2009 Stock MKT opportunity

right now everyone knows the market has been beaten down from the high of 14,000 to a level hovering near 85-8700.

The biggest opportunity i see in the next few months will be to Short the SPX and/ or DJIA AFTER we see a bit of a rally into Feb/spring based on a belief that stocks bottommed (Just before november) and that we will see the economy turn around in the fall of 09.

Should the SPX (s&p 500) get up to the high 900's or even breach 1000 (like it could in a "bear mkt rally") I think people who are friends w/ traders (or are traders themselves who can make the "bets", would have a wonderful opportunity to short the index.........because nearly EVERY economist that has been accurate about the fall so far, (ex. nuriel roubini, mish shedlock...) does not predict a recovery in 09 ........and they also DO NOT show any evidence why anyone should think there would be a FAST recovery once a floor has been reached....quite the opposite.......things point toward more a L shaped severe recession.........because of a severe debt overhand ..............lack of sustainable driver for jobs.....and basic "insolvency of the banking system" and a fed who is really doing it's best to back up wall street.......to heck w/ mainstreet.

so to conclude ........should we have a nice market rally led by "establishment economists" cheerleading stocks and using the MEDIA and people's H o p e s for higher stock prices and leveraging money managers f e a rs of missing the "fast recovery" to boost stock as (well as a belief that the economy will turn around in second half 09 and that stocks have bottomed) i would see such a big reward from shorting the S&p and DJIA should they reach levels of >990(s&p) or > 10,000 DJIA......shoud we not see a rally to those levels by MAY 1'st i would not be so bullish on the shorting potential or risk to reward level.

Anyone have any thoughts........ideas.....opinions..........charts



[edit on 10-1-2009 by cpdaman]

the 2003 analog would suggest a retest of the lows in Mch and then a sharp and swift bear market rally.

I Found This Very Enlightening

Volume and Time
by Brian Bloom, Beyond Neanderthal | January 9, 2009

...this begs the question as to whether the authorities (Federal Reserve, Establishment, call them what you will) will be able to orchestrate an outcome which is in alignment with their objectives.

The short answer to this question is that they haven’t got a snowball’s hope in hell, because right now they are trying to control forces which are infinitely greater than they can muster – but let’s focus on that which will more immediately impact on your and my interests. Will the equity markets rise from this point and should we be doing anything about it?

www.financialsense.com...

Mod Edit: External Source Tags – Please Review This Link.


[edit on 10/1/2009 by Mirthful Me]

[edit on 1-10-09 by atoms.2008]

Mod Edit: Terms & Conditions Of Use – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 10/1/2009 by Mirthful Me]


I'm sorry, I digress




[edit on 1-10-09 by atoms.2008]

I just glanced at the chart and it looks like were going to have another 15-18 years below the average trend (if history repeats itself)

reply to post by TrainDispatcher


I'm afraid that's what the "S&P Composite Index: Regression to Trend" looks like

As Well As A 100-150% Correction Below Trend !




[edit on 1-10-09 by atoms.2008]

I think that barring any blowups between now and inauguration we will get a "Hope and Change" rally most likely into March or April. I'm in agreement with cpdam that it will be a near perfect shorting opportunity. I'm watching treasuries like a hawk right now though. So far it appears that foreign appetite for US debt is stable. When the real pricetag of the upcoming "stimulus" is known we'll see what happens to that appetite.

I think riding the volatility waves for oil will be great and profitable trades. I also believe, like others on here, that buying into and shorting the indexes will be great. Especially if hedge fund activity starts to begin again.

I think the most important bit of info that SHOULD have been included in this post is that the "Average Joe" should NOT look at this an opportunity to get in to the stock market.

Yes, there's a good chance that we'll see a true bear rally in the coming weeks. It could last until April, or it could last a week or two. You get on the wrong side of that bet, if you don't know what you're doing, and you'll be scraping your butt off your tonsils.

The fundamentals are not sound, and even the best traders are befuddled as to the long-term. This is a daytrader's environment, and a damn GOOD daytrader at that. If you're not damn good, don't jump in. A true bear rally will rip your face off. That's what they do; they sucker in the amateurs and divest them of their money.

