What Are the Odds of a Depression?

What Are the Odds of a Depression?

online.wsj.com

Central questions these days are how severe will the U.S. economic downturn be and how long will it last?

The most serious concern is that the downturn will become something worse than the largest recession of the post-World War II period -- 1982, when real per capita GDP fell by 3% and the unemployment rate peaked at nearly 11%. Could we even experience a depression (defined as a decline in per-person GDP or consumption by 10% or more)?

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I saw this on CNBC, www.cnbc.com... in which the man actually raised his probability 30%, and the more I hear about government actions and people's underlying optimism that isn't set in reality, the more I think it is possible. I don't know of anything that could possibly wart this thing off, the monetary policy if the Fed has pushed borrowing rates low, but the banks are still afraid, and now GE looks like it might go under...if GE was to go under, I would almost guarantee we'd slip into Depression, GE has been an American powerhouse for decades.

online.wsj.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

It's going to be way worse than a depression.

It's going to be total destruction, most of the world's population will be dead very soon.

If people don't wake up and stop the foreign banksters, the criminals, thugs, murderers from stealing our money, corrupting and buying off our politicians, turning our military on us and on the world in general, and they are going to use it to round us up. They are going to spray us down with bird flu, send their minions around for forced innoculations that will kill everybody who takes the shot and the person so "innoculated" will be a walking bird flu dispensary, infecting everybody he comes in contact with.

The eugenicists are serious about depopulating the planet. Many people on these threads will be jumping for joy to think this is actually happening, something they had long dreamed of, just as the intellectuals in the colleges will be delirious about it as well.

Originally posted by yellowcard
...and now GE looks like it might go under...if GE was to go under, I would almost guarantee we'd slip into Depression, GE has been an American powerhouse for decades.

1 oz Gold buys:

140 GE

501 GM

914 C


Not to mention - GE closed 6.66

GL

Its all but gauranteed.

I dont understand the hard and fast rules of definition.

Todays economy, is based on a 1920's system.

1920's....

We are in the year 2009.

Economies have exploded, they have become so complicated, so technical, so worldwide and so dependant on many things.. that for us to continue to use a 1920's definition and model is just plain insanity.

Now, this is how I judge just how bad things are.




Back in the 20's/30's a certain % drop spelt disaster,
But, look at the sheer volume of that drop, i was minor.


Our drop at the right hand END, is absolutle collosal compared to anything experienced.

I think, we need to face up to the reality that this snowball is quickly becoming an avalanche!

The Odds of a depression?
Well, with Obama in office, its a sure thing.
$1000 on black.

We're in it.
www.layoffdaily.com...

I doubt very much that things will ever recover given the fact that nobody in charge has even begun to address and resolve the REAL ISSUES that has caused all of this mess.

The first issue, and the most major one, is our leaky economy ~ in other words, our trade deficit. If we keep having more dollars fly out of the country than those that ever fly back in, they'll never be able to stop with these bailouts, because they will have no choice but to keep printing more and more money to replace all those dollars that your beloved China-Mart shoppers keep shipping overseas. Frankly, given the current instability of the US dollar and its likely collapse, I'm surprised that any foreign nation that we trade with are accepting those funny money dollars in exchange for all that junk we import from them. Eventually, countries like China and those OPEC nations will wise up and realize how stupid they were for exchanging their national resources and labor for those pieces of IOU paper and ink.

The second issue is the irresponsible American consumer ~ CREDIT! How can you expect a nation of irresponsible idiots that live beyond their means on IOUs to ever recover from this mess and become financially responsible for themselves? To fix this mess, you're gonna have to reeducate damn near ever American and teach them economics and math so that they can begin to properly manage their own lives.

And the third issue is the federal government. I've seen some pretty dumb irresponsible people in my life, racking up tens of thousands of dollars buying crap on credit to fill their homes with because they really couldn't afford it, but this current government takes the CAKE! Think about the most stupidest financially irresponsible person you know, we all know someone like that, right? Well, THAT is how our government is behaving. And so, so long as STUPID is running this nation, our national financial situation will always be comparable to that of that stupid person we all know. To fix this, we must prohibit the government from living on credit too!

