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An analysis of the Democratic Primary in 2008

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posted on Jan, 1 2009 @ 02:09 PM
The race for the President was supposed to be decided by February 5th, 2008. There were some strong candidates this time around, and here is a look at some of them:

1. Governor Bill Richardson: A popular Democrat, he was always thinking of running for President. He also had hoped to be the alternative to Hillary Clinton. Unfortunately, Barack Obama came along and stole his thunder. He never really had a chance and would of done well any other time. It did not seem there was an organization, and when he withdrew, it was like he never ran. He also needed some type of message as to why he was running.
Lesson learned: Running for office when there are big gun names will get you nowhere. Also, have a good message when you get off the ground.

2. John Edwards: He never stopped campaigning in 2004, and lived in Iowa for the next three and a half years. He also kept the same old message when people wanted change. He never lived down he was a lawyer who seemed like an ambulance chaser. The expensive haircuts while he claimed to be in touch with the "little guy" was never forgotten. He actually did a bit better in Iowa, but he needed a win considering the time he lived there. He did get some sympathy for his wife's illness, but by staying in the race and not by her side during such a trying time lost many votes for him. His later admission of an affair would have been devastating had he of won the nomination. He was also the most liberal of the main candidates, and he was proud of it. His association with John Kerry did not help him either. In the end, the two bigger names kept him from taking the nomination, and that was a good thing.
Lessons learned: Running continuously for office makes a person seem desperate. Add the fact that the message was the same when people wanted change, and you see a doomed campaign from the start.

3. Hillary Clinton: The nomination was supposed to be sewn up by February 5th, 2008. What the Clinton campaign forgot was the appropriation of delegates in each state. This assured the campaign would run longer, and it would give many more states a voice in the campaign. A candidate could also sweep all the states, and claim victory. Hillary stayed out of Iowa because of the state's governor deciding to run. He pulled out, but Edwards was expected to win the state, as he was living there. Barack Obama saw that as his opportunity to get a surprise win, and started building up a very strong ground team. Hillary and staff also though about the larger states, and knew they would win them with no problem. They did not bother with the caucus and mid sized states. Sen Obama took advantage of those and the new math delegate rules set up for 2008. Win all the small states by large margins and do well enough in the big states to get the delegates. After Sen Obama won many of the states on Super Tuesday, another fatal flaw of Hillary's campaign became apparent: There was no game plan after February 5th. The campaign made many mistakes and even tried to claim to be the candidate of change. The staff didn't help with their infighting, and the negative advertisements backfired. Hillary did give a tough fight, but in the end, the mistakes and the idea of having the nomination in the bag prevented some needed strategy work.
Lesson learned: Do not assume it is "in the bag". The win by Sen Obama was a surprise to everyone but him

All the others never got off the ground, except a UFO question geared toward Dennis Kucinich, who had a tough re-election campaign for his House seat ahead of him.
A future thread will go more into detail about Hillary and Barack's campaigns.

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