So buying metals is a good investment? ok, aaannndd??

Property going down, economy crashing, dollar dropping, other currencies falling, we are on a spiral mode down...

ok... so people run and buy precious metals, gold, silver, platinum etc... and yes i agree the value of metals is up and going up... but isnt it because of supply and demand? more people buy, the higher its value, the bigger the bubble.... wasnt this the same with real estate? last time i checked the bubble busted... if you keep reading you will see how this bubble can bust and gold can drop from $1,000 to $5 ... this is one example.

Another thing... so, you have invested in metal stocks and everything crashes everything goes down the drain, now what? you gonna run to a computer and try to sell your metals, then wire the money to your bank account then run to your bank to pull the cash out, what cash? lets say dollar is worthless, so maybe they will have another currency in place NWO style? by the way, what computer? if everything is chaotic. oh yea and who will you sell your metal stocks to if everyone is running around like crazy people? and what bank? if all the banks have been shut down, burned down, nobody is working ... this is second example

now for the 3rd scenario. So lets say you are a smart man, so instead you want to buy actual gold coins, gold bars. Ok, now you have $100,000 in physical gold in your room that nobody knows about. Now all the things above are happening, people running around like crazies, breaking into stores, stealing stuff trying to survive... maybe you decide to flee with your family and your 6.5lbs of Gold. Then you need to buy food, you need to get a place to live, you need to buy or get gas somewhere.... cash is worthless, you have gold coins with you... are you going to bargain with people with gold coins?

Sir, i need food, this coin is worth $1,000 (in previous cash value) please sell me stuff!! you try to figure out that you need water, food worth of $40
how will you get change for your coin?
will you buy $1,000 worth of junk everytime you go somewhere?
how will you prove that your little coin is valued at $1,000?
will you shove a piece of paper in someone face to say look it says so?

With so much fake gold out there, you can buy 5lbs of gold coins on ebay for like $20 nobody knows the difference. people will be lied to left and right about whos coin is better and GOLDER... quickly your $1,000 coin will probably be worth $5, as much as those coins on ebay, since everyone will have fake gold coins, and those who have real gold coins wont be trusted because they will be looked at as liars with a fake piece of paper that says "its real!"

Seems as the best thing to do is to actually buy yourself a piece of land/little house, and buy what you can afford, and if you cant afford it dont get a loan for it, go rent. maybe buy a few bicycles for you and your family. Things that you would use and not depend on others for things, solar plates maybe, hunting gear, fishing stuff, camping accessories, cloth materials,.... this is kind of how i see it, let me know what you guys think?

Hey,

Your right in many respects... it all depends on how "bad" it gets.

If you believe that this will be a mild to medium economic recession / depression then gold and silver would be good investments (this means the crash won't be that bad and we do not loose systems, have massive riots, etc.)


Of course, if you think it is going to get worse than that, then your "paper gold" is useless since Monex and others will file bankruptcy when everyone comes to collect since they are over leveraged.

So in the above situation, gold and silver COINS would be ok.

Of course, if you think that were talking full scale collapse, well coins are about useless since you can't eat them or shoot anything with them and in that scenario nobody will give a damn about a shiny coin.

So, I guess it all depends on how bad you believe it will get.

As seen in many of my posts, I believe in diversifying my investments in Tin & Plastic (wrapped around food) and secondly Lead and Brass (ammo) as these would have much more value in a "very bad" situation.

Also, if you think hyperinflation (over 2 to 1) is going to happen, then buy necessities NOW before that happens. If you don't believe it will get that bad, then don't. I for one believe it is better to be safe than sorry. I can always EAT the damned food or donate it to a food bank before expiration. But we will still see people buying a 1,500 dollar TV like fools when they can get a years worth of food or more with that money...

Better to have it an not need it than need it and not have it.



[edit on 1-3-2009 by infolurker]

Personally, I own two "investments": Pure gold bars and cash. I'm quite happy with this stragegy at the moment, dispite having been laughed at for years by my more "sophisticated" securities/real-estate-investing friends and relatives who have all seen big losses in the last 2 years or so.

Consider the following, as well:

Since 1997, real inflation, as opposed to ridiculously understated official inflation, has raged at a minimum of 8% annually, and has soared as high as 14-16%. This means that you have lost a minimum of two thirds of your 1997 purchasing power. So, if you invested $10,000 in the Dow components in 1997, not only would you have no gain whatsoever, you would have losses on the stocks which were dropped from the index due to poor performance and, in addition, to add insult to injury, your purchasing power has been reduced from $10,000 to approximately $3,000 in terms of 1997 dollars. In other words, that $10,000 you invested in 1997 will today only buy what $3,000 would have bought in 1997.

