Originally posted by maloy
And yes - Russian news confirm that the talks between Gazprom and Ukraine failed. Gazprom spokesman said that it is now decided that gas to Ukraine is to be cut off on Thursday. If European clients see their share of supplies drop, they have no one to blame but Ukraine.

Although I agree with you that they should pay their bill, I fully disagree with your argument that Ukraine is to blame if Europeans will see a decrease of supplies. European countries have a contract with Russia's Gazprom, not with Ukraine. Russia decided to transport through Ukraine, not the EU.

If Russia fails to supply, Russia is to blame and should be held accountable.

Originally posted by Mdv2
I fully disagree with your argument that Ukraine is to blame if Europeans will see a decrease of supplies. European countries have a contract with Russia's Gazprom, not with Ukraine. Russia decided to transport through Ukraine, not the EU.

I understand what you mean, and you may be correct. However the blame rests in the details of the contract. Technically Russia would be transfering all European countries' (except for Ukraine) gas to them in full. The problem occurs during transport, where Ukraine siphons off (read steals) others' supplies. The question is who officially owns the portion of the pipeline running through Ukraine where the gas is siphoned off. If it is Gazprom - then it is responsible for loss of supplies. If it is the Ukrainian company, then it is responsible under the contract.

Russian sources indicate that while Gazprom will officially "stop" supplying gas to Ukraine, the current net supplies will not be decreased as Gazprom knows that Ukraine will take a portion anyway. So there might not actually be a cut in supplies. Instead Gazprom will track how much Ukraine uses, and then bill them for it along with a contract violation fines.

Russia is highly concerned about relations with its European customers, so it will likely be pressured to continue supplies in full. In the end however Ukraine will have to pay for everything they stole one way or another.

Originally posted by Mdv2
If Russia fails to supply, Russia is to blame and should be held accountable.

Who is going to hold it accountable and how? It is not like Europeans have any alternative sources of energy for the winter, and there is little they can do to Russia just like there is little Russia can do to Ukraine. Currently it is Ukraine that is accountable for nonpayment of debts. How do you propose Russia deal with Ukraine's accountability?

[edit on 31-12-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by Mdv2
What a silly fear mongering again. May I give you a tip? Don't use the Iranian (state) press anymore as source. Ukraine officials have today arranged that Ukraine will pay 1 billion USD of its bill to Russia.

Anyhow, living in a country with the 2nd largest gas reserves in Europe, and the 17th largest in the world, I care little about all of this. Additionally, a new pipeline which is being built through the Baltic sea will avoid these Eastern European countries.

With all respect, what sources should I use then? Practically all sources are tainted in some way with various political slants and agendas, and I'm happy to read them all (which I do - in-fact I had never heard of presstv until joining ATS. I'm sure there are many more I need to be made aware of). I thought the point of ATS was to make aware, then digest and discuss with others - being able to bring in other views and resources to then 'hopefully' get a more 'broad' and 'accurate' viewpoint? Or did I get that wrong?

I see there have already been some intelligent responses quoting other news sources from people that have actually taken the time to go off and do their own research due to the OP. Again, each one of these needs looking at with 'caution' but in theory mix them all together and we hopefully have some truth....that's the gist anyway.

Originally posted by maloy

Originally posted by Mdv2
I fully disagree with your argument that Ukraine is to blame if Europeans will see a decrease of supplies. European countries have a contract with Russia's Gazprom, not with Ukraine. Russia decided to transport through Ukraine, not the EU.

I understand what you mean, and you may be correct. However the blame rests in the details of the contract. Technically Russia would be transfering all European countries' (except for Ukraine) gas to them in full. The problem occurs during transport, where Ukraine siphons off (read steals) others' supplies. The question is who officially owns the portion of the pipeline running through Ukraine where the gas is siphoned off. If it is Gazprom - then it is responsible for loss of supplies. If it is the Ukrainian company, then it is responsible under the contract.

Russian sources indicate that while Gazprom will officially "stop" supplying gas to Ukraine, the current net supplies will not be decreased as Gazprom knows that Ukraine will take a portion anyway. So there might not actually be a cut in supplies. Instead Gazprom will track how much Ukraine uses, and then bill them for it along with a contract violation fines.

Russia is highly concerned about relations with its European customers, so it will likely be pressured to continue supplies in full. In the end however Ukraine will have to pay for everything they stole one way or another.

Thanks for the explanation. Seems feasible, but since we don't know the contents of the contract, it seems hard to judge who is responsible then.

Originally posted by Mdv2
If Russia fails to supply, Russia is to blame and should be held accountable.

Who is going to hold it accountable and how? It is not like Europeans have any alternative sources of energy for the winter, and there is little they can do to Russia just like there is little Russia can do to Ukraine. Currently it is Ukraine that is accountable for nonpayment of debts. How do you propose Russia deal with Ukraine's accountability?

1- And Russia lacks the infrastructure to replace Europe with other potential customers willing to buy such huge volumes. With the current economic situation, Russia doesn't want to lose money unnecessarily.
2- Russia and the EU should hurry with the construction of Nord Stream and not deal with Ukraine. Personally, I'd love to see improved relations between Russia and Europe. I'm afraid that's not gonna happen with US puppet states such as Poland and Czech Republic.

Originally posted by Mdv2
Russia and the EU should hurry with the construction of Nord Stream and not deal with Ukraine. Personally, I'd love to see improved relations between Russia and Europe. I'm afraid that's not gonna happen with US puppet states such as Poland and Czech Republic.

Exactly. The Nord Stream project was pretty much a response to the previous gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. However the pipeline is still years from completion and it will no doubt run into delays, especially considering the current economic situation.


