The Economic Crisis: Let´s Be Honest For A Moment And Share

Originally posted by TH3ON3
I'm in antiques and I can say for sure that high dollar antiques and other objects d' art are not selling for near what they once did. This is a direct result of the bad econop0my, and I too am scrambling to pay store/car/living costs. So far no late pays, but in a few months who knows.

Still I would say that true valuables like antiques are a way to protect yourself in times of crisis as they should go up in value. More stable would be to buy as much Gold, Silver or Platinum bullion you can lay your hands on using your US Dollars to protect against a possible Dollar crash.

That is if one still has reserves that is. Someone mentioned we will be going back to a feudal barter system if the situation keeps going downhill.

I believe that may be right.

Hope you will pull through 2009, thanks for sharing

Originally posted by Simon_Boudreaux
Doesn't sound like much to some but for us in this small town and small surrounding towns this is devastating for both of these companies to do this in the same week. I work at neither of these places but do know many that do, and those many were a lot of the ones let go.

I just went back to school to make a career change but now I'm wondering if getting the loans for tuition was a good idea.

Exactly my point, looks like small communities are getting hit first as opposed to the big metropolitan areas. Maybe you notice more in a smaller community like we see over here.

Hopefully you will keep an income to pay for your tuition, even if it is working as a broom sweeper or paperboy. I know I would if I had to.

Thanks...

[edit on 6-1-2009 by MoonMine]

Originally posted by Cool Hand Luke
My message to my neighbors down south is to don't close your borders. The only people you are keeping out is the future Teslas, Einsteins, Von Brauns, Henry Fords, Bill Gates etc.

Hmmm---- Maybe Canada will close its own borders voluntarily in a while... There is still no government over there....

Glad to hear that at least there is enough work to go around in Winnipeg!

Thanks

I live in the Philippines. So far we are minimally affected unlike our neighbors but our biggest newspaper has had fewer sections since Christmas. Before there were up to 15 on Friday to Mondays but now there are 5 or 6. The Sports section was combined into the front main section. The last time that happened was a decade ago. The local fastfood giant has started offering discounts. The last time this happened was in 2001 when our economy struggled to grow. At least now I can look forward to cheap meals.

Originally posted by jkm1864
I was working offshore around galveston the other day and I counted over 30 oil tankers parked up doing nothing. I am worried because why would oil tankers stay parked offshore while full?

Primarily because of this:

So much surplus oil is sloshing around the world right now that some companies, including Shell, are using oil tankers for storage.

www.nytimes.com...

I live in northern Kentucky and work as a cook in a what has always been a very busy restaurant. Business has definitely declined, which means we get less hours. Because we're slow, we're scheduled to come into work later and get off earlier.

A few weeks ago, one of the cooks came in for his shift and was sent home before he even clocked in. Managers have started pulling crew positions in addition to doing all their managerial duties, so there's less shifts to go around now. I guess they figure they can cut labor that way by having a salaried manager do some of the cooks' work. Managers have also started doing some of the closing side work that crew normally does in order to save labor.

During this time of all of us having to fight for hours, the kitchen manager hired several new people which means these new people are taking a big chunk of our hours. I guess what they're trying to do is give less hours to those of us who have been at the restaurant for many years and who are paid pretty good.

They don't really care that we've been hard-working, responsible, dependable, and loyal employees who count on working a certain number of hours so we can pay our bills. I guess all they care about is finding ways to save money, and if it means hiring several new people at minimum wage so they don't have us higher paid employees working as much, then they'll do that...no matter that it affects us. I guess they're trying to save their own jobs.

Losing hours means more than just losing income. If we go below 20 hours a week, we also lose our health insurance. So far we're fine, but I certainly wonder what to expect in the next few months.

Servers used to make around $100-200 a day in tips. Now, most of the servers are telling me that people are tipping less, and they're getting less tables. In addition, they're saying that people are also sharing more meals to cut costs, as well as ordering appetizers instead of an entree to have as their meal. Despite making less money, most of the servers are doing okay even though they're not making what they used to; I guess it's enough to get by.

Many of the full-time servers, including a couple of our trainers, are complaining their hours have been cut drastically. I looked at the schedule and was shocked to see that some of our best servers were only scheduled 2-3 shifts in a week. And on top of that, they keep hiring new part-time servers. I'm not sure what's going on unless they're trying to get more part-time employees so they don't have to pay health insurance benefits and vacation.

