a cow in front of a few thousand of them so they can eat. That should thin the herd.

To be perfectly blunt and utterly honest Water Doctor ( Or should can I call you hydrologist ) ) I dont give a damn about the future prospects of the British, Australian or American sheeple, they chose the path of putting their safety and security totally in the hands of their governments. I mean they are indeed in good hands as the US, UK and Aussie governments never **** up do they ?. Nationality and patriotism have little meaning to me as an individual trying to survive in a nasty world. I prefer to work closely with the enlightened IE the survivalists and preppies who have the brains to realise their security is 100% their own responsibility. Its just those people are rather scattered across three or more continents. I think most of the sheeple will sit and wait for the promised government relief to arrive , until they are to weak to travel, then they will turn on each other. Sadly a lot of survivalists who think a gun, jeep and rucksack will ensure their survival are also going to expire early.
Respects
NR

reply to post by Northern Raider

Good post I feel the same way.

Imo a true survivalist is already living an alternative lifestyle away from cities or has a pretty good plan for getting away.

I really don't fear large bands of people invading my isolation. As others have stated I am also many miles from civilization and in the wrong direction. There's just not enough homes or towns to pillage your way through this country. It just gets more open and vast the further south you go.

I agree with Northern Raider people will deplete city resources before thinking about moving on. By that time some will be weak or confused tending to cling to the masses for security. Attaching yourself to a large group of fleeing panicked people could go bad fast. You would be competing with a large group of unpredictable stressed out people in unfamiliar territory. In times of overpopulation and stress rodents will eat each other.

If these hordes of people are on foot they will not be prepared for survival without tools. Sure we have dead standing trees but you will not be able to harvest the amount of wood needed with your bare hands. Especially enough to facilitate a large group.

I know many think cows are dumb and just stand there and wait for you to knock them over well out west the cattle are true survivalists. They're big and they can do some damage they're smarter than you think. It's open range here and cattle love to wander you gotta know how/where to find them. The local ranchers call their cattle

What I see happening around me is the neighboring land owners will start trickling in arriving in vans, campers, buses whatever will give them shelter. They're showing up already. These are good people a lot like many of you and we welcome them. For the most part we leave each other alone respecting each others want of privacy but if broke down or stuck on the road or in need we are there for each other with whatever we got to offer.

i live in an island 45 sq miles . it was occupied by the germans in 1940 . on that 45sq miles were 40,000 islanders 14,000 german millitary personnel and 6,000 slave labourers.
fishing was only allowed during daylight and with a gaurd.
livestock was catalogued , if a pig went missing then there was serious repercussions.
the germans bought in there own supplys until the french coast was liberated. many of them then started stealing anyfood stuffs they could lay their hands on. theirs a well known photo of 2 german service men holding the decappitated corpse of a small cat that they had caught for food .
the islanders made it throught o the end of the war because the red cross ship vega was allowed to deliver aid in late 1944
my point is that an island rich in food resources and under rationing managed it would seem to stay self suffecient for 4 years but the moment more demands were put on the by uotsiders then the delicate balance broke and near starvation ensued. so if you live in a small community and see a million misplaced people heading your way with no authority to organise them , then panic . humans are naturally inventive and sharing round a little knowledge on food storage, cooking, gathering will helpeveryone in the end

Originally posted by Lookingup
Yes, I think this is true. I get a good laugh when I read about how many people are going to take to the wilderness and live off the land when TSHTF. Now, I know some of them camp, hunt, and live where this is possible, but others are dreaming.

I live about 40 miles south of downtown Houston, TX. There are large pastures and tracts of farmland down here. Also, rice irrigation canals and bayous with nice fish. Can you imagine what will happen when a good million hungry, crazed people leave there looking for food? After about day number 3 without food, your brain really starts to think differently. There won't be a fish, cow, chicken, goat, food stash, or garden left. It will be like human locusts ravaging everything in their path.

People talk about the Great Depression, but back then there were less than half the number of people as now, and a lot of people back then weren't nearly as spoiled as today. Of course they didn't have the conveniences we will miss either.

