25% of Retailers May Go Bankrupt

Retailing has always been a tough business. Now it's a brutal business. Some observers now predict that more than 25% of retailers may go bust in the the next two years.

Paul Kedrosky:

A great WSJ quote driving home how this truly is retail's Schumpeterian moment:

Analysts estimate that from about 10% to 26% of all retailers are in financial distress and in danger of filing for Chapter 11. AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010. In the previous two years, the firm had estimated 4% to 7% of retailers then tracked were at a high risk for filing.

More here.

Granted, many retailers are perpetually on the verge of bankruptcy, but these are still unprecedented numbers. Retail, as we know it, is going to look very, very different a decade from now.

clusterstock.alleyinsider.com...

Things arent looking to well for America's future (and therefor the worlds future as well). If this next quote is true, we are all in for a rough time soon:

"We will have a lot fewer stores by the middle of 2009," says Nancy Koehn, professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. "It's happening very, very quickly because of the financial crisis and the recession."

And theres this article too:

Dark days for retail
Pain of '08 will flow into '09; malls, chains and warehouses are bracing

On Glimcher Realty Trust's income statement for 2009, a new financial measure has been inserted: They're calling it "planned surprises."

It's a sign of the times, reflecting the likelihood that the Columbus-based mall developer will lose income when retail tenants close stores this year.

Some experts say that the number of store closings in 2009 will be the most in 35 years, affecting every sector from apparel to electronics.

"You know someone's not going to be around as a retailer," said Glimcher Realty Chairman and Chief Executive Michael P. Glimcher. "We don't know exactly who it is. Someone's going to surprise us negatively."

This year promises to be full of surprises for nearly everyone associated with the retail industry, from the chains themselves and warehouse operators, to shopping-center owners and real-estate brokers. And shoppers who are still willing to spend in this listless economy might see several of their favorite stores go under.

In the past six months, chains including Circuit City, Value City Department Stores, Goody's Clothing and KB Toys have declared bankruptcy. On Friday, Circuit City became the latest to announce liquidation plans after it failed to find a buyer or arrange needed financing.

Several department-store anchors, including Sears, are on analysts' watch list. Further, the credit crunch has made it much more difficult for ailing companies to raise the money needed to reorganize and emerge from bankruptcy, experts say.

Store closings most likely will affect central Ohio shopping centers, said Columbus retail analyst Chris Boring of Boulevard Strategies. Boring expects store vacancies locally to exceed the high of 12 percent recorded in 2002.

dispatch.com...

If any of the larger malls in this country want to remain in existance through 2009, and if these predictions for store closures materialize, there's going to have to be a major shift in the business model for shopping malls. God help the viable stores that are unlucky enough to lease a space from a mall that holds a commercial mortage. Once stores start shutting down en masse, those mortgages will begin to default and even the stores that are doing well will probably be booted from their spaces once foreclosure on the property ownership group is started.

Shopping malls may one day be something to tell your grandkids about... "when i was young, we used to go where there were numerous stores and shops all gathered in one place, selling everything you can imagine..."