2012: the Republicans

After November 4, 2008, the 2012 presidential race kicks in. No one announces yet, but possible candidates start to visit Iowa and New Hampshire. Some 2008 candidates never leave, and take a few weeks vacation before making appearances. This thread will discuss the Republicans who are staying in the news for a possible run. Like the title of Sean Connery's 1983 James Bond movie "Never Say Never Again", these politicians may say no, but many say yes in the end. Here are a few names and a brief summary of what may happen:

Gov Sarah Palin: She has already started a PAC in her name to deal with issues. The problem is she needs to stay in the spotlight, and Alaska is not always in the news. She may run for the Senate in 2010, and the polls show her winning by a landslide if she does. The problem is, she would do more campaigning then her job in the Senate. Gov Palin may run for the Senate with an eye for 2016. The experience would help her grow for a better run national campaign.

Gov Mike Huckabee: He has stated he is not interested in running again, but much of his new book tour was in Iowa. He will also have the luck of not having Fred Thompson chip away at his Southern supporters. If Gov Palin decides to wait until 2016, he will probably run again.

Mitt Romney: He was very upset he did not win the nomination, and was also upset he was not named veep. One of his problems is he is not liked by the major Republican fundraisers. Gov Huckabee did extremely well on a shoestring budget, and he may get the bulk of the fundraisers this time. Some pundits are already claiming Gov Romney will be the victor, but his star has been fading fast. The 2002 Utah Games are fading from the collective memories, and that was his moment of glory. I will predict he runs, but he will have a much tougher time this election cycle.

Gov Bobby Jindal: He has stated he is not interested (cue the them song from "Never Say Never Again"), but he has been chosen to give the closing statement to President Obama's address to the Nation later this month. He is young and popular in many circles, but has yet to really prove himself nationally. He may also wait until 2016, as President Obama will be a tough campaigner. I do not think he would take the veep slot, as he is interested the the main job itself. I could be wrong, but Vice Presidents have a tough time when running for the main job. Only a few have made it. I also think Gov Jindal will do more activities and events to put him in the national spotlight. We may see him go toe to toe with Gov Palin in 2016.

Gov Charles Crist: He is very popular in Florida, but he may have his eyes on the Senate seat being vacated by Sen Martinez. He may have lost some national Republican support because he has been seen with President Obama. He would also have a tough time running against Gov Jindal and/or Gov Palin. I am predicting he will run for the Senate in 2010.

There are numerous other Senators who will probably want to run in 2012. If the economy is still in trouble, it will not help Barack Obama, but it will also not be good for the Republicans. They would have to try to fix it in four years, too.

Bobby Jindal did not do well in his response speech to the President's Address to Congress. This hurts him short time for his bid for the presidency, but the good news is the public has short memories when it comes to speeches. He is trying to woo the hard right in the Republican Party, but they like Gov Palin, who would of been a much better choice in hindsight to deliver the rebuttal. If Jindal does not run, Gov Palin would get his support, and it would cost Mitt Romney in the long run.

Newt Gingrich has stated in an interview he is quite interested in running for the 2012 Republican nomination. While not surprising, I wonder if the Republicans are ready for him. He has been mentioned many times in the past, but he never threw his hat in the ring. He brings a lot of baggage with him, and many people may want to look for a fresher face, like Bobby Jindal or Sarah Palin. I think Gingrich would steal votes from Mitt Romney and other insider candidates. It would make the race interesting if he does follow through, but I do not see him getting the nomination. It is way to early to tell in this stage of the game.

While currently I think it would be in the Republican party's best interest to have Mitt Romney as their 2012 nominee (which worries me if Obama does not follow through in the next four years), I also believe that it is way too premature to start speculating who will be running in 2012.

Let's leave that up to the television/radio pundits who will be guessing who it will be for the next four years.

For example, I bring up the fact that four years ago I seem to remember everyone assuming it would be Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in the 2008 election.

