Alternate Futures: King Khan

Back in 1996 this paper predicted several possible futures. Now, 13 years later (and ahead of their predictions) one of their scenarios seems to be at least semi-plausible? Seems like the the "King Khan" scenario fits best what we are seeing? You can read the PDF if you want to see the futures we AREN'T moving towards. But here's the cliff notes version:

Alternate Futures for 2025: Security Planning to Avoid a Surprise

REPORT HERE AT FAS


In the run-up to the 2012 presidential election, the incumbent US leadership tried to prime the economy with a federal spending surge. The attempt failed. The federal debt hit $10 trillion in early 2013, and on 2 July the stock market crashed and a depression began. [10] While Europe was affected, Southeast Asia was such a large creditor region they escaped relatively unscathed. China's gross domestic product passed $15 trillion in 2014 [11], the same year the yuan became the de facto international currency standard.

In 2016, US unemployment reached 18 percent, and the government faced the "great dilemma": Should it allow banks to foreclose on homeowners, creating millions of new homeless people, or should it protect homeowners and risk bank failures? [12] It chose the latter. In the aftermath, over 10 thousand banks failed and the government scrambled to keep the monetary system afloat.

Meanwhile, the Harmony project was a great success. An outstanding technical achievement, it sparked a desire for the Asian powers to work more closely together. They began annual economic conferences in 2017, at which time a framework for regional free trade was established.

In 2018 the United States Supreme Court reversed its 1990s immigration rulings, paving the way for a reduced federal budget. Riots resulted as non-US citizens violently protested the sudden loss of welfare and other social benefits. The National Guard had to be mobilized to quell the disturbances. Over the next four years, the Congress and the president completely streamlined and restructured the Washington bureaucracy.

The financial markets began to react positively, and in 2022 the economic recovery began. At the same time, Taiwan and China set aside their past differences and merged peacefully. Following that merger, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia began to push for economic unification with China. Beijing hosted a conference in 2023 where a series of agreements were signed leading to the formation of a new confederation. In 2024 China, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia merged into the largest economic power the world has ever known.

[footnotes]

[10] Several economic pressures may converge to produce a depression around 2015. For a discussion of some of these see Tom Walker, "Bulls Beware When Boomers Cash In," Atlanta Constitution, 24 March 1996.

[11] China's annual economic growth rate has averaged 9 percent since 1979. Its growth reached 12.8 percent in 1992, 13.4 percent in 1993, and 11.8 percent in 1994. "Wait and See," Far Eastern Economic Review, 31 August 1995, 40. The World Bank forecasts China to become the largest economy in the world by 2002. "Asian Survey," The Economist, 30 October 1993, 14. For arguments that China will remain cohesive and the leadership will adapt to handle this growth, see Yasheng Huang, "Why China Will Not Collapse," Foreign Policy, Summer 1995, 54-68. For arguments that the communist "dynasty" will collapse see Jack A. Goldstone, "The Coming Chinese Collapse," Foreign Policy, Summer 1995, 35-53.

[12] Texas already has passed laws that prevent loss of the primary home if the owner declares bankruptcy

I don't know really if this is relevant so take from it what you will. This popped into my mind and so I searched for the link and made this thread. This future seems like the worst scenario of all based on the content of the paper and also please note that we are way ahead of schedule on this timeline.

Now all we need as many theories as to how we can jump from this timeline to one of the others. Please post any comments on this paper here and any ideas you have as to how we could switch from the KK scenario to a more favorable one for the US?

[EDIT: linked to FAS but you can find the .pdf easily via a search.]

[edit on 5-3-2009 by smallpeeps]

thanks for this


will make some good reading I think.

reply to post by smallpeeps



What an interesting document. Compared to the attitude today it seems quite hopeful in some aspects. Like the humanity of humanity nudges us in the right direction. I've only read a bit. Maybe I should stop before it gets too doomy.


interesting times!

Originally posted by stikkinikki
What an interesting document. Compared to the attitude today it seems quite hopeful in some aspects. Like the humanity of humanity nudges us in the right direction. I've only read a bit. Maybe I should stop before it gets too doomy.

Well, if you are reading the King Khan scenario, which is the one shaping up in the US now (roughly), then that's the worst of all possible futures which had been gameplanned so where do you see the hope? But thanks for the nice comments! I think this is scary to most people, but it needs to be known and discussed.

As for this document itself, I think I see what you mean, that "hope" comes from knowing that people gameplanned and maybe they have ideas. BUT if the people gameplanning have huge blind spots (the subjects of drugs and money laundering are never mentioned in this report) then the value of their analysis lies only in the parts which relate to reality. People with huge blind spots can still provide good intel, imo. You just need to add in the parts they are ignorant of.