Effectively, anyone playing the general stock markets has been wiped out by this combination of lost capital gains and reduced purchasing power. Those who began investing after 1997 have done even worse because they have suffered major capital losses in addition to having suffered reduced purchasing power. So much for the much touted 10% average annual gains for stocks. By contrast, you could have bought gold in 1997 for about $300 per ounce and more than tripled your money at today's prices. Your $10,000 would have become $30,000+, however, due to inflation caused by the Fed's profligate increase in the money supply, which the Fed intentionally orchestrated in order to impoverish you and bring you to your knees so you will accept world government, your purchasing power would only be about $10,000 in 1997 dollars. So you would at least be even in terms of purchasing power. Certainly, $10,000 in purchasing power is a whole lot better than $3,000. This example is a classic illustration of how gold preserves your wealth. As you can see, failure to invest in gold, silver and their related shares is tantamount to committing financial suicide. The bankruptcy courts will soon be full of the tens of millions of US citizens who ultimately will ignore gold and silver as a safe haven, or who will simply lack the capital to invest in gold and silver in any case because they are in hock up to their ears, or because they have become unemployed, or both.

Source:
theinternationalforecaster.com...

Originally posted by NickT916
Last time i checked the bubble busted... if you keep reading you will see how this bubble can bust and gold can drop from $1,000 to $5 ... this is one example.

The "bubble" with precious metals rarely bursts.. the price can easily halve but it will happen over space of weeks/months because many of the people who are investing in it in order to drive it up are doing so because they trust it more than currency. These people will not sell as soon as they see the price is starting to drop. They will wait until they can be sure the economy is ok.

On the other hand, there are many people who trade in gold the same as stocks. These are the people who will burst the bubble and bring it back to a 'normal' price.

Originally posted by Dermo
These people will not sell as soon as they see the price is starting to drop.

Exactly Dermo...in fact, thats when strong hands accumulate. You'll find relatively few people, even experienced equities traders, that understand Gold. Most people will stay in some form of paper...even if it costs them.

How I trebled my bullion profits across 6 yrs...



or...it's hard work, but somebody has to do it

GLTY

Originally posted by NickT916
this is kind of how i see it, let me know what you guys think?

You have a very very pessimistic and fantastical view of the world we live in.

First, you dont understand the enromity of the US financial system. The US financial system is pretty much 40-50% of the global financial system. Do you really believe that there can be a massive crash to send us into the dark ages ? Very unlikely. Right now, we are in the midst of a massive recession, one of the worst since the great depression. Do you see the starving people on Times square or the employment offices having lines many city blocks long ?

Second, you dont really understand that even if you gold bars at home or invest in a gold trade-able fund, the value for your money will essentially follow the same path of the value of gold in the traded market. A gold fund might be a few dollars short of physical gold on the street but basically you would not see much difference because most funds actually store physical gold. And, even if the metals market were to burst, its value would not fall from 1000 to 5 over night, the market would be closed after it triggers a circuit breaker. Not to mention that in reality that would never happen because for something like that to happen they would have to discover El Darado or some Gold mountain or some such epic event. Things have a value because people give them a price. The price of these things dont move magically but only with majority consent. By this I mean even if I want to sell a gold coin for a million bucks doesnt mean that people will buy it and the price of gold will go up and vice versa.

Third, you have very little faith in humantiy. Even if our economy totally collapses, there wont be anarcher. America can easily feed and cloth the 300 million people even if were to switch to an agrarian economy overnight. Things might become more grim but the looting and shooting like a pack of wovles days of humanity are over. Do you really believe that our citizenry can mount any significant revolt or prolonged anarchy against the US military with merely some firearms ?? The very idea is absurd. Even entire countries with nuclear arms cannot hope to win against the US military. Any civilian uprising, anarchy would be only temporary and would be put down swiftly.

Finally, the best investment advice would be to invest as diversely as possible while factoring in losses. Actually this is a great time to invest and buy. Everything from houses to blus chip companies are pretty much on discount and its time to buy now at these prices. Diverse investment will protect an investor to a degree from a multitude of setbacks. If you have a portfolio that invested in stocks, bonds, realestate and commodities you could essentially pretty much insulate your investments. Another point is that just because the market is tanking doesnt mean people arent making money. A nice butterfly options strategy at this time can take advantage of the mad volatility and earn you a nice sum of money with relatively little cost.