I only hope that none of this comes to pass and a year from now I am laughing about the precautions I have taken.

I think you overestimate the city dwellers ability/motivation to leave the city in the first place. Millions of these people will die in situ for the simple reason that they've never known anything else and always expect the "city" to mollycoddle them and keep them fed, clothed etc etc. This "includes" the homeless. Ask your average lifetime city dweller how to catch Perch or bream. I'm gonna go with "I have no frikken idea". These locust like hordes of refugee city dwellers just won't exist. See: Hurricane Katrina.

[edit on 12-3-2009 by Zenagain]

Originally posted by da pickles
i live in an island 45 sq miles . it was occupied by the germans in 1940 . on that 45sq miles were 40,000 islanders 14,000 german millitary personnel and 6,000 slave labourers.
fishing was only allowed during daylight and with a gaurd.
livestock was catalogued , if a pig went missing then there was serious repercussions.
the germans bought in there own supplys until the french coast was liberated. many of them then started stealing anyfood stuffs they could lay their hands on. theirs a well known photo of 2 german service men holding the decappitated corpse of a small cat that they had caught for food .
the islanders made it throught o the end of the war because the red cross ship vega was allowed to deliver aid in late 1944
my point is that an island rich in food resources and under rationing managed it would seem to stay self suffecient for 4 years but the moment more demands were put on the by uotsiders then the delicate balance broke and near starvation ensued. so if you live in a small community and see a million misplaced people heading your way with no authority to organise them , then panic . humans are naturally inventive and sharing round a little knowledge on food storage, cooking, gathering will helpeveryone in the end

We are planning on coming to your lil island for a holiday this year,Do you folks still call yourselves Beans ?

Originally posted by Morningglory
reply to post by Northern Raider

 

Good post I feel the same way.

Imo a true survivalist is already living an alternative lifestyle away from cities or has a pretty good plan for getting away.

I really don't fear large bands of people invading my isolation. As others have stated I am also many miles from civilization and in the wrong direction. There's just not enough homes or towns to pillage your way through this country. It just gets more open and vast the further south you go.

I agree with Northern Raider people will deplete city resources before thinking about moving on. By that time some will be weak or confused tending to cling to the masses for security. Attaching yourself to a large group of fleeing panicked people could go bad fast. You would be competing with a large group of unpredictable stressed out people in unfamiliar territory. In times of overpopulation and stress rodents will eat each other.

If these hordes of people are on foot they will not be prepared for survival without tools. Sure we have dead standing trees but you will not be able to harvest the amount of wood needed with your bare hands. Especially enough to facilitate a large group.

I know many think cows are dumb and just stand there and wait for you to knock them over well out west the cattle are true survivalists. They're big and they can do some damage they're smarter than you think. It's open range here and cattle love to wander you gotta know how/where to find them. The local ranchers call their cattle

What I see happening around me is the neighboring land owners will start trickling in arriving in vans, campers, buses whatever will give them shelter. They're showing up already. These are good people a lot like many of you and we welcome them. For the most part we leave each other alone respecting each others want of privacy but if broke down or stuck on the road or in need we are there for each other with whatever we got to offer.

Your thinking is similar to mine, thats why I picked Liberal KS and Gasrden city as my prime retreat location if I got stuck in the US, Plenty of water, space etc, not to far from the forests on SE CO, but far enough that the city dwellors will have died off before they got there. I was considering Taos ( to hot) or Salida ( To high) but found Liberal to be ideal.

Personally I don't think the hordes/ masses will go very far.

Worse case I think groups like the red cross would try to set up aid camps... feeding watering stations. said hordes would flock to those and burn up whatever dwindling resources they have there.

Others will seek out places they know, National Parks, lakes where they spent summers. seek out warmer climes Calif, Florida.

Proof is in what we saw happen in Houston with the recent hurricane. people moved inland but not far inland, many stayed put, or went to live with nearby family...

