Imminent Yellowstone 'Supervolcano' Now 'Unlikely', page 2

reply to post by silo13

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not to be off topic but there are NO buffalo in yellowstone- they are bison which are an entirely different species. back on topic i believe something is going onthere that could be bad or maybe just nothing- but something to definitely watch out for- too hard to predict nature- watch your local news weather- only job i know of where you can be wrong 99% of the time and still keep your job or just give vague predictions so you are covered either way

reply to post by detachedindividual

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Lol I actually followed the whole thread and I do find the subject interesting. I still stand by my opinion and I'm sorry if that offends you in some way.

Originally posted by ryox82
reply to post by detachedindividual

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Lol I actually followed the whole thread and I do find the subject interesting. I still stand by my opinion and I'm sorry if that offends you in some way.

I am just a little miffed that people immediately assume scaremongering and deny all else.

I accept that most subjects here suffer a degree of sensationalizing, but the Yellowstone discussions didn't as far as I can see. The majority of it was well investigated and extremely detailed in scientific data. To suggest that it was somehow all "doom and gloom" BS as usual just shows that the thread and information wasn't actually followed.

reply to post by detachedindividual

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I see where your frustration comes from. There was plenty of data being analyzed I agree with that much. There are just so many variables with Yellowstone. It is such a complex system. The other problem is the length of time between eruptions. Its not something that has been able to be measured accuratley. We have an approx. Date that says we are overdue and that's about it.

Was this recent spat of activity odd? Yes. Instead of it being an impending super eruption isn't it just as likely that it is rising magma and hot water? The magma wouldn't have to be rising all the way to the surface to affect water temps and pressure. I hear its pretty hot stuff!!

There are too many questions and not enough answers yet to be able to make that judgment and I feel we need more time to try and see a larger trend

reply to post by detachedindividual

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Hey there! Got your u2u but unfortunately haven't posted enough to send one back. I do agree tho. I actually saw not too long ago that there was a big fuss about why the coordinates, when plugged into Google sky, pulled up stars with a blacked out section right at those coordinates. 2 more posts and I'll be u2u'ing you right back but didn't want you to think I was ignoring you.

reply to post by bigfoot1212

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not to be off topic but there are NO buffalo in Yellowstone- they are bison which are an entirely different species

Silly Me! I always get confused which species died out the last time Yellowstone erupted!
(Couldn't resist)!

All kidding aside it's good information to know.
Ya never can tell when it will come in handy.

Ok so I'm still poking at you but it's all in fun.

I'm just so glad every-single-living-thing is still romping bucking squirming slithering and flitting all around Yellowstone it just puts me in a great mood! (And I'm glad all the animals are ok too!)!



Thanks for your post!

*P*E*A*C*E*

Originally posted by silo13
Imminent Yellowstone 'Supervolcano' Now 'Unlikely'

The recent "swarm" of small earthquake tremors happening in Yellowstone National Park are not likely to be a sign of a pending "supervolcano" eruption as some fear, according to a top scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Dr. Jacob Lowenstern of the U.S. Geological Survey said Monday that the earthquake activity in Yellowstone most likely will continue for weeks, "and then will end without any other related activity."

I most surely hope these people are right!

You Hope?

This is not fact.. this is premonition. That scientist also relies on unlikely which is also not fact.

I'm confused why he's not stated what the swarms are from if they are monitoring it... why keep the "facts" hidden? So as not to allow us to use our own perception of what may be happening?

Scientists are only as useful until they are disproven.. keeping the "facts" hidden only allows speculation and control.

Due to lack of facts.. I'm keeping an eye on what's transpiring there regardless of what some "scientist" thinks I should believe.

It's not fear mongering.. but good old caution.. without this "warning" of what may transpire, I would not have known some precautions to take.

Earthquake Swarm at Yellowstone Supervolcano: Update

James Pethokoukis says:

So what is the latest with the ongoing earthquake swarm at the Yellowstone supervolcano caldera? Here is my just-completed email chat with Dr. Jacob Lowenstern of the U.S. Geological Survey, top scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory:

How would you characterize the recent level of seismic level? Terms like "swarm" are pretty alarming. How would place this level of activity in historical context to what the USGS/YVO have tracked before?

Lowenstern: Swarm refers to seismicity when there isn't a typical mainshock/aftershock sequence. In other words, the events are more similar in size. Swarms are very common at Yellowstone. This one is clearly bigger than normal, and is the largest since 1985. There were also some large swarms in the 1970s, but the seismic network was much cruder at that time and we weren't able to locate earthquakes as well.

Me: What might be the markers/indicators leading up to a major volcanic/seismic event? Do you think this is leading to a volcanic eruption of some sort? What does your gut tell you?

Lowenstern: The most likely "bad" things that could happen would be triggering of a larger earthquake or some sort of steam explosion set off beneath the lake. At this point, any kind of volcanic eruption is a long shot. That's why we haven't called for a volcano advisory. None of our other monitoring indicators show anything that is nearly so anomalous as the earthquakes. At this point, the most likely thing is that the swarm will continue, perhaps for weeks, and then will end without any other related activity.

Me: It is all or nothing? I mean, do we either get lots of small quakes leading to nothing vs. a supervolcano? Could there be grades of eruptions or events?

