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Emerging Giants Russia, China, Brazil and India Looming Collapse 2009

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posted on Jan, 27 2009 @ 08:16 PM
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The big dilemma: To balance its federal budget, Russia must get a minimum of $70 per barrel for its crude oil. But at $32 and change, it's getting less than HALF that amount. The entire country is losing money hand over fist.
reply to post by Grock
 


$70/ barrel is the same figure they use here in Alaska as the price we need to balance the state's budget this year.

There is no reason to believe Russia or Alaska will get that however.
The economy is going to get worse not better and oil prices will more than likely go down. People will be laid off, drive less, take fewer vacations and trips, and stay at home more. So there will be an oil glut, excess supply. Industry will shut down and require less oil. My pessimistic side says oil will get back down to the teens.

China industry is shutting down, workers are being told to go home, go back to the countryside they came from. The workers are very unhappy because they were promised work in the cities. China fears a worker's revolt.

Russia has always been dependant of oil revinue. They were doing just fine on $140 oil. They were even starting to do their sabor rattling again. Now it's back to cheap oil and austerity. Nothing like Russian austerity in the cold dark winter out on the snowy plains! At least they have a lot of practice, they had to survive for decades on $15 oil.




posted on Jan, 27 2009 @ 11:51 PM
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The great decoupling theory bombed, but China still supplies global consumers with low cost finished goods. The sun may set on the era of 'ultra cheap' as China begins to export it's soaring inflation...but in a severe economic downturn, where are increasing numbers of consumers going to shop...Neiman Marcus? Crate & Barrel? or.......retailers like Walmart?

US manufacturing capacity and exports, have been reduced to durable goods/capital goods (items with multi-year utility), cars, trucks, construction equipment (CATERPILLARS..hint/hint). Imho, we have the vulnerable manufacturing base, not China. In an economic slump, cheap consumer goods are essential......a new SUV isn't.

Low cost consumer goods aside, who leads the Globe in IT export? (begins with C, and it isn't Connecticut).

Our exports are falling as fast, or faster than our imports. If the inflationary burden of financing our trade deficit begins to outweigh the benefits, China may cut the band on the floating dollar peg. Result? Uncle Buck sinks like a stone. While congress continue to bicker over fiscal policies & taxpayer funded stimulus bills, China has already implemented new domestic economic programs.

Nope!...unless we re-classify Big Mac' as durable goods....we're freakin' doomed!



posted on Jan, 28 2009 @ 02:05 AM
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Since the thread topic has touched on oil....

Jim Willie sat down for an interview with Zapata George Blake today.

Random discussion, heavy on oil, with references to Russia, China & the Middle East. At the end of the interview, JW briefly mentions the serious personal threat he received a couple years ago at a metals conference in Germany. Apparently, probing certain sensitive issues (e.g. Sept 11) will not be tolerated.

If you are an American, and your nationalistic sensibilities are easily offended...please, don't listen. 40min

Big Oil Geopolitics



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