I just don't see a scourge of the countryside unless you happen to live near a big city or population center

reply to post by Northern Raider


we sure do and proud of it . if you look closely at the old politics the uk belongs to us in a weird french norman sort of way . looks like its going to be a good summer for your trip

If you do some research about how people behave when they have to go without food for any length of time, you'll find out that they become less active.

So, most people who are in the cities will be waiting around for help. They will consume whatever they have on hand, but most will continue to stay put.

When they run out of food, they won't know where to go. Most won't go very far. Then they'll probably congregate in groups and wait for help to arrive. Just look at the Katerina videos.

If you live within 5 miles of a major city you might have troubles. If you're further out, you may see some city dwellers but I don't think you'll see too many.

I'm not buying this scenario . I think that the country people will last longer, stick together more and generally do much better.

Only one problem.....Us in the country have GOOD guns and we KNOW how to use them. Also, we will band together to defend our resources.

Im not in the least bit worried about gangbangers armed with AK47's and pistols. They will not even get within range to use them if they came down my block!

reply to post by Nifron


You forgot to add that Chinese economic boom fueled by US consumption has raised the economic status of 300 million or more Chinese workers.

The OP assumes a lot of things going wrong. Even during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, 99% of folks were cooperating to survive despite the chaos. Even with dwindling resources, climate change and other factors, I strongly believe that humanity after much suffering and hardship will come out of the next 100-1000 years battered but no worse for wear.

Originally posted by crgintx
The OP assumes a lot of things going wrong. Even during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, 99% of folks were cooperating to survive despite the chaos. Even with dwindling resources, climate change and other factors, I strongly believe that humanity after much suffering and hardship will come out of the next 100-1000 years battered but no worse for wear.

Unfortunately, this is to start, a worst case scenario theory; secondly, the fact is that given the time frame of the scenario that i am proposing things will act out a lot differently than Katrina. to start, NO received aid, in some form of another and due to that they didn't end up out of control as much as they would otherwise.

Since the situation i am proposing results in 0 ability to communicate long distances, there will be no ability to ascertain the extent of the situation, and no way to call for help.

Unfortunately, the article in the original post was part of a series, and i have missed one that would precede this one, which i explained that the populations would at first, on the large scale, settle in the suburbs rather than immediately escape into the countryside. However, after a month or 2, when people start dying in large numbers, and food becomes almost none-existent (and people have figured out by now that no aid is coming), they will attempt to reach the only sources of food they will know of: farms. as a last ditch effort of cause, which will cause deaths to occur in the millions more.

imagine, the refugees from Katrina went to Huston, and met a column of refugees heading the exact opposite direction to NO. im sure that the events proceeding would be markedly different than what anyone has witnessed before.

Truly, some wonderful thoughts are being put into this thread. Morningglory, I love where you headed in this.

Just a couple of additions that some touched on.
Immediate survival means immediate surroundings. People will stay close to where they know. Country folks, I don't think you have too much to worry about except maybe cleaning up a couple of dead strays of the side of the road that did manage to motivate beyond the city limits.

For the most part, people will stick around in the city waiting with hands out for a hand out. That is what they do now and I don't see that mentality changing any time soon. Lack of food will result in lack of energy and perhaps depression. Many will just give up, lay down and die, especially the ones that have grown so "fat" from their comfy paperbacked lifestyles.

Planning raids on the countryside, maybe a few but those country folk won't take kindly to that and will deal with raiders the same as if they were under attack from a terrorist. Back to cleaning up bodies again.

Governments have been planning worst case scenarios for decades. FEMA camps exist. The extent of their use won't be known til the time comes. For most of these government planned "shelters", disaster of any magnitude will prompt the doors to open, or should I say, the fences to allow entry. They are designed to keep people in, this is true. Some have even been equipped with large incinerators, I guess this is just to deal with the massive death count and waste that is anticipated.

How many good hearted people that have enough to share will deny someone in need? Not many. For the few stragglers that do make it to the rural areas and ASK for help, they will get it. The few that have that notion of entitlement thing, well back to cleaning up bodies again. What is pretty funny is the ones we have to worry about aren't the po' folk, its the rich folk that lose everything. Poor people have been dealing with worst case scenarios for the better part of their lives and have developed survival skills. But those rich ones, oh boy, can they reak havoc when their fat bellies begin to shrink, because they don't know how to survive but they do know how to take.