With so much fake gold out there, you can buy 5lbs of gold coins on ebay for like $20 nobody knows the difference. people will be lied to left and right about whos coin is better and GOLDER... quickly your $1,000 coin will probably be worth $5, as much as those coins on eBay, since everyone will have fake gold coins, and those who have real gold coins wont be trusted because they will be looked at as liars with a fake piece of paper that says "its real!"

I work in the gold mining industry and know how to test gold coins to tell the fakes.
few know how to do this and fewer take the time. Its easy if you know how to do the tests. specific gravity test and mike the gold coin and check to see if the size is right. this will catch 98% of the fakes. the rest are gold coins made on counterfeit dies and being sold as historical coins at a large markup over gold price as rare collectors coins.

Ebay That is like sending money to Nigeria. Nothing on Ebay can be trusted.

Its to late to buy gold or silver.
You should have bought them two years ago.
They will start to drop as soon as the economy starts to correct

Also stay away from stocks till the unemployment number start a large drop.
then buy a large variety of stocks not just in one company.

Stocks will go up the problem is knowing what one to buy to get the best bang for you buck.

I would not buy yet because there are a number of companies still to fold before the economy recovers. use the time to research the companies you like.

Then i would look hard at companies that supply compressed gases like Airco

Medical goods but not drug companies. The population is getting older.

Wind power companies. Solar companies but not companies that sell the solar panel used now. But companies when they start to sell the next generation low cost solar panels. This is why I will not put solar panel on my home, The one now will be obsolete before they are paid for and the power output will be a lot higher for the next generation panels.
This will put the existing panel off the market as to expensive

High tech battery companies. The next generation hybrid and battery powered car will need a lot of these.

Fuel cell companies as soon as there product hits the market. But not hydrogen fuel cell companies the infrastructure is not there and never will be. The government will never build it.

There are many other types of fuel cells that will work on existing fuels that are in the research stage.

Watch out for companies that have pie in the sky clean energy sources they are likely scams and even after they hit the market people still fall for them.
just look at the HHO hydrogen kits for cars.


[edit on 1-3-2009 by ANNED]

It would take too long to list the number reputable sources for precious metals. Buying lead filled ingots should be the least of your concerns.

Those that understand and are paying attention, will know when the top is nigh. Trust me, it's a long way from now.

When the economy does begin to reverse, that's when the real nightmare begins...the money multiplier effect...velocity...the inflationary impact of trillions. Please folks, research the nominal value of the German stock market during Weimar...it's all there.

Perma-bear Peter Munk, CEO of the world's largest Gold producer, an admitted agent for the Federal Reserve in it's Gold leasing scheme, recently announced that Gold may be headed for $2000...unheard of from that man...$2000. The world's most connected bullion bank, Goldman Sachs just reduced it's huge TOCOM short position to zero...first time ever...zero. No news coverage.

Have to read the signposts guys.

GL

Originally posted by ANNED
Wind power companies. Solar companies but not companies that sell the solar panel used now. But companies when they start to sell the next generation low cost solar panels. This is why I will not put solar panel on my home, The one now will be obsolete before they are paid for and the power output will be a lot higher for the next generation panels.
This will put the existing panel off the market as to expensive

when will new be, have link to this?

Correction, the dollar is not falling, it has actually risen substantially, it may eventually fall, but really the dollar has skyrocketed. If you had invested in U.S. treasuries NOT including the currency's up move (which you could only benefit from if you were a foreign buyer) you'd be up 13% in the past year.

[edit on 1-3-2009 by yellowcard]

reply to post by NickT916


You forgot one precious metal.

Lead.

When this all falls apart the ability to defend yourself will be
worth almost as much as food.

You may have gold or silver, but if ppl decide they want to take
it and your food you will be out of luck unless you can defend
yourself.

[edit on 1-3-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

In about 2001 I had some new Tenants move in. They were Asian. We got talking and I asked them what they do for investments etc.

They explained they usually buy gold/Silver Necklaces, Rings etc. But they explained one thing only buy Gold etc when its value is worthless and sell only when recessions hit (like now). In 2001 in NZ ,Gold was about $300 US per OZ.

My wife and I were looking at some term deposits and decided to take there advice and bought Gold. Now hitting the $1000.00 mark. Not a bad return since we bought at just over $300.00. We have sold about half now. The rest we will see in about 6 months time

Over 8 yrs we did no work for it, no tenant problems,Insurances, Council rates maintenance etc.