Lowenstern: There are LOTS of things in between. There have been 80 volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone since the last "supervolcano" eruption 640,000 years ago and hundreds of large steam explosions, some near the Lake. It is FAR more likely that we'd have a steam explosion or a small volcanic eruption than a supereruption. By the way, the last time a volcanic eruption occurred at Yellowstone was 70,000 years ago.

Me: So if we were leading up to a major event, what sorts of indicators might we expect to see? We haven't seen one in a long time.

Lowenstern: It is certainly an issue that the truly major events are not known on a human timescale. We've mostly witnessed the precursors to smaller eruptions. But before any kind of an eruption we'd expect a whole lot of change in the ground deformation as measured by GPS. Nothing has changed over the past week. We'd also expect larger earthquakes and a bunch of steam explosions before magma ever made it to the surface.


Me: What do you make of this comment from one of my readers: "It's not that there's lots of quakes or even that they're all within a mile or two of each other, the worrisome part is that they are all a few hundred yards apart from the surface down to 7.2 km defining a single chimney under high pressure causing radial fractures along its entire length. NPS says the magma chamber is as high as 8 km and if it is that close to the chimney reaching to 7.2 km, we may be in for an eruption. We need more info on this location and USGS should deploy the best seismic testing equipment in the Lake NOW."

Lowenstern: That is pretty fanciful. We've got a team of seismologists looking at the data. The swarm is over a 7 km length right now. None of the earthquakes are that big, so it may be that fluid pressure is moving around as rocks break and thus breaking new rocks. It's also important to realize that when your seismic stations are 10s of kms apart, you can't get good resolution on the depth. The best located earthquakes right now are shallower than 5 km, but greater than 3 kms. Most of the shallower reported depths are probably inaccurate.

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by Willbert

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You Hope?

This is not fact.. this is premonition. That scientist also relies on unlikely which is also not fact.

Hi Willburt

Of course I hope this man is correct.
And, he works for the United States Geological Survey - if he isn’t right then who is?
Yet because no one controls Mother Nature, even scientists, I choose to have Hope in the predictions of the one who’s not an alarmist, with the most credentials.

I'm confused why he's not stated what the swarms are from if they are monitoring it... why keep the "facts" hidden? So as not to allow us to use our own perception of what may be happening?

There's no *hidden* anything.
There’s so many scientists and people watching, recording and reporting on these earthquakes you can spin around and point a stick and you’ll find someone else with more facts.

Scientists are only as useful until they are disproven..

I wouldn’t tell a scientist that.

Due to lack of facts.. I'm keeping an eye on what's transpiring there regardless of what some "scientist" thinks I should believe.

There are no lack of *facts*.
There is a lack of someone to accurately align the facts we have and say with 100% accuracy what will happen, or not.
No one can do that.
And yes, it’s good to keep an eye on things regardless of what anyone tells you - in any situation needing caution - not just volcanoes.

It's not fear mongering.. but good old caution.. without this "warning" of what may transpire, I would not have known some precautions to take.

I never said it was fear mongering.

Regardless, what physical precautions can anyone take to protect yourself in the event of a *super volcano* going off?
I don’t think many.
But, there are always spiritual and emotional precautions to take, and those are all that matter in the end anyway.

So if this whole warm of quakes caused a swarm of people to get in touch with their belief system, tell someone close to them they love them, to not take each day for granted but as a gift - then it was all worth it wasn’t it!

*P*E*A*C*E*


[edit on 6-1-2009 by silo13]

reply to post by whaaa

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The US government dosen't have a very good track record in telling the citizens of this country the truth. Could this just be spin and disinfo to keep the rabble from going nutz?

Hi Waaa
Could be.
I'm glad it's not my call to make that decision.
I don't know what would be better - to tell - or not.
Those boots are too big for me to fill.

Would I want to be told?
Hell, I don't even know that!

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by whoshotJR

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damn I'm feeling even less safe now.
My own prediction for 2009! We have a higher chance of Yellowstone going boom then we do a an Obama assassination or them ruling he can't be potus.

WhoshotJR,

To quote you, "damn I'm even feeling less safe now"...



*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by whaaa

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Volcanism is very complex, like the weather, and pays absolutely no attention to what has happened in the past.
Volcanism and plate tectonics are related but volcanism is like the crazy brother in law that can blow up and cause havoc for the slightest provocation.
Mt. St. Helens had a swarm of small earthquakes before the deadly eruption. In that case it was just a warning not a release of geologic forces.
Mother nature never pays much attention to the hopes or prayers of man.

All in all my problem I have is I tend to agree with you.
But, there is still hope.
Thanks for your post.

*P*E*A*C*E*

reply to post by ryox82

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Hi Ryox82 - good to see you joining in!

I say there is nothing wrong with us looking at the data here, but don't get too wound up. Hell, if the thing really blows, we are toast anyways. Sit back, enjoy the show, and don't forget to just live without fear!

That's kind of what I meant in another post - I mean - what could we do anyway - we'd be *toast*.

*Live Without Fear*

Cant' get much better advice than that!

I hope you continue to post on ATS - your posts are most welcome and refreshing in the point of view.



*P*E*A*C*E*

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