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Breaking News* Steep GDP Revision Puts Economic Loss at 6.2%

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posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 06:08 PM
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reply to post by Tentickles
 


The reality is that we has been in a depression since Nov. of last year.

But at that time the government finally acknowledge that we were in a recession, but we were in a recession since the year before.

The government will never agree with a depression because the government has spend already to0 much money trying to fix the economic mess.

Now about the GDP figures they are worst than reported due to the fact that the GDP is done in such a way that is suppose to boost numbers as it doesn't discriminate about what sectors are worst than other.

The imports also were down in February report that means that actually the GDP when put against the loses in imports will not look as bad.




posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 08:00 PM
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reply to post by marg6043
 


I'm very sure they are lying to us about the figures to make everything seem better. I wont be surprised when reports come out that companies have been lying.



posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 09:04 PM
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we're not in a depression people, but we are well on our way. Its the lowest fall since 1982, I dont remember a depression there.



posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 10:15 PM
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Originally posted by questioningall
reply to post by Tentickles
 


I know it is a depression, but the news will never say that. That would completely freak most people out.... so the word will never be used by MSM. Recession sounds so much better.


Yeah, these things are tricky. Seems that half of what slumps are about it psychology. Some people are out of work or have less business. But even more people still have work, but are afraid to spend money - which reduces demand, which causes layoffs, etc. The more freaked out people are, the worse they make it! There is a realistic fear that yelling "depression" could be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

On the other hand, at some point you have to say how serious it really is (acknowledging reality) or we won't take strong enough measures...

It's a fine line for somebody like a President, who has to tell people it's really, really serious so they'll take serious actions - yet needs to sound positive and hopeful enough not to make it worse. I'm glad it's not my job.

reasoner



posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 10:22 PM
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Well, all we need is Obama to spend several trillion more dollars right?! tax the rich and redistribute wealth, right?


This country was guaranteed a depression when this man was elected president. kudos people.....hope we all enjoy making the same wages and paying 80% to the gov.

Socialism baby! yeah!







posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 10:40 PM
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What's the difference between "this is turning out to be a major recession" and "this is turning out to be a depression"?

Partly we won't know until we have hindsight knowledge of how long it lasts.

But there is also a question of whether the economy goes into a deflationary spiral, which happened during the "Great Depression" of the previous century but not the cyclic US recessions since then. Recessions work themselves out after a year or two, in some ways not unlike a periodic wildfire in the forest - except that it harms a lot of people. Deflationary spirals are really hard to escape and can go on for a decade or longer because they have strong self-reinforcing dynamics.

The Great Depression ended with WW II. The Japanese spiral of the 90's was able to recover in part because the US and European economies were still active so there were functioning sellers, buyers and credit markets to piggy back on (and it still took many years).

Having a relatively stable large economy as the bedrock (and as the reference currency) has helped stabilize world capitalism from it's worst boom/bust cycles for many decades. But this time the US is at the middle of the storm, and there is no other large stable economy for the US to lean on - it's world wide again.

There also isn't as much easily accessible petroleum to rebuild with this time, but that's another issue.

I'm hoping for the best - that this turns into a just an especially big recession. But I'm somewhat worried about a 10-20 year depression. (At my age, that could mean "the rest of my life")

Saucer folks, help! We're screwing up again and in some ways this is a harder problem for humans to resolve than the cold war. Our market system has turned on us; we deregulated it and worshipped it and now it's broken and our very best minds cannot agree on how to fix it, if it can be fixed.

The world will either get better (eg: more environmentally responsible, more free and egalitarian, appealing more to what's best in us) or it will get worse (eg: more totalitarian, more propagandistic, appealing to our worst instincts). It's not going to continue on course.

Ah, well, we are living in interesting times. If it was a novel, I'd be fascinated to see how it turns out. Cultivate curiousity along with the concern so we don't panic and do stupid things.