Use to see this in London in large ethnic areas there always was a lot of jewellery shops.

Now it all makes a lot of sense.

Originally posted by NickT916

Seems as the best thing to do is to actually buy yourself a piece of land/little house, and buy what you can afford, and if you cant afford it dont get a loan for it, go rent. maybe buy a few bicycles for you and your family. Things that you would use and not depend on others for things, solar plates maybe, hunting gear, fishing stuff, camping accessories, cloth materials,.... this is kind of how i see it, let me know what you guys think?

I think it is a fine idea. It may not be the best one in the whole wide world under every single economic theory ever proposed, but I would say it is a good one. Assuming the land can be productive. (ie; made to grow food and provide water)

After all, in doing so all you are doing is removing the middle man. Money. Instead of having money to buy things, you are having things to trade for things. Things that can be eaten if no one want to trade for them.

And while I applaud those who bought gold at around $3-400 an ounce a couple years ago, I think you are absolutely right that the prices today have a strong potential to be a bubble. See the 20 year chart of gold prices, by following the link below.

www.usagold.com...


And the last guys to buy will lose big IF paper money does not collapse. If it does collapse you stand to gain, but when buying at such outrageous prices, you have to be pretty darn sure there will be a collapse. Had you bought at $400 an oz, you would not have to be that certain to avoid a huge loss.

If you have productive land however, it will always have the value to you as a place to live, a producer of food which you can eat and barter, and they arent making more land, so it will likely retain its worth since you are not buying at the top of the bubble.

But the most important thing to ask yourself when making a decision like that is, what would you feel most comfortable owning? Ultimately, your investments should reflect your feelings, not just the wisdom of the masters of investment. The masterful have led us into this mess, after all. And what would you feel safest owning? I personally would rather barter than be sitting on a hoard of gold if the SHTF. Its so much easier for someone to sneak in your house, and kill you and take your gold than to kill you and harvest all your crops and sell or barter them. And if you are trading gold around town, word would spread that you have it.

Edit to add;

And consider that say you buy $10,000 worth of gold. And you own no land. You have to buy food, a place to live, etc with that gold. It will eventually run out, in a year or two depending how frugal you can be. Say instead, you buy $10,000 worth of fertile land. You have a place to live, you can grow food, and maybe even enough to sell the extra for a little of someone elses gold. And, you can do that indefinitely if you manage your land wisely.


[edit on 1-3-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]

Originally posted by OBE1


... The world's most connected bullion bank, Goldman Sachs just reduced it's huge TOCOM short position to zero...first time ever...zero. No news coverage.

Have to read the signposts guys.

GL

bonus points for you...
here's an excerpt from an admires analyst Jim Willie:

GOLDMAN SACHS LIQUIDATES

A small news item appeared in the press this week, one which gathered almost no attention.
. The kings of insider trading, taking full advantage of both USGovt implemented policy and politically managed commodity indexes, Goldman Sachs made an important move. They covered their remaining 69 short gold futures positions on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). They have reduced their position to zero. In May 2006, the GSax position reached 52,000 short gold contracts. Now it is zero.

TOCOM is unique, unlike the corrupted US commodity exchanges, since it requires all parties to post and publish their positions in a public manner. So Goldman must know something about the hugely positive prospects of gold. How about the new currencies to arrive by the stork in about one year's time will all contain a gold component? The simplest statement one can make about Wall Street is that traders became traitors.

INVESTMENT DEMAND SOARS

The establishment that embraces fiat currencies prefers to announce that jewelry demand is down in India, down in general globally, due to price reactions. How about telling the other story? That would be how the gold investment demand and silver investment demand has soared 400% in the last year or so. The data is astounding, but such a story would go counter to the belief that gold is a commodity. Gold is money, and fiat currencies are essentially denominated debt. Investment demand has soared since debt destruction has exposed currencies to be universally deficient, unmasked as debt instruments. The global banking system has been ruined by virtue of both the ridiculous growth in debt and the indefensible foundation of currencies. Furthermore, the coin shortage is touching all corners of the globe, as investment demand reaches levels to alarm officials. Maybe the USMint will close a few days per month, just like the California government agency offices.

MINING SUPPLY FADES [...]

source: www.321gold.com...


What relevance does this have ???
~~ because ~~ in 2010, there will be challengers to the present US$ reserve currency (of fiat petro-dollar money) ... by probably 3 centers---
Russia, GulfStates, Germany... who will launch gold based coins/currency...
& that's the reason why GoldmanSacs is cutting loose all those Gold shorts
that it was clandestinly doing for the Treasury...for the former policy to manipulate the prices of gold & silver downward.



