Peter Schiff Predicts Imminent Doom, page 6
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reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 07:29 PM by zvezdar
reply to post by Power_Semi



Yeah i dont disagree with what you are saying, particularly asset prices will fall as part of the correction and as bankruptcies occur there will be fire sales and the like. Thats part of what must happen for a correction to take place. I dont think you will see massive corrections across a wide range of sectors, its playing out almost like dominos falling rather than everything falling at once and so that has left us with a small amount of inflation in prices overall. I'd say that will continue, i wouldnt expect to see negative inflation rates.

My concern is that this will contribute to the hysterics over deflation within central banks and governments, leading to increased stimulus packages and further loosening of monetary policy. You can see it in the writings of guys like Krugman, they believe that price deflation must be avoided at all costs. Problem is that the only way you can correct prices that have been inflated within a bubble is to let them fall; these guys dont seem to get that message.

So I dont see it as being a prolonged period of price deflation across all sectors of the economy, simply because these guys will almost certainly overreact and send us quickly into the next inflationary period with even worse consequences than the current problems. They are doing everything posisble to try and prop up asset prices using the same tools that got us into this mess to begin with. Almost seems like an institutionalised insanity has taken hold.


reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 07:45 PM by zvezdar
Originally posted by huckfinn


How can governments or central banks stop it from happening? Are they in the business of making specific dreams come true?


I think you are being too simplistic here. Firstly, govts can and do influence the flow of funds into particular assets classes through legislation and regulatory requirements. This has the effect of inflating certain classes to the detriment of others and hence creating bubbles that will correct in the future as investors realise that the prices arent being dirven by fundamentals.

Additionally fiscal and monetary policy also directly affects the underlying businesses and economies that those businesses are trading in. If a central bank is cutting its interest rates to stimulate economic growth and spending it directly affects the underlying businesses within the economy. It also has the effect of bringing forward earnings/spending that may have resulted in the future to a current period. That changes the investor's view of what the future is likely to provide (ie raises earnings expectations into the future, as recent data is always used as a guide and they dont relaise that the accelerated growth is almost always bringing forward furture income, and so reducing the income to come as the cycle busts).

I think thats enough of a demonstration of the ffects that can happen.

When this guy Schiff speaks he does so based on his vision of what the future looks like. His future involves a desolate US economy for some reason and he wants whoever hears his voice to position themselves to take advantage of his vision.


I agree with you here, this is Schiff's vision of the future. Unfortunately none of us can predict what will happen and so its just one possibility. Also, just because he was right about what is happening now doesnt mean he is right about what will happen tomorrow. Too much skill is attributed to those who get it right once when most others are wrong, while forgetting that they were wrong while others were correct. Far more randomness than is given credit for (and the views i put forward about the future are subject to the same thing; i only say what i think and could easily be very wrong. In fact i am almost certain to be wrong about a lot of things).

I am not buying gold at $850/ounce.


Neither am i, smells like another bubble brewing to me. Similar to oil a year ago. An old saying goes "when you see the stupid money coming in, get out".


reply posted on 9-1-2009 @ 10:47 PM by kcfusion
reply to post by Jim Scott



OMG you are a genius you solved the whole problem all by your own self! You are completely right - Print more money from thin air to stabilise the economy. Nice waste of the ald brains cells there. Any more wisdom you would like to add? Maybe this time try thinking with your brain not with your A$$!


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 12:46 AM by Tippys Dad
reply to post by kcfusion



Wow, what a nice way to disagree with someone. You're parents must be very proud.


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 07:09 AM by vigusa
reply to post by questioningall



What he says is true yes... but... if everybody stops using american currency and starts getting rid of it the economy will certainly collapse without a faint of a doubt


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 09:07 AM by OBE1
I see this morning that www.paynoincometax.com... has been suspended.

When I posted that url last night, the web page was active. Featured was a letter from Irwin Schiff dated 2008 discussing his recent transfer to the Federal penitentiary in Terre Haute, Indiana, along with some commentary on the US income tax code.

Spooks never sleep?


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 10:16 AM by audas
Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
As things go on and on and Peter Schiff explains his positions more and more and I think his position is a fallacy somewhat. We will be getting massive inflation and the economy will continue to get worse but it will not be armageddon. The rest of the world is doing the SAME exact things. My economics teacher once was talking about treasuries and she said that they are safe as long as the U.S. government and economy is safe, if it isn;t, well, we are all screwed wherever you are anyway.

Honestly, how can he think foreign stocks of all things would be safe if the U.S. collapsed. It is crazy.


The hardest thing for Americans to realise is that they are not the end all and be all of the planet - you have only been a super power for 30 years, you ascended to this position as a result of taking advantage financially from the second world war by assisting europe militarily and financially through loans on very unfavourable terms.

beyond that you have spent the vast majority of your history being everyone biatch - seriously - nothing much. Since the collapse of the soviet union in has taken little more than ten years for America to fall into ruin and you will return to your STANDARD global position - right now your country is less than the EU, it is significantly less than the any asian union with your GDP not being much more than that of Japan.

