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Until the rains failed in Darfur, the region's pastoralists lived amicably with the settled farmers. But with the land crippled by a decades-long drought, the region was no longer able to support both. Farmers began to fence off their fields, and clashes broke out between sedentary and nomadic tribes.
So what caused the rains to fail? When climate scientists studied the drought, they discovered that rising temperatures in the tropical and southern oceans had combined with cooling in the North Atlantic to disrupt the African monsoons. The roots of the drying in Darfur lay in changes to the global climate.
Swiss Re, an insurer to insurance companies, keeps three climatologists on staff to try to predict such future damages. In a report released just before the 2004 season, the reinsurer predicted that another decade of global warming would cost insurers more than $30 billion in weather-related claims every year.
"It's not that climate change is out there in the future," he says. "It's already happening. And the future will probably look a bit like this."
In August 2007, an epidemic swept through Castiglione di Cervia, a small village in northern Italy. More than 100 of the town's 2,000 residents came down with high fever, rashes and crushing pain in their bones and joints. An unusually mild winter had allowed Asian tiger mosquitoes to start breeding early, and their population had soared. When an Italian tourist returned from India with chikungunya, a relative of dengue fever, the insects provided the perfect vector. According to officials at the World Health Organization (WHO), the epidemic was the first European outbreak of a tropical disease caused by climate change.
Climate change has accelerated the spread of dengue fever and other tropical maladies, such as malaria, borne by mosquitoes. The insect's larvae mature more rapidly when the water in which they grow is warm. And female mosquitoes digest blood faster and bite more frequently as the mercury rises.
In the 27 wine regions Jones examined, temperatures had risen on average 2.3 degrees F (1.3 degrees C), producing a corresponding increase in the strength of the wines; faster ripening resulted in more sugar for the yeast to ferment. Even more striking was the warming's impact on ratings. With very few exceptions, they rose dramatically. On average, a 1.8-degree F (1-degree C) rise in temperature yielded a boost of 13 rating points. The big winners were German wines, with leaps of more than 20 points, and those from the cooler regions of France.
climate change had warmed most regions to the point where quality was at or near its peak. As temperatures continue to rise, growers around the globe will begin to find that their fruit is ripening too fast. The best conditions for growing wine will spread north and uphill. Indeed, producers are already expanding into Holland, Belgium and even Denmark. In Spain they're moving into the Pyrenees. England probably has more land under wine cultivation than it did during its last heydaythe 12th century at the end of the Medieval Warm Period.
The first to feel the impact are the creatures of the sea that use calcium carbonate to form their shells and exoskeletons. The acidic (or actually less alkaline) water wears away at crabs, mollusks and sea snails. Coral reefs face a double whammy as the changing ocean chemistry adds to the stress of unusually warm water. Australia's Great Barrier Reef lost an estimated 10 percent of its coral to mass bleaching in 1998 and 2002.
we've added enough carbon to shift the pH of the world's waters from 8.2 to 8.1.
Last summer, the tiny Pacific island nation of Kiribati became the first country to declare that global warming is rendering its lands uninhabitable, asking for help in evacuating its population.
While Kiribati awaits word if any countries will open their doors for its 100,000 residents, the Maldives--similarly threatened, but richer in tourist dollars--is shopping for a new homeland. In November, the country's first democratically elected president announced he was establishing an investment fund in hopes of buying new land for the country's 300,000 citizens.
Island nations aren't the only ones watching the waves. A three-foot rise in sea level would flood one seventh of Bangladesh's territory, force the Netherlands to beef up its flood control, and threaten coastal cities around the world. And even before the top tourist destinations disappear underwater, they will have lost their luster: Higher and wilder waves mean increased erosion, fewer white, sandy beaches, and more rocky coves.
In richer countries the impact will more likely be political. Increased population flows are giving anti-immigrant groups an opportunity to couch their arguments in the language of the environment.In richer countries the impact will more likely be political. Increased population flows are giving anti-immigrant groups an opportunity to couch their arguments in the language of the environment.The Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, D.C., argues that people moving into the U.S. from the developing world are impeding the fight against climate change by producing four times as much carbon dioxide in their new homes as they would have in their native countries.
"Already, a large volume of south to north migration in the Americas is straining some states and is the subject of national debate," 11 retired U.S. admirals and generals wrote in a 2007 report for the Center for Naval Analyses, a national security think tank. "The migration is now largely driven by economics and political instability," the report says. "The rate of immigration from Mexico to the United States is likely to rise because the water situation in Mexico is already marginal and could worsen with less rainfall and more droughts. Increases in weather disasters, such as hurricanes elsewhere, will also stimulate migrations to the United States."
The London-based Christian Aid estimates that by 2050, floods, droughts and famine caused by climate change will have driven 250 million people from their homes--more than the 163 million people currently displaced by wars, famine or ecological disasters.
The melting of the Arctic has spurred a geopolitical race, as Russia, Norway, the U.S., Canada and Denmark press competing claims for the top of the world. But whereas the competition is in part driven by the promises of undiscovered metal, minerals and petroleum, the melting ice is already uncovering another valuable resource: the waves underneath it.
The multiyear sea ice of the Arctic ice cap is thick and resilient. As much as 26 feet (8 meters) thick and leached of salt, it can be as hard as concrete. In contrast, first-year ice is soft and pliable. Never more than 6.5 feet (1.82 meters) thick, it's much more easily broken by icebreakers or drill ships.
According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Alps have been warming at roughly three times the global average, and projections show more to come. Alpine glaciers are in retreat, and mountain plants are migrating upward in pursuit of cooler temperatures. As the snow line creeps up the slopes, the winter sports industry, which attracts 60 to 80 million tourists a year, is threatened.
the Alps have been warming at roughly three times the global average
In the Mount Elgon National Park in eastern Uganda, a Dutch nonprofit group was reforesting the park's perimeter, earning carbon credits for airline passengers looking to make up for their emissions, and reinvesting the revenues to plant more trees. It was a project meant to benefit everyone. The trees were pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, travelers were feeling less guilty, and Uganda was getting a bigger park. Yet that calculation didn't take into account the most vulnerable: the communities that once farmed the hills. Angry that their fields had been taken, they fought their expulsion with lawsuits and macheteseventually clearing many of the trees meant to capture carbon.
The trees were pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
It can be seen therefore that burning 7 billion tons of carbon from fossil fuels is now dumping 6 ppm per year of C02 into the atmosphere.
Today's level in say year 2,000=350 ppm
Increase at today's rate up to 2050 = 50 years x 3 ppm =150 ppm
ncrease from 2050 to 2100 assuming 25% growth
in fossil fuel use and the Amazon rainforest
ceasing to be a C02 sink = 50 years x 6 ppm = 300 ppm
Therefore total C02 in the atmosphere at 2100 = 800 ppm