Businesses are closing and plants are laying off. The cost of utilities and food have gone way up. Gas went down for awhile, but it's on the rise again.

The Goodwill in my neighborhood is always packed! We went there last week midday on a Monday. The parking lot was almost completely full. We drive by there every day, and it seems like it's always busy...nothing like it used to be.

One of our friends said her place of employment has cut staff dramatically. Where she used to work in an office with 4-5 other employees, she's said she's the only one left...other than the managers.

The company her husband works for was doing ok...or so I thought because he was getting good raises and promotions. I just read that there stock has plummeted, is worth only pennies a share now, and I read an article that said his company will likely be sold or go under because of its mounting debt.

My parents, who live several hours south from us, live in a very rural area. Seems like robberies are on the rise there...I'm guessing from the bad economy. The community they live in has extremely high unemployment.

Anyway, I wish you and your family all the best for 2009. I hope that things will get better for ya'all.

Edited to add a little more information.





[edit on 6-1-2009 by cornblossom]

Originally posted by MoonMine
More stable would be to buy as much Gold, Silver or Platinum bullion you can lay your hands on using your US Dollars to protect against a possible Dollar crash.

Didn't reinhardt predict that gold might be called in (just like in the 1930s)? In the event of a dollar crash and hyper-inflation, the best defense are foreign currencies.

reply to post by eldard


If people have been smart and not bought gold through official channels nor stored it in banks and such, it really shouldn't affect anyone if they "call in" gold now, should it? "From my cold, dead hands" can apply to many things in addition to firearms.

reply to post by MoonMine


Bon Scott. The legends of all legends. That man is a god here in Australia. Even people that hate rock and rock love him to death. Anyone that loves Bon Scott is a friend of mine.

Yep, New Zealand and us get lumped into the same category. But that's OK. We're pretty close in culture, economy and the love of sport.

reply to post by burdman30ott6


If they call gold in, you're gonna have trouble selling it legally anyway. Either way they can call it, or they can crash it. I'd still go with foreign currencies.

I live in North Atlanta, Georgia, and things are certainly not horrible yet. The house next door to us is in foreclosure and there are atleast 4 other houses empty in our middle class neighborhood (home prices 200 - 250K.)

Restaurants also seem to be doing very fine - but that is actually not surprising because people use eating out as a stress-reliever and this is usually one of the last expenses to be cut. I suspect by this time next year restaurants will really begin to disappear. I think we are still in the very early stages of this crisis.

Suburban Philadelphia. I've posted this in some form or another before, but another shot won't hurt.

Spring 08 I was employed in upper management in the advertising/marketing industry at a small, family owned & operated company. Business dried up at the beginning of the year. Part timers were laid off first, then the full timers low on the totem pole, then I was laid off. Less than 10 people remain employed there today.

I had been working part time and was able to move to full time as a baker at a restaurant after the layoff. Business was booming over the summer, but in September there was a noticeable slowdown. It's fallen off a cliff since then. Everyone's hours have been cut. My husband also works at the same restaurant as Chef; his hours were cut too. He was able to pick up a consulting job with another restaurant and I picked up some waitressing shifts.

The restaurant has started aggressive lunch specials just to get people in the door. We added daily dinner specials. We put out more coupons.
It's not working.
A casual passer-by could look in our restaurant at peak times and think we're doing fine. We're not. Covers (number of diners) are down by half at least. Check averages are down 50-70%. People are ordering less - no appetizers, no desserts, no alcohol with dinner. I can't remember the last time we put out one of our $30 entrees; people are ordering the $15 meal and sharing that. Tips are down a lot. More people than ever are straight out not leaving a tip, and those that do are leaving 10-13%.

My former employer has re-tooled their entire business plan and have slowly started turning a profit again. It's small, but it's there. They're landing new clients and getting more orders in. Because of that, I've been able to do some consulting a few hours a week with them.

Unfortunately, the restaurant my hubby was consulting at has closed as of Jan 1. Another restaurant nearby is closing next month. Yet another probably won't make it past February. We have friends at the remaining restaurants and they're all going through the same thing we're going through at our restaurant. None are hiring.
Two stores in our town have closed in recent months. An antiques store that's been in business for over 20 years is clearing out inventory and closing. The only place doing well is the discount dry goods shop.