Great things were imposed upon, and great things emerged from,the depression and WWII generations. Our time may have come to show what we're made of.

reasoner



posted on Feb, 27 2009 @ 11:09 PM
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Originally posted by NightoftheComet
Well, all we need is Obama to spend several trillion more dollars right?! tax the rich and redistribute wealth, right?


This country was guaranteed a depression when this man was elected president. kudos people.....hope we all enjoy making the same wages and paying 80% to the gov.

Socialism baby! yeah!



Check out the crash course at chrismartenson.com

To blame this on Obama is many years too late, convenient as it might be to have an easy scapegoat. What's going on now has been predicted based on underlying fundamentals before anybody ever heard of Obama. The lowering of trade and investment barriers by Regean/Bush/Clinton/Bush made it so likely that we'd all rise - or sink - together. Deregulation of financial markets under all four also allowed financial institutions to become greatly overleveraged on complex derivatives that nobody understood but which made a lot of money for those at the top. Massive deficits under Reagan fueled economic growth that wasn't paying for itself and which burgeoned into debt to earnings ratios never before seen in the country. Increasingly US wealth was in "soft" categories like inflated housing prices, which are driven by speculation (hope of buying low and selling high without actually adding value) rather than function and productivity. It was a predictable bubble and it WAS predicted very clearly. The US spent faster than its productivity went up, and borrowed trillions to cover the difference (MOSTLY invidudals, but also corporations and government - if you want to know who was living beyond their true means by borrowing, look in the mirror). In the US, all of this happened under Republican and Democratic presidents and congresses over a couple of decades. Obama had nothing to do with creating it.

But all that's boring, and can't be understood in a soundbite. It hurts the head. It would take hours of serious reading to even understand in any real depth what I'm referring to above, much less have any insights into how valid it is.

So I predict a whole lot of people are going to rewrite history in their minds and find a convenient scapegoat to blame. It will make them feel good to have a simple answer and somebody to hate and feel superior too.

Is Obama doing the right thing? I don't really honestly know. I read a fair amount from economists of all flavors, and the only thing I'm certain of is that not a single human on this planet knows for sure how to handle this mess. One nobel prize winner says Obama is too cautious and should not have compromised with Republicans about the tax cuts. Others say that tax cuts are the solution to any economic problem at any time. The most august and studied authorities cannot come to any consensus. I'm glad I'm not in charge.

But I'm not going to take the easy out and pretend this was just a recession until Obama messed it up. To anybody who can (with help) understand the difference between a cycle (eg: sine wave) and an exponential curve, there are some great resources on the web that may convince you we've been building to this point for twenty years and that nobody could have averted it this late in the game.

What impresses me about Obama is that interviews with him clearly demonstrate to me that he is very intelligent and very well informed - he can hold his own with hard core policy wonks when he needs to, not just read from a teleprompter. That doesn't mean he'll make the right decisions (who can know?), but I'd rather we have "somebody home" at the helm, than a feel-good figurehead. He has a history of being willing to acknowledge his mistakes and change, which is crucial when nobody but nobody really knows in advance what the best course is.

Your milage may vary. I'm not trying to promote Obama so much as to promote thinking (even when it yields hints rather than comfortable certainties) rather than just scapegoating to feel better.

reasoner.



posted on Feb, 28 2009 @ 01:13 AM
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reply to post by reasoner
 


there is no doubt that the last few presidents all contributed to todays conditions. (you forgot to mention Carter and he is also guilty) but that does not excuse the kind of rash and extravagent spending that has occurred since obama took office. it is carefully planned only insofar as it pays off a lot of political debts--the folks who supported obama and the democrats. the budget passed a couple of days ago continues this process. Americans mostly believed the president needed to do something but spending this much money THAT MUST BE BORROWED is seriously damaging, and there's no sign of a slowdown in the spending spree. every day or two brings another huge bill. this goes way beyond what any past president has done. daring? yes, like jumping off a cliff is daring, but he's pushing us off the cliff.

