Lets Talk About The Market

Im creating this thread to talk about the daily changes in the stock market using the three indicators news, charts, and fundamentals. Id like to get all the gurus here on ATS together and get the discussions going like the good old days. I will try to update daily my opinion as things change. please feel free to throw your opinions on things. So let me start....


First off I think we are indeed going down to test the lows of November and we are going to do it within the next few days. Looking at the charts for both the DOW and the S&P we have a bearish pennant which both have broke below the bottom line and both tried to come back up today and could not do it. Please see below....







Now on top of this we have the bailout vote coming up which Im sure will pass and the market will not treat that well Im assuming. We also have some news coming out also. On top of this generally for a true bottom to be formed the lows are tested and we have yet to do this. So I think we are going lower over the next week or two what say you?

[edit on 11-2-2009 by tjeffersonsghost]

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost


HMm.. Well, you could very well be right, I am not so sure though.

In fact, I would say I am absolutely sure your wrong, however today is the first time since Nov I believe that the DOW has remained under 8,000 for more then one day.

From international news European banks are admitting they are more then just cash strapped, and are requesting a bailout = to half the world's total GDP.. 24trillion us dollars.

www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=436042

Coinciding with more financial gurus on MSM even, saying this situation is about to get a lot worse..

Personally, I think we have until late spring to see the next leg of this recession come out from under us, not to say a gradual pull back from our current standing is not likely.

Which trading system do you use by the way?

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

 

HMm.. Well, you could very well be right, I am not so sure though.

In fact, I would say I am absolutely sure your wrong, however today is the first time since Nov I believe that the DOW has remained under 8,000 for more then one day.

From international news European banks are admitting they are more then just cash strapped, and are requesting a bailout = to half the world's total GDP.. 24trillion us dollars.

www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=436042

Coinciding with more financial gurus on MSM even, saying this situation is about to get a lot worse..

Personally, I think we have until late spring to see the next leg of this recession come out from under us, not to say a gradual pull back from our current standing is not likely.

Which trading system do you use by the way?

Well from a fundamentals standpoint I feel we are going much lower. I mean our country is spending a whole lot of money that we dont have. We are doing this with the hopes that China will continue to buy our debt. I dont think they are going to for much longer. The time frames I am talking about is much shorter more like a 2 to 3 week time frame. In the long term lets say over the next year we have lower to go for sure. 7500 is the key point looking at the dow




If we stay above there we could be fine but looking at the SPX we have already broke the lows we set in 2002. That is something you hear NO ONE talking about which is what leads me to believe we are going lower.

On a side note I use Think or Swim

I think we're at an inflection point right now. Who the hell knows what the bottom is if this one breaks. We've got the stimulus vote, maybe more details on bank bailout part whatever, and the natural volatility of opex coming up. I'd say that the overall trend in the market is going to remain down until trust and accountability are restored in the market.

So where do you guys seeing it going to if the Nov lows fall? DOW 6000 and S&P at 600 wouldn't surprise me at this point. I've seen at least one nightmare scenario from a pretty reasonable source, that shows possible fall to around 4200. That'd be another 50% down.

I mostly trade in commodities, but have been on stock buying spree of late. I bought a good number of GE shares last Friday at $11.11. Now, GE normally wouldn't interest me, however, after I heard J. Immelt was named to Obama's Economic Recovery Board. I imagine they will be benefitting greatly from the 'stimulus' bill.

7k would be the lowest imo for the next few months, given that no major bank failures or something horrific occurs.

It's a cascade effect....people losing jobs +no consumerism =a continuing spiral downward. I think the big players who know what is coming are hedging their bets with a basket of other currencies and gold/silver. No way is this bank bail/rescue plan going to do much.

As I said in another thread, the trains are not even running anymore. No one is turning lose of much of the money they make, as no one has any confidence in our economy at this time.

Things will get rapidly worse, and with the imminent war between Iran and Israel fast approaching, look for even more uncertainty.

Look for a close of around 6800 after the spring reports.

GE: Immelt ran GE Healthcare in his previous life. They have a lot to gain by the IT build out for big brothers new health care database.

Market will go down this week, maybe another 300 points or so. I believe the stimulus being passed is already in the market valuation. Might see a temp upswing if/when it passes, but it won't change the trend.

I expect the market might recover, even rally on Tuesday..post holiday and folks thinking a lot of "deals" are to be had. That said, I don't think the bottom is even close yet. Once it goes below 7800 it will go down to 7500.

Today could be bloody...lots of economic news which promises to be very bad. We'll see.

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost
I think the big hit for the market will come when they
are forced to release their financials for this quarter.

I also think when the majority of the derivatives hidden on the
OTC market start to unwind it will cause a rapid decline.

Buffett said the derivatives were financial weapons of mass destruction.

I tend to agree with the man.

&print=true&dist=pr intTop]Buffett's run in with derivatives fiasco

The 100's of trillions in derivatives and when they unwind is the
wild card and I have no idea what will trigger them being brought
into the light of day from the unregulated and unlisted OTC market.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
7k would be the lowest imo for the next few months, given that no major bank failures or something horrific occurs.

9 bank failures in first 38 days of 2009.

9 bank failures in first 38 days of 2009

And as I said in my other post, the derivatives mess is the
sword of damocles hanging over the whole deal.

Default rate on corp. bonds may equa1 25 major corp. bankruptcies per month in 2009

They are also saying it possible due to the corporate bond rate
for up to 25 companies to fail per month, that is going to cause
a domino effect across interdependent accounts receivables,
ie. company A, B, C, D default and do not pay company E
which then with much less income defaults as well.







