Quake Watch 2009

reply to post by JayinAR
I'm an avid follower and have a pretty good grasp of the Geological aspects and process of Earthquakes, but, I'm no Nobel prize winner

I'll point ya at where Phage does some *averaging* and you can debate him there on it maybe?

Cluster 7.0+ Magnitude Earthquakes Hit Vanuatu & Santa Cruz Islands
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I did state in my 180 degree SoCal quake thread...

180 Deg Slip/Strike Eq in SoCal???
www.abovetopsecret.com...

...That that area was running above average from the Keesler quakes...in that area...I'd have to do more in depth study of that other plates history to give a more informed view one way or the other...

Seems MischeviousElf is calling him out as well...Hmmm...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 10/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by JayinAR

I guess everyone might have a different idea about what "normal" is. According to earthquake records since 1900, I suppose some might consider the past decade or so abnormal (abnormally low).
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/7f4d694099d1.png[/atsimg] neic.usgs.gov...

I don't know if you can call clusters of strong quakes normal, but they are not all that unusual.
Using the criteria of 6.5+ and a maximum time span of 1 week between quakes and a minimum of 4 quakes, I find quite a few such clusters since 1973. A few notable ones:

04/14/95 6.5
04/17/95 6.8
04/20/95 6.6
04/21/95 7.2
04/21/95 6.9
04/21/95 6.8
04/21/95 6.8
04/23/95 6.8
04/23/95 6.5
04/28/95 6.9
05/02/95 6.7
05/05/95 7.1


05/24/94 6.6
05/25/94 6.5
05/29/94 6.5
06/02/94 7.8
06/03/94 6.6
06/04/94 6.5
06/06/94 6.8
06/09/94 8.2

10/11/92 7.4
10/15/92 6.8
10/17/92 6.7
10/17/92 6.5
10/18/92 7.2
10/22/92 6.6
10/22/92 6.5
10/24/92 6.6
10/30/92 6.5
10/31/92 6.5



[edit on 10/8/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage


Lots of numbers is a good way to make it all seem fine, but I counted four 7 magnitudes in ALL of your examples.

Oops, sorry, five.


[edit on 8-10-2009 by JayinAR]

And those are samples from three years.
These came within a week, I believe.
So yeah, the debate is out there as to whether this is "normal" or not.

I say it isn't.
Averages are a tricky thing.

Yeah, X amount over a year is one thing. But same amount over a week compounds the averages exponentially.

reply to post by Phage
Sorry to ~name drop~ Phage...

He hit me with that ~above average~ and I'm not in a position to either confirm or deny such a trend...

Is it unusual?...not to me in a historic context...but in a ~short term~ event with the whole world watching...it would appear to be in an internet age...

As stated, I will hold my opinion till future events say otherwise...

reply to post by JayinAR

Well I wasn't about to go through the whole list.
How about this? Monthly numbers for quakes 7+
9/2007 6
5/1990 5
6/1996 5
1/2001 5
1/2004 5
10/1974 4
10/1975 4
4/1977 4
3/1978 4
6/1982 4
5/1992 4
10/1995 4
2/1996 4
1/1999 4

And these are calendar months, not 30 day periods.

hmmm...

And while the debate continues...more to add to the ~fire~...

MAP 5.3 2009/10/08 21:37:21 -12.400 166.100 54.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2009/10/08 21:16:12 -12.858 166.188 9.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.0 2009/10/08 19:42:46 -16.035 168.203 291.2 VANUATU

[edit on 10/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Phage


Can I see your source for that?
I'd like to compare locality.

And then I'll respond accordingly.

No matter how you cut it, I'm guessing, the recent activity is highly unordinary.

reply to post by JayinAR

The database is the same one I've been using all along:
neic.usgs.gov...

For example, the specifics for Sept. 2007:
Month Day Time(hhmmss.mm)UTC Latitude Longitude Magnitude
9 2 10518.15 -11.61 165.76 7.2
9 12 234903.72 -2.62 100.84 7.9
9 12 111026.83 -4.44 101.37 8.5
9 13 33528.72 -2.13 99.63 7
9 28 133857.88 22.01 142.67 7.5
9 30 52334.07 -49.27 164.12 7.4



[edit on 10/8/2009 by Phage]

Great threads - amazing stuff happening. I was up last night monitoring the large Vanuatu activity when I noticed that I was feeling distinct wobbling through my chair, which seemed to be following my equake alerts on the really big ones - I live slap bang in the middle of the UK!

I noticed that there was another UK poster last night saying a similar thing.

Tonight I just saw another 6+ quake at Santa Cruz on equake, and yet more wobbling! The subtle wobbles seem to come back like waves and fade over a period of time.

I was in this house during a/the 4-5ish quake a year or two ago (quite unusual for the UK) and that was much more dramatic, accompanied by quite pronounced structural shaking and powerful noise, but I remember a similar sensation with the ebbing away of wobbles - there's another one!