the new taxes will crucify not only the rich but affect everyone because they will be added to every utility bill, and increase costs of businesses of all sizes. obama wants to penalize the rich but in doing so he is killing the goose that lays the golden egg. it's already reached the point that if the entire GDP is confiscated there still won't be enough to pay off the debt, and it's only February. I don't think you can find any economist who supports these tax increases and this staggering, ballooning debt as well as the significant expansion of the federal government itself that must be paid for.

this president might be smart but everything he says is meant to deceive. He says words people want to hear but they don't mean what people HOPE they mean. He commits to transparency but does everything in secret and pushes bills through without examination that he justifies because of the emergency. He denies access to any journalist who questions his beliefs or agenda.

no i'm not a republican. i'm an independent. try looking past party to what's happening. it's quite an eye opener.



posted on Feb, 28 2009 @ 08:50 AM
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reply to post by Tentickles
 


This the productivity report for the month of Feb.


U.S. Industrial Production Falls 1.8%
Manufacturing drops 2.5%
Feb. 18, 2009,

Industrial production fell 1.8% in January. Output in January was 10% below its year-earlier level. Production in the manufacturing sector dropped 2.5%. A plunge in motor vehicle and parts production that resulted from extended plant shutdowns subtracted more than 1.0 percentage point from the change in manufacturing production.

The output of motor vehicles and parts decreased at a monthly rate of 23.4% in January, after having contracted at an annual rate of more than 37% in the fourth quarter.

The factory operating rate moved down 1.7 percentage points, to 68%, the lowest rate of utilization since this series began in 1948.


www.industryweek.com...

Combine that with the raising unemployment and this are Depression figures



posted on Feb, 28 2009 @ 09:30 AM
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reply to post by marg6043
 


The thing is, all reports are bad now, they are hiding the "real" unemployment numbers, which to my understanding is around 15%. They always drop the people who have "given up" on looking for employment.

At some point - I would think the house of cards will fall down, but I may be wrong. How can they keep the charade up for much longer?

I just don't understand the gold prices going down either, if that isn't 'REAL' manipulation - I don't know what is!



posted on Feb, 28 2009 @ 04:26 PM
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They will try to keep it looking good as long as they can.
When something like this hits they pour Billions into the market from inside channels . They do not want investors going for Gold! But they can only keep this up so long, by the end of summer we will see things really start to drop.

And are we in a depression? You bet. But they will turn every word lose that they can before they say that word. Because when they do it will cross over a line that they cannot come back from. It will happen.

I have to say in all my years I have never seen so many people in government so scared. It shows on there faces when they speak on the news.
It is almost funny how they look, and how they choke when they are asked questions that they do not want to answer.



posted on Feb, 28 2009 @ 05:23 PM
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Well I don't know about any one else but getting out of debt has been my number one goal for a long time now. I even own my Jeep Liberty outright and don't plan on trading that in to take on payments to contribute to this nightmare.

I have a fairly big backyard and I have a friend that lives in an apartment that's going to help me plant and manage the whole thing this year. We are then going to can everything possible.

I wish we could raise chickens and other small livestock in the city and in the near future that little law may be looked over if there are bigger issues at play.

I think we can make it out of this but I think many in this country are going to go through some major hell making the adjustment and that's why I have a stash of weapons and ammo...

I am just trying to live like I am already in a depression. I am saving as much as I can and gathering things I think may help me in the barter economy that will be flourishing...


It really does make you wonder if there really is something to 2012? Things are going down so far so fast that I wonder what could be the thing that creates a major change in the way we live or if we are to live at all after that date?



posted on Mar, 1 2009 @ 01:30 AM
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All we need is the next commercialized breakthrough to create the next "bubble" like the internet bubble we saw in the 90's - that would certainly help to get us out of this mess. But it would have to be something pretty significant - life altering, even, like the internet and television were. Antigravity perhaps? Teleportation? Quantum computers?OLED-based soft screens?

Whatever it is, I wish it would get here already.



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