[edit on 12-2-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

reply to post by Ex_MislTech


The derivative bubble explosion will wipe out the financial system as we know it. No one has any clue how much of the economy was based on those derivatives but the shock of it collapsing at this time will be painful.

Then there is the stimulus package...

It will probably create jobs and put a chunk of liquidity into the economy. But those jobs will depend on government spending and the government will have to keep on bringing up a new $800 billion stimulus year after year or those jobs and the economy that was propped up by them will disappear.

As of this writing, the Asian stocks are down by 2-3%, it seems that the far east is having some doubts about the stimulus package.

Originally posted by jefwane
I think we're at an inflection point right now. Who the hell knows what the bottom is if this one breaks. We've got the stimulus vote, maybe more details on bank bailout part whatever, and the natural volatility of opex coming up. I'd say that the overall trend in the market is going to remain down until trust and accountability are restored in the market.

So where do you guys seeing it going to if the Nov lows fall? DOW 6000 and S&P at 600 wouldn't surprise me at this point. I've seen at least one nightmare scenario from a pretty reasonable source, that shows possible fall to around 4200. That'd be another 50% down.

S & P 600 would not surprise me either. Even lower wouldnt. Keep in mind we have already broke the 2002 lows which tells me we are going lower.

Originally posted by stevegmu
I mostly trade in commodities, but have been on stock buying spree of late. I bought a good number of GE shares last Friday at $11.11. Now, GE normally wouldn't interest me, however, after I heard J. Immelt was named to Obama's Economic Recovery Board. I imagine they will be benefitting greatly from the 'stimulus' bill.

Your a brave soul to be buying right now. Im personally shorting till the dow hits 6k and the S&P around 600. That just my personal opinion. You can always cost average down.

reply to post by wutone


I agree. I do say this about the stimulus, I do agree with the unemployment and the food stamps. We need to have a safety net even if we allow the free market to work. This is going to be painful and to maintain some sort of order while we sort through this mess is a good thing. Letting people starve will cause caos. Im totally against the bailouts however because that is propping up bad debt. I dont want to get to much into that though

Originally posted by Ex_MislTech
reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

 

I think the big hit for the market will come when they
are forced to release their financials for this quarter.

I think the big hit will start before that for the insiders will get out of the market long before the sheeple who wait do.

In Elliott Wave terms, the rally to 940+ in the SP futures was an A wave of an ABC and we are now in the process of completing the B which should have a shake out below 800 and then we can start a swift C wave (Mch) that ought to carry to between 960 and 1000+...it all depends if we have wave equality (C=A) or if C is greater (magnitude of 1.272, 1.382 or 1.618). Personally. I feel that the rally will be engineered and they will run it up just over 1000 to a) get the obvious buy stops (on shorts) there and b) close over 1000 to generate some short term Hope for the Market.

Ok well the market is going lower today. Retail news was just Ok and claims not good. I think over the next couple days we are going to attempt the 7500 mark again. Lets sit back and see what happens.

I do agree with the unemployment and the food stamps. We need to have a safety net even if we allow the free market to work.


and if the saftey net is full of holes and unfunded? Did people die of starvation before welfare, unemployment, food stamps? No, the saved for a rainy day or voluntary charity took care of them......

Otherwise I agree with your thread.......

Originally posted by Pinktip
I do agree with the unemployment and the food stamps. We need to have a safety net even if we allow the free market to work.

 

and if the saftey net is full of holes and unfunded? Did people die of starvation before welfare, unemployment, food stamps? No, the saved for a rainy day or voluntary charity took care of them......

Otherwise I agree with your thread.......

Guy but there are people who take risks out there and sometimes they fail and need a net of unemployment and food stamps. If there is no safety net you will have no risk in this country. Not all of us get a golden parachute from the government via millions of dollars like the banks. Some of us take risks, fail, have to file bankruptcy, and need the net till they get back on their feet. This country was built on taking risks and having that net that we have today helps as we see now more than ever. BTW I understand there are people who abuse the system.

[edit on 12-2-2009 by tjeffersonsghost]

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
In Elliott Wave terms, the rally to 940+ in the SP futures was an A wave of an ABC and we are now in the process of completing the B which should have a shake out below 800 and then we can start a swift C wave (Mch) that ought to carry to between 960 and 1000+...it all depends if we have wave equality (C=A) or if C is greater (magnitude of 1.272, 1.382 or 1.618). Personally. I feel that the rally will be engineered and they will run it up just over 1000 to a) get the obvious buy stops (on shorts) there and b) close over 1000 to generate some short term Hope for the Market.

i think this is pretty logical.........rarely is there not some sort of LARGE bounce to play off of after such a steep drop.....but who knows.......this time.....i think the big money knows the economy is going down further and we are not going back up fast....lots of financial connected people believe we will see major lows in the July-Aug time frame .....and i am wondering wether we bounce back to 975-1000 (s & p) between march and may. I think this depends on

1. When/IF the details of the Bank bailout show that the gov't is financing the private investors at 20:1 leverage (and the private investors can only lose what they put down not what they borrow) to over pay for the bank's soured security's ( than private interest have rigged a profit plan out of the crisis ) since these investors are linging up at the door of the fed for the TALF plan and the Bank PLan....should this be implemented in a large scale ... than Equity's CAN rally to S&P 1000 IMO....of course this will collapses like the ponzi scheme it is..but it could give us several months of boosted consumer credit....thru securitization artificially brought back to life the biggest issue with this is * the obama administration has to TAP dance around letting the investment class understand the giveaway this is (and short term credit generating potential) W/0 letting the public catch on* to the costs and risks

2. the fed's could always step in and buy futures, especially along support levels (08 lows) ... ( I tulip thinks they will, and says japan already has) i don't have a strong belief either way.



[edit on 12-2-2009 by cpdaman]