~besides, even if the collapse of society ensues... a stash of gold will
buy one into the protective sanctuary of a wealthy persons compound or guarded mountain retreat...
one won't be swapping gold coins for a couple cases of soups & smokes,
that junk is traded for with common peoples 'silver'...
a chalet or a cabin with provisions might be acquired with a stash of gold coins or bars...a place where one might ride-out the first surge of unrest & anarchy.


i'd rather hold a small sack of gold/silver coins than have to warehouse
stuff like warm outerwear, a variety of boots/shoes/, a warehouse of 5 gallon water bottles, etc etc

Best to have all three,gold,silver and cash.And an electronic tester.When I am out and about going garage sailing,I bring the tester and am constantly amazed at how many people will bring out their junked chains and stuff to see what the tester sez.Then you can make the offer.A lot of stuff is falsely marked,it is true.It all has value to someone.The gold is for the bank,if money tanks,to pay off the mortgage.Silver would be for small payments.A digi scale is necessary as well for selling,but getting good at estimating weight is a must for getting the sweet deal on the spot when buying.My lowest offer is always better than the corner pawn shop and cheaper than ''spot'' for me.People sell gold in crisis,usually,and buy at leisure,so it stands to reason the money is made when buying.Memorize carat conversion,BTW.My biggest blunders have been math related.

You will get tricked with that electronic tester.

There are foreign jewelry makers that heavy plate .50/.70 fine gold jewelry with .999 fine gold to fool these electronic testers.

gia.metapress.com...
reviews.ebay.com...


Many of the collector grade gold coins are ruined if you do the test properly to tell if they are lower grade gold with high grade plating, counterfits.



[edit on 1-3-2009 by ANNED]

WE should see Gold at $900 by Tuesday and the SP500 at 780~. I expect a sharp, late rally coming Monday afternoon in the stock market: ~50% correction and new monthly 401K investments for March starting to be committed....as funds flow into the stocks some of the "scared money" that went to the metals will come out just as fast. trador emptor

reply to post by St Udio

Hi St Udio. Since GS listed on the TOCOM in 2005, their Gold position has consistently generated a net loss. Obviously GS isn't trading for profit. The evidence of collusion between the bullion banks and our monetary PTB to control the POG is not only overwhelming, but is supported by public statements from the lips of the of the very manipulators themselves.

“Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise” - Alan Greenspan before Congress 1998.

Adrian Douglas has also been tracking GS TOCOM trading activity: CRACKING THE ENIGMA CODE

The world's leading Gold producer/hedger, Barrick, is re-capitalizing and preparing to reduce it's 9.5MM oz Gold short at a $900+. That's 9.5MM oz owed to the Federal Reserve as a result of the 'official' Gold leasing scheme. It appears the Fed wants that Gold back in it's vault - preparation for those Gold backed currencies St Udio?

You can click this link and scroll down to Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd, and view the current GS TOCOM position...it's a sight for sore eyes.


Physical as opposed to paper....

Why China wants to buy $93 billion worth of gold

It will take years for Beijing to diversify into challenging Gold Reserve position. In my opinion, this is another barometer for gauging the strength and ultimate duration of the current bull market.

GL

Why would China want to buy it so fast it drove the price up so high? Wouldnt that be counter productive? If they have no intention of pulling out of the dollar quickly, because that would crash us and hurt them, why not take a more measured approach to building up their gold? It would seem like they could get more gold for their money if they did.

By the way, I am not being sarcastic, I am genuinely asking.

Hi IAG. I don't think the author necessarily specifies a time-frame for the investment. He seems to speculate that the removal of 93BB in Gold from the market at/near the current value, by China alone, could account for an increase in the POG to 2K oz. Beijing, or any large investor would deploy those funds on weakness...across time. I think your perception that the Gold market is too small - physical supply too tight is right-on.

But China isn't the only sovereign with a reputed interest in hoarding Gold. Official sector investment from Russia and the Middle East could drive the POG to levels more in line with this mainstream sharpshooter's analysis:

Gold may almost quadruple to US$3,500 an ounce by 2010, says strategist

Edit: I came across another piece just now that underscores the cunundrum faced by sovereign entities wishing to increase their official Gold reserves. My summation: It will be a relatively slow process - a process that will support the current uptrend for several years to come.

Why the IMF and Fort Knox Won’t Put the Hurt on Gold

GL


[edit on 2-3-2009 by OBE1]