Did I earn my daily bread?

How long can people escaping to the countryside last? Once the gasoline stations run empty flight will be reduced to walking or riding a bike (good idea). One night in frigid temperatures is enough to kill a person from exposure. People will be thirsty and drink water with human waste in it. People will eat rancid food. I see people flocking to where there is shelter (ironically cities) and food relief is trucked in in bulk. Many of those fleeing will be discouraged by floating bloated bodies in creeks running under the roads they are traveling on and turn around.

People turning to drugs and alcohol will cling to their addictions and not desire to leave areas where they have known suppliers.

National Parks will not be deforested per se. Survival on your own will require hard labor and smart on you toes thinking.

Originally posted by stikkinikki
How long can people escaping to the countryside last? Once the gasoline stations run empty flight will be reduced to walking or riding a bike (good idea). One night in frigid temperatures is enough to kill a person from exposure. People will be thirsty and drink water with human waste in it. People will eat rancid food. I see people flocking to where there is shelter (ironically cities) and food relief is trucked in in bulk. Many of those fleeing will be discouraged by floating bloated bodies in creeks running under the roads they are traveling on and turn around.

People turning to drugs and alcohol will cling to their addictions and not desire to leave areas where they have known suppliers.

National Parks will not be deforested per se. Survival on your own will require hard labor and smart on you toes thinking.

A farming friend / group is vital, especially if you are unknowing in the ways of the wild.
This is why I keep saying to the Northern Alliance boys to get out and about and make themselves known to the country folk more.
That way if we roll up somewhere, being a known entity will make it a lot easier to survive post- SIT X.

Originally posted by WatchRider

Originally posted by stikkinikki
How long can people escaping to the countryside last? Once the gasoline stations run empty flight will be reduced to walking or riding a bike (good idea). One night in frigid temperatures is enough to kill a person from exposure. People will be thirsty and drink water with human waste in it. People will eat rancid food. I see people flocking to where there is shelter (ironically cities) and food relief is trucked in in bulk. Many of those fleeing will be discouraged by floating bloated bodies in creeks running under the roads they are traveling on and turn around.

People turning to drugs and alcohol will cling to their addictions and not desire to leave areas where they have known suppliers.

National Parks will not be deforested per se. Survival on your own will require hard labor and smart on you toes thinking.

A farming friend / group is vital, especially if you are unknowing in the ways of the wild.
This is why I keep saying to the Northern Alliance boys to get out and about and make themselves known to the country folk more.
That way if we roll up somewhere, being a known entity will make it a lot easier to survive post- SIT X.

I've lost the URL to your NA web page, can you please U2U it for me again?
Respects NR

Originally posted by funny_pom
reply to post by RcknShdw

 

and will eat corn straight off the plant, or eat raw meat from a freshly killed cow.

What you never ate corn straight from the stock? Man you are missing out.. that is the best... But then again i grew up a on a farm.

But it all depends on your location and the population you are in.
Myself i will be in the woods, and will do fine, But its nothing new for us, we hunt, grow veggies and fish all the time.

I have to agree though there are several i have read post on that talk about hunting and surviving and you can tell from previous post they have had that they closest they have come was sportsman Chanel and watching survivor. There is a big difference between thinking you can hunt and actually killing something and gutting it and processing it.
Those that cant or have never should befriend and lend what talents they have to the ones that can.


Great advice posted above. those "country Folk" could just teach you how to save your life. There is a lot to learn from the quiet shy type. Things you would never imagine.

reply to post by RcknShdw

First off, to The Utopian Penguin: I will agree with you on mob mentality of things. However, if you look at America, I don't think you'll see large roving groups of people. I talked with some fellow employees at work today and most said they would hunker down in their homes and gun any feds or military out if they had to (Northern Ohio is not a place to screw with people!). Most of them said that they are already planning for something, canned foods, water, etc. Which was odd, all of them have heard about the FEMA camps/coffins and the possibility of martial law!! My question, if I thought this was pretty low key conspiracy buff stuff, why are people that I know never watch the news/etc hearing and talking about the FEMA related SHTF??