Here we see the US produced a team of military persons who gameplanned their view of the future (without using the word 'drugs' or 'heroin') and here is the economic collapse which one of their scenarios called for (King Khan), years ahead of schedule. It is crucial, NOW, to think about how to swing the US around into better position with the potential Khan power-block, which this paper admits "is potentially hegemonistic".

On this timeline/scenario as they have gameplanned it:

1: All Federal, welfare and social programs will end abruptly.
2: US will leave all foreign bases to rot; 1/10th military budget.
3: US will maintain only a few nukes to maintain MAD as the only gambit.

Also, please note the following quote:

New doctrine and tactics are necessary to wage wars with nations better armed than ourselves. The National War College has engaged in studies to develop tactics based on mujahadeen operations. The ability to wage war with greatly outmatched forces is now a requirement in a world where the United States is no longer a superpower.

So we built up Rambo, then the Mujahs, now we get to become Mujahs ourselves, within the US? I suppose being prepared is the best defense?? Surely if Khan comes about and China is partnered with Indonesia (which seems very difficult) then the Muslim versus Communist/atheist angle could prevent Khan from taking shape. So the CCCP merges with the Muslims of Indonesia, creating Khan, which would be threatening to the US in TWO ways then (Commies and Burkhas) and combine this with a US that really has to act as the Muja's did, hiding and striking.

In this scenario as presented, Khan is held in check by the other four powers, India, Russia, UK and the US is the lynchpin.

Also this scenario presumes the F-22 is cancelled and Khan produces a copy, thus gaining air superiority, etc. Thus far, only Barney Frank wants to kill the Raptor. It's in Obama's hands now.

Perhaps, just maybe, we can even sell the Raptor and use the proceeds to fund whatever doomsday device we need next? Air power was lost by the US in this scenario so I suppose that's a good side to the report that as of yet, it has not been lost. We still do have air power dominance but we lack the economic base to keep it ours, or to keep it secret.

But those who control the Raptor, where is their loyalty? Will they see Americans starve and is that an acceptable part of this future think scenario? I am all for retaining Air Power but the hegemonistic forces will rebound on us if we don't share tech soon. But sharing of tech enables gaps where whole schematics can be put on a thumbdrive.

If we see the "Harmony Fighter" revealed within a year or two, and if it looks suspiciously like a F-22 Raptor, then this scenario will have become true. In the meantime we at this point have just the economic collapse and the second half (copied F22) hasn't happened yet.

Didn't Rolls Royce MIG engines get very quickly copied by the Chinese and Russians right after WW2? ANSWER: Yes.

Gates to cut several major weapons programs

Gates announced a broad range of cuts Monday to weapons spending, saying he plans to [end] production of the $140 billion F-22 fighter jet.

Okay, guess I spoke to soon.

So the only question now that we won't be building and/or exporting the Raptor, is how long will it take the tech to be copied? I think this King Khan scenario is a bit rosy in regards to China. It will not be as easy for the CCCP to unite their region monetarily nor will they be able to bring Indonesia into the fold as it seems Islam conflicts directly with the Chinese Central Committee.

But now that I think about it, Marxism could be seen as a sort of Monotheism like Islam. Also this union has been gameplanned in Chechnya and similar places with ethnic Muslim populations. China is way ahead when it comes to dealing with Islam but I don't agree with this scenario thinking forward because I feel they don't want the same gritty trench fight like the Soviet communists did. I think the Asian people are a bit more pragmatic and will follow the Bruce Lee way of merging with and accepting cross-cultural understanding.

Russian, Chinese and US all know that another "Joe Steel" could be built up and empowered and it won't matter what country he comes from. The people of Earth are getting tired of dictatorial powers, imo.

It's scary though. I actually like the Raptor and think it's useful for America. Now adays, Russians build Migs piecemeal for other countries like India.

On the whole, this move seems ill-concieved. Probably the Raptor might still be built maybe under a totally black program? To just give up air dominance seems really silly.

Originally posted by smallpeeps

Alternate Futures for 2025: Security Planning to Avoid a Surprise

REPORT HERE AT FAS

In 2016, US unemployment reached 18 percent, and the government faced the "great dilemma": Should it allow banks to foreclose on homeowners, creating millions of new homeless people, or should it protect homeowners and risk bank failures? [12] It chose the latter. In the aftermath, over 10 thousand banks failed and the government scrambled to keep the monetary system afloat.

Just wanted to bump this since Obama's government has revealed the lie about foreclosures being affected. Foreclosures will continue unabated, apparently.

The quote above is from the first post in this thread, quoting the Alternate Futures: 2025 document. See how the document assumes that foreclosures would be stopped? I am wondering how this scenario shapes up if that part is not true.

