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Picking a Market Bottom: Why the Pros Are All Wrong

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posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 05:24 PM

Picking a Market Bottom: Why the Pros Are All Wrong

Picking a stock market bottom during the past year of mayhem has been like playing a game where nobody ever wins.

Really . . .

So far such pronouncements have had one thing in common: They have all been wrong.

No kidding . . .

But how could so many people have misread the market so dramatically?

You tell me . . .

Some of the smartest minds on both Wall Street and Washington have tried numerous times to identify an ultimate low for stocks and have failed—in some cases miserably.

Are you telling me that some of those smartest minds who failed have a higher IQ than President Obama who has designed a rescue plan and is poised to lead the nation out of the economic predicament?
I hate to see the implications: Obama is not a certified genius and if that's what it takes to bring the happy days again, or at least to prevent the nation moving to skid row, then here goes the hope -- unless the "smartest minds" are actually pretty dumb and Obama is not.

[edit on 3/6/2009 by stander]

[edit on 3/6/2009 by stander]

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 05:50 PM
I saw this today and question the source now.
Good thread idea tho.
I say 4000 but its an uneducated opinion.

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 05:58 PM
I pulled my money out some time ago.

The reason that so many firms, people, and publications say leave your money in is that usually, you lose when you pull your money out at a low spot and the market recovers.

Unfortunately, we are in for a real recession/depression and it's not going to recover for a bit.

Where will the bottom be? I don't have a clue. When it reaches bottom will we know? Probably not.

When it starts to recover will we know? Once again probably not.

Ideally, the investors will jump back in when the market levels off and/or starts to grow. Until I see some positive news not only about the US economy but the world economy, I'm not jumping back in.

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 06:11 PM
Waiting exactly until the market bottoms will get you no where, it's merely speculation. Until then, just long SDS and welcome a healthy return.

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 06:33 PM

Just sayin'.

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 06:58 PM
R seems to think 2800.

Of course you would have had to see it on his site, because he seems to change it everytime he wipes his behind.

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 06:58 PM
I guess the market bottom will be at 2800-3500 this coming september.

Anyone wanna bet against me?

posted on Mar, 6 2009 @ 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Chevalerous
I guess the market bottom will be at 2800-3500 this coming september.

That's amazing coincidence, coz the economic recovery is expected to take place somewhere between the years 2800 and 3500 -- providing Obama won't change anything in his rescue bailout plan.

posted on Mar, 7 2009 @ 06:52 AM
for individual stock investors, the market already hit bottom...

the only reason they have any stocks left in any portfilio is because
it would be too economically painful ... so they will maintain at least a
shell of a once complex portfilio.

the reason is that even the worst companies worst market cap
is still a target for a merger or takeover...
And who can accurately predict that some presently out-of-favor
company will not replace another in the DOW component make-up in the weeks to come.

the market is always changing and dynamic, so there are only relative market bottoms (the low points in graphs)....
its when the speculators and the fund managers support a new mixture of market leaders...
and when the publics imagination is caught up in a sea-change of sentiment (paradigm shift of 2012?) that the magical 'new bull market' begins again.

but right now, the market has no faith or confidence that reforms, oversight, shennagians, prosecutions are being molded into a comprehensive re-vamp of the Fed Res/Treas , FDIC or the banking rules,
or the financial system as a whole.... so, the stock markets will keep
reacting in the negative as long as the uncertainty exists...
much like last weeks (Mar 2 - Mar 6) daily trading pattern


ps: i'm still in the process of selling a 100 or so of a food stock at a profit,
and rolling that $$ into 1 or 2 fallen stocks that still pay dividends-
plus have several subsidiaries which can be sold off to maintain the dividend payouts -> or subsidiaries that could be spun-off from the parent company
~either situation will still be good to my pocketbook~

I feel that i have from now until Oct-Nov '09 to reallocate...
or roll the procedes into my ROTH account gold

[edit on 7-3-2009 by St Udio]

posted on Mar, 7 2009 @ 07:20 AM
The question we need to ask is: Can the stock market go negative? lol

Farmers can't get the credit they need to plant their crops.

The FDIC will be broke in 6 months. No matter; the fed will just print more money to keep the FDIC afloat. Wow, that won't affect the market.

Go to yahoo. Click on business. Click on the DOW. Click on the large chart. Have it show the history of the market from 1928 to now.

There are only two times in history the DOW has sloped almost straight down for this long of time (2 years). 1920s and right now. Don't take my word for it. Look at it for yourself.

The crash of 1929 was a 300 point drop. In two years, the DOW has lost about 7000 points! Over 50% of it's highest achieved value.

Anyone that buys new stock between now and the day the FDIC runs out of cash is a moron. If you buy stock on Monday in ANYTHING, it will lose over 50% of it's CURRENT value after the FDIC crashes. Federal aid to the FDIC or not, this is about to get ugly.

Most of America doesn't have a clue what is about to happen.

Do you realize how close we are to having to pay $100.00 for a one pound box of Cheerios?

Remaining calm, cool, and collect is like waiting to get out of the WTC so you don't have to deal with all the chaos.

Meanwhile, that second plane is headed straight for you.

That's the day the FDIC takes bail out money from the Fed. And THAT is the day the depression starts.

Go back to work. It's no big deal. Everything is fine.

Peace until war.

posted on Mar, 7 2009 @ 07:29 AM
I agree with 4000.
That's what it was before they hyper inflated it and started there market manipulation journey.
Oh then they hit the dot com bubble?

Of course this was just the manipulators, taking a profit before pushing it higher.
Look to the total real asset value of the company's stocks that make up the index's.
And I mean real value, not bs lies.
You will see, the DJIA at 14000 was utterly absurd.
This was fake irrelevant money pushing it up.
I mean after all, they needed somewhere to launder the drug money and money they stole from the tax reserves, right?

posted on Mar, 7 2009 @ 10:54 AM
While I got out of the stocck market in Dec 07...retiremnet and all, I would have said about 4000.

However, yesterday I heard Robert Prechter on the radio (Tom Sullivan Show) and he said 1000 this year.

He is using the Elliot Wave theory...

Tulips anyone?

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