Originally posted by anachryon
I think the most important bit of info that SHOULD have been included in this post is that the "Average Joe" should NOT look at this an opportunity to get in to the stock market.

I agree. I don't believe in being invested in the long term here. I put my money in and take it out when I think I can make 5% or more. Such as on oil trades. This market is very frightening though. Sometimes I will put money in for a night so I can catch the pop (or drop) in the morning and it is nerve racking. Because you know that something could open up 10-20% lower/higher!

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


You've got more guts than I do. I'm all cash and have been for months. I can read the tape, but no way in hell do I have faith in my skills OR in all the headfakes and pumpjobs since September. Pfft.

Originally posted by anachryon
You've got more guts than I do. I'm all cash and have been for months. I can read the tape, but no way in hell do I have faith in my skills OR in all the headfakes and pumpjobs since September. Pfft.

Well I think if you understand macroeconomic news and government intervention, then you can do pretty well predicting how things will go. For the most part. Like if you heard about the Middle East, you would know to buy oil, and you make 25%+. Then you hear about the job report and oil inventor report and you take your money out and short oil and make 15%. That is why I like trading oil, because it is very sensitive and volatile.

I think you should go here if you haven't already:

www.enterprisecorruption.com...

www.wiredpirate.com...

Tomorrow everyone should watch

GM (General Motors)
F (Ford)
MS (Morgan Stanley)

These stocks are most likely to increase. I like a GM buy tomorrow the most because cost cutting objectives were just announced and it may not pop like MS will tomorrow because of the Citi Group deal before you can really get any benefit off of it.

Earnings season kicks-off tomorrow, I think we could see continued pressure on equities early in the week. As you can see, NYA is reflecting negative earnings expectations.



A near-term retest of the Nov lows is still realistic imo...with the 'possibility' of an inauguration back-tick near the end of the week. An opportunity to buy the rumor sell the news, similar to the Nov 4 election day build-up & sell-off.

If the market responds favorably to Obamanomics in the Springtime, and a person is determined to gamble...but doesn't have a margin account...but does have a friend that is willing to enter a short their behalf...assume unlimited risk, dreaded maintenance calls...and/or...absorb the tax liabilities associated with "your" substantial gain...then you have a friend indeed! OTOH, if you value the friendship, you might consider using a cash account and having a look at various ETF's like the super-liquid "Spyders". Still risky biz, and from a karmic perspective...I wouldn't recommend it

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


That is what I have been doing. When Oil is low and you think it's going to go up buy PLLL. When you think oil is high and about to go down you can either short USO or go long DUG.

This market is NUTS. If you read above I recommended

GM
Ford
Morgan Stanley

Today, nowhere was safe but GM and Ford ended up in the green. Morgan Stanley was up 8%+ today and there was no indication it was going to come down. Now it went down 1.5%. Simply amazing. Astounding.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
This market is NUTS. If you read above I recommended

GM
Ford
Morgan Stanley

Today, nowhere was safe but GM and Ford ended up in the green. Morgan Stanley was up 8%+ today and there was no indication it was going to come down. Now it went down 1.5%. Simply amazing. Astounding.

Like I said, the fundamentals are completely unsound. It's scary!! MS should have been way up. C was down as expected, but it looks like people were really buying the rumor on them - the scuttle over the weekend on C was u-u-u-UGLY. Should've been down more IMO. Volume was high on both, looks like quite the tug o'war going on between the buys & sells.

Keep an eye on BAC. Something's up there too.

VIX is picking up; it's back towards mid-Dec levels, so things are gonna get crazier and crazier leading in to the inauguration. Anyone who's in should be on guard.

there are plenty of sites where you can discuss individual investing strategies and you can discuss individual companies.

ATS is a site for alternative news and conspiracies, not stock tips.

I'm closing the thread with the following disclaimer.

THE ABOVE STOCK TIPS AND ADVICE ARE NOT FROM THE ABOVE NETWORK LLC. ANYONE WHO RELIES ON STOCK ADVICE FROM MEMBERS OF AN INTERNET FORUM NEEDS TO THINK BEFORE ACTING ON THAT ADVICE. THE ABOVE NETWORK LLC WILL NOT BE HELD RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYONE'S INVESTMENT LOSSES.