Bottom line is that no matter what these guys are doing, it's way too early to tell; in my opinion.

reply to post by matth


I wrote this because there are many who are already starting their campaigns. I agree it is too early, and I think the real time to start any speculation is after the 2010 midterms. I do recall that Sen George Allen and Hillary Clinton were named as the early front runners and the ones to beat right after the 2004 election.

It is also fun to speculate about who is going to run, but remember, Barack Obama is one of the best campaigners since Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan. I do think some of the names will wait until 2016.

A small update to this thread:

It looks like Rudy Giuliani is eying the Governor's mansion. His take on gay marriage is an attempt to woo conservatives, but he may have difficulty shaking his liberal bend from his past history. George Pataki may run for Senate in 2010, so he will probably not be a candidate in 2012.

Tim Pawlenty is losing popularity in Minnesota because of the Senate race. If he runs for reelection and loses, his chance for the Presidential race in 2012 dims. I do not see him as a serious candidate.

Bobby Jindal has a problem, and that is what to run for. If he runs for reelection as Governor in Louisiana in 2011, he will not be able to run for President in 2012. He would have to do two campaigns, as the Presidential race starts in January of 2011. He could pull a Fred Thompson and wait, but then all the good campaign workers will have been hired by the others, and their would not be any money for the early primary races. Louisiana voters may not want to vote for him if he is spending all his time running for President too. The state is solid red because of the population shift caused by Katrina and Rita. He may run for both, as he is guaranteed victory in Louisiana.

Mitt Romney is in the news a lot, with the listening tour which is now called the teaching tour. He wants the nomination badly, but still has to overcome a big likability factor. I do not see him as having any ideas to bring to the table, and I think the conservative base of the party still does not trust him. The exclusion of Sarah Palin does not help them either as she still is quite popular.

Mike Huckabee has been out of the picture for a few months, and he would be the only serious challenge to Gov Palin's conservative base. He has a lot of experience because of 2008, but that may not translate into votes. Newt Gingrich may also gut his support, as he also is a Southern conservative. I think Gov Huckabee wants to, but he may have to be realistic this time.

Newt Gingrich also wants to run, but he seems like a step backward for many. He is more neocon than traditional conservative, and that will be a negative for him, especially as Gov Palin will give him a run for his money.

Gov Sarah Palin has had some negative publicity by the liberal media, and that helps her. She is wisely staying in the media, but not overexposing herself. She has a very loyal base, and this will help her in the primaries. Since she is not running for the Senate seat after making nice with Sen Murkowski. She should also cruise to reelection if she chooses to. While others are downplaying her support, she should cruise to the Republican Convention in 2012. Her detractors in the party do forget she is a formidable campaigner, and can pack in crowds and raise funds.

There are many others interested in this race, but they will be third tier candidates.

Gov Jim Huntsman of Utah is being picked for envoy to China. The diplomatic post will give him some very good foreign affairs experience, but will also take away a more moderate choice from the Republican Party. That seems to be what the pundits are saying, but he would have to get past the conservatives in the primary. I am of the thinking that the Republicans will move to the far right in 2012, and Sarah Palin will be the pick. She is starting to cozy up to the unpopular Michael Steele, who will be instrumental in the running of the primary season. While Mr Steele may not be to popular, I do not think the Republicans can afford a messy fight to get rid of him.

It is still very early in the season, but many of the serious politicos who are going to run have already started to map their strategies.

It seems that 2012 will be a contest between four candidates: Gov Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney. (There will be others, but they will be the second and third tier candidates.)

Sarah Palin: Her problem is she has to stay in the limelight, and the negative attention that sometimes comes along is not good. Some people will wish that she just goes away, but her core base still loves her. The advice should be for her to set up the basic campaign structure and just go to Iowa and New Hampshire for now. Shoring up the support in the early contest could reap enormous benefits later on. Her supporters will not get tired of her as she would be limited in public for a while. (After I wrote this, I found out Gov Palin is not seeking re-election, which will free her up to run for president.)