Anyone else experiencing similar, any experts able to confirm/quash whether these sensations are possible to feel this far from a quake region?

Keep up all the good work.

reply to post by Phage


Okay, thanks for that.
As I suspected, those quakes are all pretty much localized events.
Certainly not major quakes 3,000 miles apart from one another.

But I suppose from your viewpoint you will simply say this doesn't matter.

And I say it does.
Major quakes on opposite sides of the Pacific, in clusters, within a week. Heck, at this point, I'm not even sure of how many there have been. I'm not even sure I am willing to figure it out in numbers. Other than to say there have been numerous... Far more spread than your example gives.

Edit to add - I was absolutely wrong on the other point I was trying to make before though. That being that strong quakes of such close proximity were unheard of. The data you just provided shows that much. But now this is more than just a "regional" event....

Unless we start calling the entire rim "regional." And if so, that is fine with me.
I predicted there would be more strong quakes, and the fates have sided with me on that one.



[edit on 8-10-2009 by JayinAR]

USGS only goes back this far in the current view for reference...

Latest Earthquakes M5.0+ in the World - Past 7 days
earthquake.usgs.gov...

I've taken out all other areas...just for a reference...

MAP 5.3 2009/10/08 21:37:21 -12.400 166.100 54.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 6.4 2009/10/08 21:16:12 -12.858 166.188 9.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.0 2009/10/08 19:42:46 -16.035 168.203 291.2 VANUATU
MAP 5.2 2009/10/08 18:10:51 -12.031 165.903 38.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/10/08 10:47:31 -12.520 165.302 88.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.4 2009/10/08 10:11:07 -11.234 165.849 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 6.5 2009/10/08 08:34:38 -12.276 166.448 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 6.8 2009/10/08 08:28:49 -13.298 165.951 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.1 2009/10/08 06:44:50 -12.449 166.280 45.8 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/10/08 06:07:14 -11.459 165.497 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/10/08 04:38:51 -12.981 166.069 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.3 2009/10/08 04:17:54 -13.031 165.983 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.2 2009/10/08 03:40:56 -12.787 165.792 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 6.6 2009/10/08 02:12:39 -11.650 166.170 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.8 2009/10/08 01:59:20 -11.923 165.892 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.1 2009/10/08 01:31:01 -13.308 166.440 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.4 2009/10/08 01:08:37 -12.802 166.242 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2009/10/08 00:22:05 -13.280 166.135 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.7 2009/10/07 23:48:53 -13.489 166.408 29.5 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/07 23:38:09 -16.639 -172.473 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 7.3 2009/10/07 23:13:49 -13.145 166.297 33.3 VANUATU
MAP 7.8 2009/10/07 22:18:26 -12.554 166.320 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 7.6 2009/10/07 22:03:16 -13.052 166.187 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 6.7 2009/10/07 21:41:15 4.043 122.584 582.8 CELEBES SEA
MAP 5.0 2009/10/07 15:48:33 -8.299 127.621 14.7 EAST TIMOR REGION
MAP 5.0 2009/10/07 08:59:06 -16.568 -172.612 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/10/06 09:33:38 -20.816 168.674 41.0 LOYALTY ISLANDS
MAP 5.6 2009/10/06 01:59:40 -4.523 -104.910 10.0 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE
MAP 5.0 2009/10/05 09:22:51 -16.280 -173.070 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.4 2009/10/04 17:51:54 -6.012 147.564 67.9 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.3 2009/10/04 17:09:55 -16.221 -173.451 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.4 2009/10/04 17:02:29 -15.120 -172.786 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.3 2009/10/04 14:43:15 -5.585 148.401 174.4 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 6.6 2009/10/04 10:58:01 6.721 123.480 630.5 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
MAP 5.4 2009/10/04 09:10:30 -16.247 -173.243 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.5 2009/10/04 03:36:00 -0.443 133.023 39.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 07:16:59 -16.881 -172.986 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.3 2009/10/02 22:38:45 -17.808 -172.590 44.3 TONGA REGION
MAP 5.1 2009/10/02 20:03:03 -17.157 -172.667 10.0 TONGA REGION
MAP 5.3 2009/10/02 15:53:57 -0.866 121.727 49.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
MAP 5.8 2009/10/02 15:47:14 -17.032 174.474 35.8 FIJI REGION
MAP 5.4 2009/10/02 12:08:32 -16.419 -172.679 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.4 2009/10/02 12:01:11 -15.363 -173.201 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.0 2009/10/02 11:09:34 -14.773 -173.438 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.3 2009/10/02 09:57:19 -6.113 151.415 47.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
MAP 5.1 2009/10/02 02:46:48 -16.732 -172.300 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.0 2009/10/02 02:23:14 -6.332 130.794 84.7 BANDA SEA
MAP 5.1 2009/10/02 01:55:07 -14.490 -173.371 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 6.1 2009/10/02 01:07:40 -16.327 -173.480 10.0 TONGA

The current ~trend~ is 3 to 1...Santa Cruz to Vanuatu...rinse and repeat? mostly...Santa Cruz should be next after 5.3M?