Notice that the other parts of the scenario are shaping up: trillion dollar debt, cancellation of the Raptor, double digit unemployment... But the authors of this document seemed to think that the US wouldn't try to strangle its own citizens when the "Great Dilemma" of home foreclosures came up. I am wondering if anyone any opinions on this document? It's been out there for over a decade now and it actually gives us a valuable tool for determing various responses as the scenarios shape up. That is to say, if more of us discussed this document and particularly the scenario shaping up here, I think we might be able to prevent the King Khan scenario from coming about.

Time is short, and actually some of our leaders have sold us to China already, so isn't it time to start talking about this together, as Americans?

Nice link, While its interesting that King Khan is quite apparent its also not a wise thing to discard the other futures, to me it looks like we are also hitting a Digital Cacophony as well, I mean compared to 1996 we've now got Cell phones that are multi purpose and light years ahead of what they had then and we also have IPods which are branching out into alot of various uses, its just not effecting us as much as it could although even myself am beginning to find the tech advances a little to much and im only 30 . Big Rise in GM foods use, although its more of a forced use of GM foods by big business than what they make it out to be in their scenario.

Heck even the 2015 crossroads scenario has things in it that have already happened, G-3 is formed, Saddams dead, sure a year or two behind what they said but fairly close given they wouldnt have thought that the second iraq war would happen.

Id say take all of em together and youd have a pretty good indication of where we are heading, sure you cant have all of em and ones more plausible than the others, but looking at all of the possibilities from 2009 and forward its not to hard to see its a scary future.

Maybe these guys know something and have hidden the real future in bits and pieces between all the scenarios

[edit on 19-4-2009 by BigfootNZ]

Originally posted by BigfootNZ
Nice link, While its interesting that King Khan is quite apparent its also not a wise thing to discard the other futures, to me it looks like we are also hitting a Digital Cacophony as well, I mean compared to 1996 we've now got Cell phones that are multi purpose and light years ahead of what they had then and we also have IPods which are branching out into alot of various uses, its just not effecting us as much as it could although even myself am beginning to find the tech advances a little to much and im only 30

. Big Rise in GM foods use, although its more of a forced use of GM foods by big business than what they make it out to be in their scenario.

Thanks for the reply!

The Digital Cacophony scenario is somewhat applicable, but when one looks at the drivers and the strength of the US in each scenario, it is clear that DC presumes a sort of enabling of the individual human as a super-tech enabled being, and governments are left somewhat powerless to respond.

Also with GM foods, the Digital Cacophony scenario presupposes that they'll feed the planet in 2002? I found that scenario as such to be far, far more fantastic. But your point is a good one; No one scenario can fully apply, as others will be more truthful. Here is a bit from the DC scenario which seems to relate to our day?

The Nature of Humanity [Digital Cacophony]

In this world, individuals can hold great power and are able to affect the outcome of a great many things. However, they are only independent as a single entity on the internet, as they are totally reliant on the net to function. Despite the allure of the electronic faux-life, a common dream is to “unplug” and be left alone for awhile . . . but the thought of missing the latest info-update is too enervating. Psychologists have categorized this neurosis as “infolepsis,” a condition of frequent and uncontrollable desire for information.

People communicate freely on the net, but many have also become isolationists, unable to communicate face-to-face. The net has become the center of people’s existence. “Net-vangelism,” or internet evangelism, has become a dominant form of persuasion, competing equally with other media forms. It is often used to sway public opinion regarding proposed government policies.

Due to the rapidly changing political and technological environment, most people suffer from high levels of anxiety. Many cannot cope or are uncomfortable with Exponential change and its apparently unknowable impacts. Sometimes even those comfortable with technology find themselves temporarily on the outside looking in. For example, disgruntled software engineers who are replaced by artificial intelligence are able to temporarily disrupt portions of the information net, causing havoc in the transportation network.

Clearly you are right in your observations. But I would suggest that on the whole (and particularly when looking at the most dire aspects of the futures possible US scenarios) it is King Khan which is shaping up. I would argue that the driver "Tec" is trumped by economic factors of the King Khan scenario. the KK scenario is the only one that presumes a total economic collapse of the US (albeit from immigration) and that is what makes it stand out in my mind. What I mean is that although I'd noticed some aspects of the Digital Cacophony scenario, it was the absurd economic situation which caused me to reflect upon this report as a whole.

its not to hard to see its a scary future.

Maybe these guys know something and have hidden the real future in bits and pieces between all the scenarios

You may be right especially in regards to King Khan as a scenario because it seems like to authors of the report pretended not to know that our financial system was a house of cards? As simple Colonels, maybe they didn't really know all that much about their own world? I am able to assume many military people live compartmentalized lives, seeing only what they want to see. But yes, having this report be freely available can help the average person. Well what I like about these scenarios and also your point is that yes, taken together, it allows a single person or their family, to gameplan the same situation. I think future planning is valuable to families as well as national states.

Thanks for your excellent comments!