The real reason OBL offers Europe a truce.

Everyone now knows that he has offered Europe but not the US a truce. He is trying to devide western thought and their combined might. More importantly though, I believe this shows weakness. He has never offered a truce before. Could this be tipping his hand that he realizes he is going down? I have heard that about two thirds of his lead men have been caught. Any ways, what do you all amke of this?

It's either a weakness, or an unwillingness to continue with the current plan. If he had the strength, he would act first and ask questions later.

Actually, what they're doing is smart, but it will not work. Only the softass Spanish are falling for al-Qaeda's ploy.

Take Japanese hostages... Get the Japanese public riled up... Release the hostages. No harm done, and maybe Japan reconsiders it's involvement.

Do the same with Italy, but kill one of them to say "Hey! We're serious."

Bomb civilians in Madrid to say "Hey! We're serious." (It obviously worked on them. I never thought I'd live to see athe day where Italians step up and Spaniards hide in the corner.)

Offer a "truce" to Eurpoe hoping it will divide the reconstruction effort.

Weakness.

It is a historical fact that the longer a terrorist campaign lasts, (usually) the better chance that the victims will unite and stand against the terrorists. If terrorism is to succeed, it must win early, and win big.

Bin Laden lives like a goat in a hole, and his cronies are all marked men or dead. Now he must try to divide his enemies and play them off one another to gain time. The Europeans are too smart to fall for that, and they themselves have already suffered enough pain and suffering at the hands of these murderers to meet them at the negotiation table.

Originally posted by kramtronix
Offer a "truce" to Eurpoe hoping it will divide the reconstruction effort.

Agreed. He is looking to get the other countries out of Iraq and therefore heavily increasing the already huge burden on the stretched-thin US military.

I do believe in bringing in the UN. The more countries in there rebuilding and providing security, the better. The US and coalition then become one of many allies as opposed to a focused target for frustration and violence.

[Edited on 15-4-2004 by Facefirst]

Originally posted by kramtronix
Actually, what they're doing is smart, but it will not work. Only the softass Spanish are falling for al-Qaeda's ploy.

Take Japanese hostages... Get the Japanese public riled up... Release the hostages. No harm done, and maybe Japan reconsiders it's involvement.

Do the same with Italy, but kill one of them to say "Hey! We're serious."

Bomb civilians in Madrid to say "Hey! We're serious." (It obviously worked on them. I never thought I'd live to see athe day where Italians step up and Spaniards hide in the corner.)

Offer a "truce" to Eurpoe hoping it will divide the reconstruction effort.

I agree - it is a clever tactic. But, he has never had to use this before - in fact he has never offered any kind of peace. This is why i think he may be weak.

Maybe it's an offer of peace before they go for real with hard strikes against civilians all over Europe.

At least that would I do if I would be Osama

Bin Laden has lost alot of his fighters in England. The British have been fighting terrorism for much longer than the States(IRA), have much better intelligence and dont just rely on technology.

I think Bin Laden is trying to extend and aggreviate the divide between USA and Europe, especially now with the fighting going on in Iraqi. There doesnt need to be another major attack, only continue whats happening in Iraqi for another month or so and Bush is out of the white house. If there is no order in Iraqi and the body bags start to mount up Bush is gone, just like a rerun of Vietnam only now its the desert.

If you look at what happened in Madrid, that could happen in ANY European (including England) country.
With the opposition now against Blair for example, if there was a major strike before next years elections, he would lose hands down in the election, as his already taken many a dent in his public image due to Iraqi.

I do think that Bin Ladens camel fkukcing groupies have taken hard knocks of late, alot caught in UK and they caught the bottom fkckers responsible for Madrid.

So my opinon is simple. Unless there is a major strike ON american soil within the next 8 months their koran toilet paper game is up in a big way. The clock is ticking against them, it is only a matter of time before the top leaders and bin laden himself are caught. Either they hit hard relatively soon or the war on terrorism is over. For now at any rate.

This kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years. There are two possible reasons for it. Either bin Laden has been weakened by the various attacks on his men and capture of his lieutenants, or he is trying to appear 'generous' to Europe, in order to obtain the 'surrender' of European countries.