Mitt Romney: Some are calling him the front-runner, but he still will have problems with the core conservative base. Gov Palin will be going after the popular support, while Gov Romney will have the party elite support. That could be bad news as the party is trying to get a populist feel.

Mike Huckabee: Sarah Palin's strongest challenger as both are after the same type of voters. The problem with Mike Huckabee is that he did not do as well as some thought he could have done. Having run before may also get people to want to pick someone new. He also has been making Iowa and New Hampshire second and third homes to try and keep his old support.

Newt Gingrich: There are some pundits who think he may win the nomination. If he runs, he will take support from both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. He is an unknown right now, but I would not count him out.

Many other names are crashing and burning, either because of personal problems or poll numbers. They would have to make inroads into the support of the top four candidates listed above. In a political field where sides have been drawn up early, they will also have problems with fund raising and staff.

Edited to add

[edit on 7/3/2009 by kidflash2008]

Sarah Palin's shocking resignation should not be considered that shocking. She wants to be able to go out and raise money for her presidential campaign, and the office of Governor in a more remote state kept her from achieving those goals. The problem is she may be thought of as a "quitter" in some circles, but there are times when a move is necessary. Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich are all free from any jobs to hold them down while they pursue the presidency. Sarah Palin wanted to equalize the playing field and made her move. It will cost a little bit now, but with the press preoccupied with the death of Michael Jackson, it was a wise time for her to announce her decision.

There is one thing I would never do and that is count her out. She actually did a very smart move, and will be out in full force to campaign.

The pundits seem to be thinking differently than I am, but they seem to forget how short the public's attention span is. In a few years, this move will be forgotten about.

There seem to be four major contenders out there actively seeking the 2012 nomination:

Sarah Palin has been busy on the lecture circuit. There is big money in that, and she still keeps a high profile. She is still extremely popular with the conservative base of the party. The others seem to still have an elitist feel that they would need to overcome if they want to beat her.

It is interesting many have written Mrs Palin off. I think that is their biggest mistake.

Gov Pawlenty of Minnesota: He is positioning himself to the right of the party for the primaries. The problem is, he will scare of potential moderates and independents. The 2012 run may be an experience earner for possible future runs in 2016 and beyond. I don't see a big fan base for him, but it is still early.

Gov Huckabee: Trying to be the usual talking points conservative now. This may hurt him as people will wonder which Huckabee they are voting for. He did well in 2008, but Sarah is a more popular person and will take many of his supporters away from him. I think he will do worse in 2012 because of Sarah.

Gov Romney: He has not stopped campaigning since 2007. He wants people to forget his liberal views in Massachusetts, but now will have Sarah and her folksy conservative views to contend with. She is the real deal, he is not. She also is popular in the Western states, which he won in 2008. I also see him doing worse in 2012.

Again, it is very early in the game. Anything can happen, and it will be interesting to see what happens. My money is still on Sarah Palin.

It now looks like the Democrats are going to get a smashing in November, but Republicans are not that much more popular either. Republicans may take their big gains this November as thinking they can take over the White House in 2012. While that is possible, it is not probable as President Obama is an excellent campaigner in the Ronald Reagan/Bill Clinton mode.

I will have an update of who is who in the 2012 race in the next few months. As we have seen, fortunes can turn in the blink of an eye.

Still, I see these people as running in 2012:

Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
Tim Pawlenty
Hayley Barbour

Those who might run, but whose popularity has waned:

Sarah Palin (many small gaffs may have hurt her, but people have short memories)
Mike Huckabee (his release of the former prisoner who went on to murder in Washington state will be used in primaries by his opponents.)

In my personal opinion, Sarah Palin is "unelectable" and could best serve the Republicans as an ideologue. Mitt Romney would be a "good" choice for Republicans. Personally though, I find myself wishing for a new leader that will actually read and obey the Constitution.