[edit on 10/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Thanks for that... Geeze, has it already been more than a week since the previous cluster of strong quakes?

Either way, in my eyes, the point still remains.

The Indonesian quakes and these latest ones...

But once again, I don't have too much of an interest in the events other than to note that I believe they are extraordinary. I mean, if I'm wrong, so be it. But nothing I have seen so far shakes me from that idea.

I actually think it is somewhat pointless to sift through tons of data to see if this is out of the ordinary. Why? Because when there is a major earthquake anywhere on the planet, we hear about it.

And lately, I've heard about a LOT of them. In rapid succession. More than at any other time in my life. At least in as much of my life as I can recall.

That makes the event extraordinary in my eyes and until someone presents something that actually negates that, I'll continue to maintain it.

Well I was close? LoL Should of said Samoa...DANG!

...cause 1 out of 3 ain't bad...


MAP 5.6 2009/10/08 23:35:51 -12.488 166.501 81.2 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.3 2009/10/08 22:43:33 -10.842 165.409 18.9 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.2 2009/10/08 22:32:56 -19.580 -178.007 598.2 FIJI REGION

No tellin' what's to come eh?

Like a Pinball Machine...

[edit on 10/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by curioustype
Great threads - amazing stuff happening. I was up last night monitoring the large Vanuatu activity when I noticed that I was feeling distinct wobbling through my chair, which seemed to be following my equake alerts on the really big ones - I live slap bang in the middle of the UK!

I noticed that there was another UK poster last night saying a similar thing.

Tonight I just saw another 6+ quake at Santa Cruz on equake, and yet more wobbling! The subtle wobbles seem to come back like waves and fade over a period of time.

I was in this house during a/the 4-5ish quake a year or two ago (quite unusual for the UK) and that was much more dramatic, accompanied by quite pronounced structural shaking and powerful noise, but I remember a similar sensation with the ebbing away of wobbles - there's another one!

Anyone else experiencing similar, any experts able to confirm/quash whether these sensations are possible to feel this far from a quake region?

Keep up all the good work.

im in norway and i know what your talking about , spent 4 years in northern cali, i know what quakes feel like , and latly at night when there s a large one anywere in the world i feel the ground move here often . not that other things move but my bed to me at least moves slightly and its hard to explain.

reply to post by JayinAR

I think that's the point. They have been happening for a long time but it isn't until fairly recently, with the advent of the internet, that most people have been made so aware of them. How often did people call USGS, " have there been any earthquakes in the past hour"? Now all you do is look at the website. You don't even have to do that. People on ATS do it for you!

Sure, we've always heard about the big ones that make the news. But now we hear about all the aftershocks, and the quakes that don't do much (like, apparently, the Vanuatu quake).

[edit on 10/8/2009 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage


I see your point, and it is noted.
I still don't see non-local "major" quakes occuring within the given time span on par with these recent quakes.

Of course, as you said, and I said previously, I'm not scouring the data bases for them. More power to you guys that have the patience to do so.

If I see such an occurence I will concede all points I have tried to make accordingly.

Seems stress is being relived along the Coastal Fault Zones...

Earthquake List for Map of S America Region
earthquake.usgs.gov...
earthquake.usgs.gov...

MAP 5.3 2009/10/09 18:11:39 -1.040 -77.866 34.0 ECUADOR
MAP 4.6 2009/10/09 00:44:49 -23.948 -66.726 203.2 JUJUY, ARGENTINA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/08 11:57:37 7.206 -82.006 57.9 SOUTH OF PANAMA
MAP 4.4 2009/10/08 07:23:43 16.709 -96.377 59.1 OAXACA, MEXICO

[edit on 10/9/2009 by Hx3_1963]

equake is having a shake party the past 20 minutes or so.

reply to post by mkross1983
Yep a few coming in tonight...

Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 2.5 or Greater in the United States and Adjacent Areas and Magnitude 4.5 or Greater in the Rest of the World - Last 7 days
earthquake.usgs.gov...

MAP 2.6 2009/10/10 00:32:17 31.732 -116.041 7.0 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 5.8 2009/10/09 22:49:58 -9.032 157.913 26.9 SOLOMON ISLANDS
MAP 3.9 2009/10/09 22:13:54 35.963 -114.546 10.9 ARIZONA
MAP 3.3 2009/10/09 21:48:04 52.201 -174.483 15.4 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
MAP 3.1 2009/10/09 21:10:27 19.165 -66.502 15.1 PUERTO RICO REGION
MAP 2.5 2009/10/09 20:47:18 39.602 -121.549 0.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.3 2009/10/09 20:18:18 -11.646 165.897 35.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 5.0 2009/10/09 19:41:34 -12.211 165.899 53.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAP 2.5 2009/10/09 19:28:09 36.355 -117.844 3.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

[edit on 10/9/2009 by Hx3_1963]