After the battle of Lake Trasimenus, where the Romans suffered great disaster, Hannibal, having brought six thousand of the enemy under his power by virtue of a covenant he had made, generously allowed the allies of the "Latin Name" to return to their cities, declaring that he was waging war for the purpose of freeing Italy. As a result, by means of their assistance he received in surrender a number of tribes
Sextus Julius Frontinus: Stratagems

I truly think that he is trying out both strategies. By offering a truce, he gets to appear 'generous' (This may well result in certain countries 'surrendering' and pulling out of the 'War on Terror') while at the same he is able to use the time allowed him to build up his own forces.

I think people forget that Europe has a very long history of dealing with arab nations (we're talking millenia). We have a greater understand of their ways. America on the other hand isn't very good at deplomacy.
This understand of course does not mean we agree with them. I can tell you now that the European nations will take this offer serious, but in puplic will dismiss it.

[Edited on 15-4-2004 by Britman]

Originally posted by Britman
America on the other hand isn't very good at deplomacy.
[Edited on 15-4-2004 by Britman]

i don't think that you can generalize us that much.
You should have written "The current Bush Administration" isn't very good at diplomacy.

lol so was clint eastwood in the movie magnum. Do myou feel lucky punk? well do ya!

Originally posted by Britman
lol so was clint eastwood in the movie magnum. Do myou feel lucky punk? well do ya!

HA HA! LOL!

I just pictured Bush saying those words and I almost broke my ribs laughing so hard....... Bush is no velvet hammer......more like a rusty garden hoe....

Arent you guys forgeting that it doesnt matter who is leading them they already have their savior, if laddy is capped in the skull they will still fight for his honor an his death, all around the world the secret cells might have a secret pack that if he is to die then the rest of the cells will too. i think this is like opening a container or toxic waste, the initial spill is pretty messy an deadly but its the cleaning up process that will kill the most people in the long run.

[Edited on 15-4-2004 by Facefirst]

I think he is weak, wanting to divide the forces against him. He knows he is going down. There is going to be no stopping the US now. I suggest we bomb the crap out of every little mountain range on the border of Afganistan and Pakistan and bomb Afganistan and bomb Afganistan and bomb the mountains and bomb Afganistan and then maybe some bombs on Iraq and then more on Afganistan and then some more on the mountains and then Afganistan and then you, know maybe some more on Iraq and then Afganistan.

Sorry Strongbad, taking over, roger, bombs away

In the message, bin Laden gave a 3 month window for the troops of each particular country to leave:

"the door to a truce is open for three months," but the period could be extended. "The truce will begin when the last soldier leaves our countries"

So assuming he wouldn't strike while a country is in the process of pulling out, has he just said he'll cool it for the next 3 months? (excluding US and Israel, natch)

Might there be any significance to that? He's going to go to ground (even more) for 3 months and we'll hear nothing? Some other reason he's signaling a time of quiet?

(Just looking for ideas . . . )

Osama doesnt have a beef with Europe. Only the U.S. because of our busybody like behavior in the middle east. They want to be left alone and i dont blame them.
The U.S. keeps funding terrorrism(israel) and they are tired of it.

I think attacks in the U.S. will steep up now for 3 months to show they are serious.

European countries will eventually pull out first followed by the U.S. The U.S. will probably not be told of the pullouts of other countries though,S.O.P.

The U.S. have entered as liberators and will leave as losers.

This might not be true but what if OBL is trying to feign weakness? By pretending to be weak the enemy becomes very confident of their success and that's the best time to strike, at the most unexpected time where eevryone is convinced of victory...

Firstly to the person who mentioned the hostages in Iraq... they have nothing to do with OBL... OBL has nothing to do with the resistance in Iraq, he's some where on the Afghani border on a dialisis machine...

Secondly the reason he's offering Europe a truce becuase his gripe is with the USA and those who follow blindly... Europe showed the world they are not sheep by following the US into an unjustified war in Iraq, also Europe have proven to be more symapthetic to the Palestinians than the US

Basically OBL is just shortening his enemy list to make it easier for himself