If you walk down the street and look around, things would look fairly normal.
I give it 6 months around here before the empty storefronts and long-gone restaurants bring reality to the forefront.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
If people have been smart and not bought gold through official channels nor stored it in banks and such, it really shouldn't affect anyone if they "call in" gold now, should it? "From my cold, dead hands" can apply to many things in addition to firearms.

We need to remember, in April 1933, the 'patriotic' Americans that surrendered their Gold coin were compensated @ the official rate of $20.67 oz.....but most Americans felt the way you & I do burdman. Approximately 78% of the 'Gold coin' in circulation at the time of the "confiscation" simply went into hiding. I think the reaction would be identical today.

In March 1933, a month before Roosevelt nationalized the peoples Gold, the amount of Gold coin in circulation was 17.8 million ounces. After the confiscation, according to official records (Jan 1934), the amount of Gold coin "in circulation" was estimated at 13.9 million ounces. These figures prompted the following response from Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 - "We therefore concluded that in Jan. 1934 the bulk of the [13.9 million ounces] was retained illegally in private hands."

This was my response to a similar discussion on a stock-board last night:

By Executive Order, President Barack Obama declares on the evening of January 20, 2009:

ALL persons are hereby required to deliver on or before April 5, 2009, to a Federal Reserve Bank or a branch or agency thereof or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System ALL gold coin, gold bullion, gold jewelry, and dental gold now owned by them. Lawful citizens of the United States of America will be compensated with a special issue US Treasury bond denominated in Yapese Rai Stones.


Edit to add: Excellent thread topic MoonMine

Here in N. New Mexico, naturally, more & more conversation about things economic. Construction has stalled, a few restaurant closures, tourism down, but I think we're still a ways from critical. Give it a month or so.

GLTY & Yours


[edit on 6-1-2009 by OBE1]

reply to post by OBE1


My parents still live in Southern NM (where I was essentially born and certainly raised). I actually think states like NM will weather this storm fairly well as long as things don't completely colapse across the country. For all intents & purposes, New Mexico outside of the Taos, Santa Fe, Albuquerque coridor never really recovered from the 2001 recession and it can be argued that they never recovered fully from the Carter recession 30 years ago. When the smelters & copper mines down south started closing or going to the minimum skeleton crews neede to run the leech mining operations off the old tailings piles the economy of the bootheel went to hell...

I'll tell you what worries my dad alot more than the national economic situation... water. The Rio Grande is basically drying up and the aquefers are going right along with it. My parents' well was drilled in Luna County way back in the mid 80's. They hit water at something like 70 feet and then hit good water at 110 feet. My dad had then drill that aquefer down another 70 feet for a 180 foot deep well. About 8 years ago their pump went bad so they had to pull the well. The water table had dropped to where there was only about 20 feet of water left in the well. He had them pull the casings and drill it down an additional 70 feet. Last summer the same well was struck by lightning and had to be pulled again. In 7 years time the well has already dropped another 40 feet. He had them go down another 50 feet but said that's it. If the well runs dry, he's going to pack him & my mom up and move, hopefully selling the house & their land.

The idiot government of New Mexico way back when passed a law that allowed land to be sold independantly of any water rights that were originally attatched to the land. Those water rights could then be transferred to any chunk of land in the state. As a result you had companies like Phelps Dodge & AASARCO coming in, buying up a massive chunk of land, transfering the water rights over to the Santa Rita pit or down to the Antelope Wells smelter operations, and then selling the land back to private citizens with a token 3 acre feet of water rights the state mandated as the minimum a tract of land could be left with. Translation, New Mexico, a place which can be staggering in both beauty and desolation, was raped of her water. Add in that dumb ass compact that requires New Mexico to provide water that simply no longer flows through the Rio Grande to Texas and Mexico and you've got a powder keg waiting to explode.

reply to post by eldard


Excellent point eldard.

Thanks & Estrella

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
reply to post by eldard

 

If people have been smart and not bought gold through official channels nor stored it in banks and such, it really shouldn't affect anyone if they "call in" gold now, should it? "From my cold, dead hands" can apply to many things in addition to firearms.

I am with you all the way.

In fact this weekend I am spending some of my savings on family protection

(Don´t ask)

Originally posted by anachryon
Unfortunately, the restaurant my hubby was consulting at has closed as of Jan 1. Another restaurant nearby is closing next month. Yet another probably won't make it past February. We have friends at the remaining restaurants and they're all going through the same thing we're going through at our restaurant. None are hiring.
Two stores in our town have closed in recent months. An antiques store that's been in business for over 20 years is clearing out inventory and closing. The only place doing well is the discount dry goods shop.