Your overstimation of your ownself worth is a very typical american trait, one that has been deserved for an exceptionally dhort period of time and has already finished, amserica is perhaps the shortest living world power EVER.

The world will not collapse without america, all considered and respected thinkers on the issue would see it as a period of great flourishing of the planet since your success has implicitly relied on the subordination and oppression of all others, your initital success comes directly from the misry of others - so trust me when I say to you it would be the best thing that could happen to the world if america went balls up - not just logically and empricially but emotionaly - yes we ALL want you gone, from australia, europe, asia, africa and especially south america.

You are unaware of this as you are blinded by your ignorance, arrogance and overestimation of your own self worth.


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 10:26 AM by questioningall
Originally posted by TheAgentNineteen
Originally posted by questioningall


I sure hope people have listened to him and have been getting out of the U.S. dollar.




I hate to break it to you, but this has to be the most ironic "advice" ever. You state that this gentleman predicts a future American Crisis, yet, at the same time he advises everyone to pull out of the United States Dollar based Currency. Do you not realize that by pulling out of the United States Dollar, you are in fact bringing about the very "crisis" of which he speaks?


The small amount of money everyone in the U.S. has would not affect the dollar by all of us getting out of it. If we got into metals - the dollar strength would not be affected.

BUT - when other countries that have trillions tied up in loans with us....if they stopped buying our debt via T-bills - then that would be what would cause our fall.

So, lets look at what is going on..... China and other countries who have financed us, are now pulling back, as they have their own economies to worry about and pouring money down a black hole - doesn't do them any good.

So, now that we know it is other countries that will affect the value of the dollar and not the small amount us individuals have - and the fact those countries are going to worry about their own countries within the next few months - that is what will cause the dollar death.

So....will you be protected when that happens? Will you have something from what the value of the dollar is right now? Will you be able to still get by with your dollar value being 10% of what it is right now?

Thus, protect yourself with your value of the dollar right now, with about the only thing out there of investment value in todays market.....
precious metals!

Take the advise of economist or leave it, but after the SHTF don't complain - as you have been forewarned.

www.safehaven.com... all kinds of info on metals


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 11:23 AM by Anonymous ATS
reply to post by audas



You need to work on your facts. The US GDP is about 13.8 trillion, Japan is 4.3; ours is more than 3 times as much. The European Union is about 16.9 trillion, and that is comprised of 27 countries that only manage to beat the US's by 3 trillion.

Now, I don't think anyone is claiming that the entire world will fall into ruin if the United State's economy collapses, but most of the world's financial markets will. Look at what has been happening over the past several months; some countries stock indexes have fallen over 50% due to this US centric crisis. How do you think most first world nation's citizens will react if all their savings disappear? Social chaos would be very possible.


reply posted on 10-1-2009 @ 07:43 PM by Illusionsaregrander
Originally posted by audas

The world will not collapse without america, all considered and respected thinkers on the issue would see it as a period of great flourishing of the planet since your success has implicitly relied on the subordination and oppression of all others, your initital success comes directly from the misry of others - so trust me when I say to you it would be the best thing that could happen to the world if america went balls up - not just logically and empricially but emotionaly - yes we ALL want you gone, from australia, europe, asia, africa and especially south america.


I am curious, since you seem to have such a handle on history, could you name me a European nation, (or any nation) that has had success that was not based on the subordination and oppression of others?


Originally posted by audas
You are unaware of this as you are blinded by your ignorance, arrogance and overestimation of your own self worth.


That is partially correct. You are right that there are Americans who are unaware of how our nation rose to a position (no matter how short lived) of power. However, your implication that America is somehow different in this is nothing short of hypocrisy.

I would lay out the facts for you, but my experience has told me that I only waste my own time doing so. If you want to believe the utter crap you are told by your media about your own nobility, then you will. I just find it rather "ignorant, arrogant and an overestimation of your own self worth" to sit in the holier than thou seat when all we are doing is the same thing every nations leaders everywhere have done when presented the opportunity. Especially as your use of language indicates some connection to Britain, and they are the last people on the planet that have any right at all to talk about building on oppression and misery as if they were exempt.

Do I personally think it is right? No, I dont, I think we should figure out a way to live, (all of us) that is NOT based on the benefiting from the misery of others. But dont act as though your nation is any different. All Americans arent stupid enough to take you at your word, some of us actually know some historical facts about other countries.



[edit on 10-1-2009 by Illusionsaregrander]


reply posted on 14-1-2009 @ 07:59 PM by shug7272
Originally posted by mecheng
reply to
post by Realtruth



Here's the kicker... Many of us have been told over and over that social security will be gone by the time we retire, and therefore we need to put 15% of our income into 401k or we won't be able to retire.

Smart or not, the overwhelming majority of my savings is in my 401k. Consequently I only have a few limited choices of where to put it - invest in different mutual funds or move it into more conservative government bonds.

So it's not exactly as easy for most, if they are like me, to simply 'get out of the dollar'.
If you want to save, use a savings account. If you want to gamble buy stocks/401k. You would think this is easy but it is not. People think they can "save" and make a # load of money out of that savings at the same time. God humans are dumb.
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