It's 'Delusional' to expect Obama to 'Jump Start' the economy: Stephen Roach

For those of us who have not kept up to date with the World Economic Forum 2009 - a quick summary so far is available on bloomberg which so far says the following:

* "The crises is getting worse" - Rupert Murdoch

* “You have to realize the size of the problem confronting us today is significantly larger than in the ‘30s,” - George Soros

* The world was in a “protracted recession” and that injecting capital into banks won’t revive it. - Justin Lin aka World Bank Chief Economist

* It’s “delusional” to expect the U.S. fiscal stimulus plan crafted by President Barack Obama to “jump start” the economy - Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley Asia’s chairman

But on the bright spot we have a charismatic new president...

Yes, it may very well be delusional, but so is the fundamental basis of modern fiscal policy.

I'm working on a little idea,, that 'hope' for the economy is sort of the converse of the 'trickle-down' theory of supply-side economics.

In one theory, money, wealth, and benefit given to corporate industry are diffused and make their way down to the common working folk, who are benefited. In the other, optimism, initiative, and motivation of the common working folk make their way up to benefit the health of corporate industry, all by itself.

Both theories seem slightly delusional.

Originally posted by Ian McLean
Yes, it may very well be delusional, but so is the fundamental basis of modern fiscal policy.

Yes, indeed....but the solution is nigh...hopefully we don't keep making the same mistakes over and over again

People delusional is not even close to what is going on.

In order for the federal government to keep working it has to bail out itself AKA Obama "economical stimulus" actually is nothing more than scraping for money to keep US government from collapsing.

Originally posted by marg6043
People delusional is not even close to what is going on.

In order for the federal government to keep working it has to bail out itself AKA Obama "economical stimulus" actually is nothing more than scraping for money to keep US government from collapsing.

But the joke is on them, 'cause it's gonna happen anyway, and those responsible (who don't escape to Paraguay) will be held accountable

Originally posted by RolandBrichter
But the joke is on them, 'cause it's gonna happen anyway, and those responsible (who don't escape to Paraguay) will be held accountable

imo i somehow don't see anyone being held accountable. they can greed and swindle their way into obtaining untold riches by stealing tax payer money - and in the end always somehow above the law.

imagine if i stole a 100 dollars from my employer. I would be prosecuted and 'unemployable' for life. and these idiots get rewarded for it!

again - no one is going to get prosecuted

Originally posted by 04326

Originally posted by RolandBrichter
But the joke is on them, 'cause it's gonna happen anyway, and those responsible (who don't escape to Paraguay) will be held accountable

again - no one is going to get prosecuted

I'm not talking about civil prosecution.....There will come a time when they will be systematically hunted down and "dealt with accordingly"

I don't believe any 'thinking' person believes Obama or anyone can 'jump-start' the economy. That said, a good portion of economics revolves around public perception and 'market psychology'. The stock market is a prime example. The majority of market investors work on what they feel is happening in the market. People spend based upon how they feel. Consumer confidence is a huge indicator of how the economy moves. Speculation which drives investing is all about mood and psychology.

Anything that can be done to provide a sense of hope will have a net positive effect on the economy. When people are being fed daily with hopelessness, doom and fear the outcome is predictable. Just breaking that cycle will help. Will we avert this disaster? Unlikely. We were dragged way too far down the hole. But we can mitigate the situation --- with a little hope.

reply to post by jtma508


I get what you're saying but "hope" can't change the mathematical reality of our situation...people desperately believed and "hoped" that their houses would eternally appreciate in value, but it didn't affect the math.

Yes, psychology drives markets to a point, but when the general trend is based on a lie, the house of cards called "hope" comes crashing down...

This is not doom for doom's sake...this is really happening and is going to get sooooo much worse....the point of accepting reality for what it is, is not to revel in the doom of it all, but to accept it and try to figure out what to do from here to better our personal and collective situation...only then do we have just cause for hope

edit for sp


[edit on 29-1-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 29-1-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


the only people capable of dealing with them is the russians , hope that russians send their Spetsnaz to deal with the NWO ....

Originally posted by 04326
imo i somehow don't see anyone being held accountable. they can greed and swindle their way into obtaining untold riches by stealing tax payer money - and in the end always somehow above the law.

imagine if i stole a 100 dollars from my employer. I would be prosecuted and 'unemployable' for life. and these idiots get rewarded for it!

again - no one is going to get prosecuted

You are correct, no one will be prosecuted. Look at Bernia Madoff... He stole $50 BILLION and is living a life of luxury in a $17 MILLION penthouse under the auspices of "House Arrest." Hell, his "House Arrest" is nicer than the nicest vacation I have ever had the luxury of taking.

No, prosecution is not what we are referring to here. Revolution is the order of the day. When things finally get bad enough, and you can rest assured that they will, these people will be hauled from their mansions, their Bentleys and their yaughts and they will strung up to light poles and trees. In short, they will be lynched very publicly and will enjoy zero sympathy from the masses that they have harmed.

So....Communism failed because of overexpansion and internal corruption.

And now Capitalism is failing because of overexpansion and internal corruption.




Maybe, as with most things, the correct path is somewhere between the two?



Don't say that in front of the Capitalists...

reply to post by kozmo


your absolutely right about a revolution. But seems like people now a days are so oblivious of everything that dissent is unimaginable let alone revolution.

i shudder to think what would happen when the economy takes a further dive and there is mass unemployment. Sure there will be demonstrations but people will be more focused on putting food on the table and paying the rent/mortgage rather than organising a revolution.

i sincerely hope that i am proven wrong.

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
So....Communism failed because of overexpansion and internal corruption.

And now Capitalism is failing because of overexpansion and internal corruption.

Maybe, as with most things, the correct path is somewhere between the two?

Don't say that in front of the Capitalists...

I firmly believe that capitalism in its current form is completely flawed. Communism can be a good thing just like capitalism - but like they say, too much of a good thing is bad for you. Especially when its 'self governing'.

It's like handing the greedy bankers a free reign - Opps!! that's already happened and look where we are now.