If you look at scenario the OP presented ...No high tech as a result of solar flare or EMP event.

So as a result communication is down. Mobility is down.

At first there will be a segment of the populous that will try to flee.
ie City based survivalist thinkers.
Bif and Buffy in their Volvo's

"If I can escape the city all will be well"

Over time others will try to reach out from the city in some way.

There is a predictable process that will occur in waves.

The people you appear to be surprised about knowing of Sit x or Fema or even Mothman,don't have little name tags saying so...

That quite unassuming person you engage in idle banter with at work may be a facade.

In reality they may have grown up on a farm,know at least 3 martial arts own several weapons(and know how to use them in a chaotic situation)
and be the leader of a survivalist commune/group with all the trimmings.

But they would never tell you this because it's one of the rules more or less

Listen lots, say little and my skill set is none of your business.

If someone plopped me in the middle of nowhere...

I would just start trying to build a new civilization... from the first fire up.

But don't look for the name tag to say that.

There are allot of people that are unaware and unable to think out a situation and resolve any hurdles that come their way.

They think they can... some have no clue at all

They have their BOB packed, they take in the information,they practice.
and they over look some detail and poof ....they die.

Some people are inventive and lateral thinkers.
Some people will never speak of certain things.
Their just way too smart to say it.

Originally posted by Northern Raider

Sadly a lot of survivalists who think a gun, jeep and rucksack will ensure their survival are also going to expire early.
Respects
NR

Come now NR, its just the fact you cant own the fancy guns and jeeps that we can that drives your jealousy. The only way to survive is to state that you should own the largest gun, the biggest 4X4, and can look up 100 different links online to save your sorry a$$.

OP. Those away from the cities will do well. I post on here alot, that those in the cities are doomed. They are. Not just for the obvious, but because they feel what NR alluded too. Even the "survivalists" in the cities are for the most part fakes. Doomed to fall on their own sword while leading other half wits to their doom.

As for roaming mobs from the cities coming to rape my land and my belongings. Bring them. Bring them all. We are an armed group, with very good elevation, no harm shall come to us. Granted, this location was chosen well by a group of like minded people. Not everyone has thought ahead that far however. But for the most part, those that know and love their lands, will not give them up, no matter the number of imbeciles coming from the cities.

Whitewave. What you speak is true. Not something I say much on here. Those from the cities, those without will be given a shot by the so called country folk. Not just here, but worldwide. Always need a hand to mend a fence or dig a ditch. Those who can do will be spared, those with an ill tounge or who seek a handout, Im sorry.

In the end, those in the cities, good luck. Come into mine or a number or communities, you will find little to no solice without works that we need. Those who seek to rape and ravage our lands, we are ready for you. Those who think a big gun, a 4 wheel drive, a BOB and a fast tounge will save you, watch out. Many "survialists" will fall prey to what you have or what you say without action of your own. But there are some of us who see you coming.

What hasn't been mentioned is something that travelers and visiting relatives often point out it seems some city people are spooked by all this unpopulated/undeveloped land. They don't like the emptiness of it. They want the 7-11 on every street corner all those familiar landmarks. Often they don't have a clue where they are and their cell phones don't work. They quickly find themselves out of their element and don't like it one bit. I've had some people ask "how long does this nothing go on for?" Adding that they will feel better when they start seeing people and cities. Some really get upset by it and I think it surprises them a little. Not sure what kind of impact that could make on people's decision to leave the cities but I tend to believe the ones who do make the effort and successfully find their way out will be looking for a better way of life.

Imo peggy m sums up the common man when she says

How many good hearted people that have enough to share will deny someone in need?

A good example that comes to mind is the first responders & volunteers on 9/11 many of whom gave their lives to help others in need. There will always be jerks but I think most of us are in the same boat and are willing to extend a hand.