There may be a sooner solution - one that will take place in Ukraine. President Yuschenko is one of the main problems of this dispute, and his administration refuses to make an agreement with Gazprom and pay the debt. However he is on the way out, and has support of less than 7% of the population. His likely replacement is Timoshenko, who is more willing to negotiate with Russia and start paying the debt. In recent months Timoshenko and other Parliamentaries have been trying to push impeachment of Yuschenko. Maybe the current crisis will speed up this process, and as soon as Yuschenko is booted out Ukraine can come to terms with Russia.

MOSCOW — A year ago, Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, aspired to be the largest corporation in the world.

Today, Gazprom is deep in debt and negotiating a government bailout. Its market cap, the total value of all the company’s shares, has fallen 76 percent since the beginning of the year.Instead of becoming the world’s largest company, it has tumbled to 35th place. And while bailouts are increasingly common,none of Gazprom's big private sector competitors in the West is looking for one.

That Russia’s largest state-run energy company needs a bailout so soon after oil hit record highs last summer is a telling postscript to a turbulent period. Once the emblem of the pride and the menace of a resurgent Russia, Gazprom has become a symbol of this oil state’s rapid economic decline.

During the boom times, Gazprom and the other Russian state energy company, Rosneft, became vehicles for carrying out creeping renationalization.

As oil prices rose, so did their stocks. But rather than investing sufficiently in drilling and exploration, Russia’s president at the time, Vladimir V. Putin, used them to pursue his agenda of regaining public control over the oil fields, and much of private industry beyond.

As a result, by the time the downturn came, they entered the credit crisis deeply in debt and with a backlog of capital investment needs. (Under Mr. Putin, now the prime minister, Gazprom and Rosneft are so tightly controlled by the Kremlin that the companies are not run by mere government appointees, but directly by government ministers who sit on their boards.)

The Russian economy is in great trouble at the moment. The Russian stock exchange has lost approximately 70% of its original value since the war with Georgia of last August. The Ruble has hit an all-time low value against the Euro. According to Dutch nationals living in Russia since 1989, Russians are very afraid of another economic collapse similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union. For that reason, many people are currently spending their savings on luxury products such as tvs, fridges, etc.

The reason being the financial crisis originating from the US as well as the low oil price. Russia is mainly dependent on income from oil and gas exports and a significant amount of its large foreign reserves has already been used on bailouts. Often they have threatened to cut off the gas supply to Europe but never will do that for a long time since they lack the infrastructure to export such volumes anywhere else.




I for one am happy that Gazprom's position is currently being destabilized since they are becoming way too dominant.

Good news from your link:

"Usually we supply 390 million cubic metres per day, of which 300 million is transit gas for Europe. Today supplies are running at 300 million cubic metres. We continue supplying Europe in full," Reuters quoted him as saying.

Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz confirmed that supplies had dropped off steadily, and said it would start pumping gas from its reserves.

Ukraine says it has built up enough reserves to see it through the next few months.

Yes, it should mean Europe as a whole will not directly be affected.

Of course, this could be a way of Russia making sure the Ukraine reserves are depleted to make them more dependable on its supplier?

Either way, gas flows and talks will be held but tensions may be strained.

Originally posted by Tallsorts

Originally posted by MetatronCubensis
I'm thinking that Russia is either pissed about them wanting to put up the missile shield or they're just extorting more money.. or both.

There has been pressure on retail gas suppliers to lower prices here in Britain, and no doubt nobody but the end consumer wants lower prices.

It wouldn't surprise me if behind closed doors the British Illuminati placemen phoned Vladimir Putin and got him to squeeze us hard. After all, they're all crooks.

Never mind that it's estimated that a further 20,000 people are going to die from hypothermia in Britain this winter due to fuel price inflation. It's just another Illuminati tactic to reduce the population a bit, and put many of us ander pressure.

Nice, ain't it?

I agree, and it's nice to see that someone on this thread is looking outside the economic box and into what is really going on behind the scenes. This is going to play out again and again in the coming months and years... all you have to do is watch. We could get back to eden if we all changed our thinking, but um, I don't think our humanity has it in us.

you guys forgot that ukraine is getting gas for the lowest price in the world and they still didn't pay Gazprom even a single penny. Ukrainian president said on 29th of december that they paid it and guess what - he lied to the whole world. Today he said that they will pay it till the january 11th .

Last time when it happened EU had to pay their bill. Ukraine cut gas delivery to the Balkan today, and yeah it's illegal. They've been steeling gas from EU for too long and they don't want to pay even part of the bill when they have the lowest price on gas in the world.

So, yeah blame the Russians when they want their money back. They have billions of dollars of minus because of the Ukraine (they actually had one of the most succesfull years in 2008 but it was because of the oil prices and they will have a lot of trouble in 2009).

Ukraine is quite a conartist when the matter of concern is money. Prior to 2005 when they were buying gas from Russia for $50 per 1000 cubic meters, the rest of the Europe was paying around $250. So what did Ukraine do? It resold the gas Russia sold to it at $50 to Romania and other countries for over $200. So Ukraine was making a very sizeable profit on Russian gas. Today they also get their gas at far lower prices than other Europeans. I wouldn't be surprised if the same reselling takes place today.

You can be sure that someone in Ukraine is lining their pockets from this dispute, and manages to lay all blame on Russia. Looks like Ukraine is trying to wage its own PR war.


And Yuschenko says that Ukraine has already transfered a partial payment of $1.5 billion for Russian gas. However there is something shady about this as well. The transfer was made to RusUkr Energy Company which is a small shady intermediary somewhere in Western Europe. Russia cannot verify where the money is or when Gazprom will actually get it.