Predicting 2010 unemployment U-3 of 18%, U-6 at 34%

Just a heads up.


It is possible, that within the next month or so, unemployment applications in California could jump by upwards of 200,000.


It is unlikely that benefits will be paid to all applicants; but the shear glut of applications themselves will have an impact on several fronts.


This could be an interesting Summer.

Thought I would post this, maybe some others could do their own calculations.

It's a little bit hard to see, clicking on the link above the graph should help. The point is that in June 2008, the civilian non-institutional population was 233,627,000, there were 145,738,000 employed, and 87,889,000 not employed. Since then the population has grown by 2,028,000 and 5,542,000 have lost their jobs.

Total unemployed has grown to 95,459,000, an increase of 7,570,000.

Meanwhile BLS stats show that unemployment was 8,662,000 in June 2008 and 14,729,000 in June 2009, an increase of 6,067,000.

Looks like the BLS numbers don't count 1.5Million people. If they did the official U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.6%.

Interesting the stat 'Persons who currently want a job'. Reference: ftp.bls.gov...

files.abovetopsecret.com...
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2145a383f57f.jpg[/atsimg]

[edit on 1-8-2009 by Dbriefed]

reply to post by Rockpuck


Where did you learn all this stuff RP?

You are usually pretty right on with most you say and you say it compellingly.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I have no idea. From here and there I suppose.

reply to post by Rockpuck


You should try your lucky as a researcher or something for a corporation or some govt entity you would prob do pretty well at that as opposed to being at a bank

reply to post by Rockpuck


I agree that according to normal economics unemployment is a lagging indicator. However I suspect that the following depend on stable employment:

- Consumer Spending (which is 70% of GDP)
- Mortgage defaults and foreclosures
- Residential real estate pricing
- Commercial real estate occupancy and pricing
- State tax revenue

Fewer jobs means less spending, will the percent decrease in GDP match?

Laid off people will stop making mortgage payments.

Selling your house next door to bank owned or foreclosure sales will continue to push the value of your home down.

Five million fewer employees will free up commercial real estate space that expected a normal growth to seven Million employees.

As far as declining state taxes (due to falling property taxes, falling income taxes), they can't squeeze blood from a turnip. Which is what they're trying to do.

[edit on 2-8-2009 by Dbriefed]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Perhaps, as of now I mainly study History and Philosophy. (I have no idea why to this either)

reply to post by Dbriefed

- Consumer Spending (which is 70% of GDP)
- Mortgage defaults and foreclosures
- Residential real estate pricing
- Commercial real estate occupancy and pricing
- State tax revenue

Quite right, but it will still operate on the core principles of Capitalist Economics.. a threshold must be reached, they always do. You cannot decline infinity.. you will ALWAYS have a rebound. The question is not if, but when.. how low do you go?

And once the threshold is met, the only other way such a system can move is up.. you cannot decline any further, and in a capitalist system stagnation would also be impossible at such low levels.

As far as declining state taxes (due to falling property taxes, falling income taxes), they can't squeeze blood from a turnip. Which is what they're trying to do.

This is the most fascinating part to watch. Only Congress can create the money supply.. so when states run out of money, they cannot simply create the funds. I find it interesting, as the last time more then half the Union was near bankruptcy, was the Civil War, and the States printed their own currencies.

The crooks in Washington have been using the excuse that illegals don't take away American jobs, because no one really wants those jobs. I bet there are plenty of Americans, whose unemployment benefits that have run out, that would be happy to take one of those jobs. Of course, the problem is that those employers won't hire Americans, because they would never be able to get away with the labor violations that they practice with the illegals.
I don't blame the illegals, they're trying to feed their families, and their government has done nothing to help them, but I can blame OUR government for looking the other way. Enforce the immigration laws, and unemployment will go down...period.

reply to post by Rockpuck


I like phil. as well.. but I much rather talk about it with a sugar cube or two lol

Any developments on this front ?

is the unemployment now 10.98% in reality and 20.3% U6 wise ?

It should be 13.45% by early january then.