What is the real givaway is the discussions with the goods suppliers. I have dealings with suppliers of Crisps, Nuts, Chocolate, Icecream and other sweets, and naturally we discuss the current situation. The main Lays supplier (Crisps) also delivers to Mercadona and MasYMas, both large supermarket chains.

The claim is that the last quarter both these chains lost 60-70% of business to smaller chains because of the penny differences and stalled tourist visits. That is quite a drop...

The Frigo (IceCreams) representative mentioned that he saw around a 40% drop delivering to chains and well over 80% to restaurants as opposed to last year.

Originally posted by anachryon
If you walk down the street and look around, things would look fairly normal.
I give it 6 months around here before the empty storefronts and long-gone restaurants bring reality to the forefront.

At this point, I am afraid you may very well be right.

Thanks for sharing, I think it is great to get a picture from around the world how we are doing.

Keep us posted everyone, if I hear more developments I will add

You know, talking to others about it helps, it really does for me.

Originally posted by cornblossom
The company her husband works for was doing ok...or so I thought because he was getting good raises and promotions. I just read that there stock has plummeted, is worth only pennies a share now, and I read an article that said his company will likely be sold or go under because of its mounting debt.

The dot com company I worked for went from close to 300$ to 0,91$ in less than a year. (2002) One moment you are worth millions, next moment you can barely make rent. Funny how that works.

In any case, thank you for that very well written and honest post cornblossom.
Your wishes are much appreciated... and ofcourse all the best to you and yours too!!!

reply to post by burdman30ott6

New Mexico, with all of it's unique character & beauty, is no stranger to poverty. The state historically records one of the lowest national per capita incomes. I actually relocated here from So Cal (San Clemente) in 92...a result of the impact of the recession 90-91. My business in Cali was gutted...in contrast, the local Santa Fe economy was booming through that downturn...in part because major publications like 'Conde Nast' kept declaring Santa Fe one the worlds top tourist destinations. The 2001 - 2003 recession was but a wrinkle in Northern New Mexico. State employment, tourism, construction & real estate form the backbone of our local economy. Due to the rapid expansion...left with no underpinnings to support it...this downturn will be more severe imo.

As you mentioned, the mismanagement of land/water usage is haunting. An example would be our upscale Las Campanas development with it's two J. Nicklaus signature golf courses. While the project did support local construction, real estate, and related service industries...it remains another blight on NM' history of poor resource conservatorship. All hopes pinned on the San Juan-Chama Diversion Project...essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.

As I look out my window, snow blankets the Sangre de Cristo range...the Jemez to the West...pinion as green as ever....

maybe this will be a good water year


[edit on 7-1-2009 by OBE1]

Southern Arizona and a bit of a different take on it all and how deep and fast it's all going.

I got debt free three years ago, and started preparing by taking gun courses, learning to cook from scratch, lowering my electric bills and so forth. My only debt is my mortgage.

I bought a home way below market value with a conventional loan and have since lost all equity in it. I figured the bubble would burst, but never figured on losing this much. But it is still cheaper than renting for me.

I own my own business and surprisingly, 2008 was one of my biggest years ever. The money I normally spent on having a good time went to serious preparing. I stockpiled food, bought canning equipment, put in a garden, planted fruit trees, installed solar and so forth. I kept almost everything I had liquid and had enough savings to live six months without any income.

I figured I was in better shape than most people, and that as long as I made at least half my income, I could make it. It would be tough, but I could do it.

My business isn't just down, it's non-existent. I run it fairly lean anyway, so there's nowhere to cut; I could save maybe a couple of hundred dollars a month if I really work at it. Which I will and which won't make a difference.

By June at the earliest, September at the latest, I won't be able to pay the mortgage. I thought long and hard about taking my savings and walking away, but decided that I would probably stay here six months to a year after I default. I may just decide to default earlier.

Because of our proximity to the border, there's plenty of cheap labor, so getting a crappy job is impossible. Arizona is fueled by construction and tourism. . . and little else.

Grocery stores are laying off, big box stores have empty shelves, strip malls are empty. Those places still open have giant signs proclaiming everything is 75% off and people still aren't buying.

There is no safe haven, no way to prepare, nothing you can do to avoid being swallowed up by this Depression. I've decided to get rather philosophical about it, and just let it all go.