What we need to do is get off this fiat/funny money standard. What we need is a currency that IS as valuable as the denomination printed on its face. In this way we will be exchanging REAL VALUE for REAL VALUE, instead of exchanging IOUs printed on funny paper for REAL VALUE commodities.

Nope, this current fiat economy is doomed. So are all the financially stupid people.

[edit on 5-3-2009 by Divinorumus]

Originally posted by Divinorumus
Eventually, countries like China and those OPEC nations will wise up and realize how stupid they were for exchanging their national resources and labor for those pieces of IOU paper and ink.

Dumb like a fox maybe, and smart enough to use those hollow promises to pay as a means of securing real assets - and - stockpile essential resources against future production. We've already read about China' publicly stated intention to increase it's official Gold reserves - and - inroads in the African and Aussie resource sectors - next on the agenda, Canada with it's cash strapped 2nd & 3rd tier miners. I have to believe that Bay St. will welcome the spenders from Beijing with open arms. Last weekend, the 2009 PDAC in Toronto hosted more than one symposium geared towards networking with Chinese investors & mining professionals.

China's spending spree likely to include Canadian companies

GL

If the United states GDP shrinks another, 3-3.5% over the next 2-3 months, then the US is in depression.

Couple it with the 3rd quater .5% loss
Couple it with the 4th quater 6.+-5% loss

You'll reach %10

A depressiondepressiondepression is thought to occur when the GDP declines by 10% or more in aaa year’s time. Economists tend to differ over the exact percentage of decline. The Great DepressionDepressionDepression in the US and in Europe after the Stock Market crash of 1929 showed aaa steadily declining GDP in the subsequent years.

Being 2 quaters in a row equates to a 6.5-7% downturn in GDP, the next 6 months are going to spell out wether a depression is on the way.

And with the current unemployment levels, international trade grinding to a halt, bankers hording all the nations money,

Id say, its a foregone conclusion.

There's so many different numbers and percentages being thrown around everywhere its hard to take any of them seriously. We know the economy has basically backtracked 12 years and its only getting worse but as for a depression...we don't know until the numbers come in. It's certainly a recession and people are treating it like a depression but we haven't hit the ledge yet so whose to say what will happen.

I just think its too much of a coincidence that in a short amount of time the whole world has begun to crumble before our very eyes. Far too much government intervention and corruption in business going on for this all to not be related somehow.




[edit on 3/5/2009 by AceOfAces]

Originally posted by OBE1
I have to believe that Bay St. will welcome the spenders from Beijing with open arms.

They are certainly holding enough US dollars to come over here and buy up half of our homes. Seriously, they do .. I ran the numbers yesterday and it came out to around 42%, and if you add in all the other nations holding US dollars, well, they could buy all of our homes and become the new Americans. The amount of foreign debt we owe per capita is just utterly shocking!!!

Maybe the mortgage companies and banks will welcome them foreigners with open arms too if enough folks here loose their homes and the banks need to unload those unoccupied homes in order to pay back their depositors and investors. A lot of these homes being foreclosed upon aren't even selling at the foreclosure auctions because few are even willing to offer the minimum opening bid required to pay off these homes existing mortgage amounts and back taxes.

I really do think the US will need to ultimately declare bankruptcy to get out from under this mess. Yeah, the consequences of THAT are quite horrible too, but damn it, we can't pass this ballooning debt off onto our descendants, they'll be defecating on our graves if we do.

Once this economy totally crashes, I think we need to round up all these politicians and financial experts that have been telling us all that things are gonna get better and prosecute them all for fraud. This whole federal government is a Ponzi scheme. I mean, look at how social security works - it works EXACTLY like a Ponzi scheme (they are paying the old investors with the latest investors investments). Them politicians and the federal government make Bernie Madoff look like a saint.

Originally posted by Common Good
The Odds of a depression?
Well, with Obama in office, its a sure thing.
$1000 on black.

Normally I hate when people will use the race card but what you just said was out of line and not funny. It's one thing to go back and forth between political parties but there was no need to add in the $1000 dollars on black comment.

This is where you jump in and say wow your the one with the issues because I never even meant it that way! Your smarter then that, I have read your posts so don't try and play off the racism in that remark.