Originally posted by jvz123
reply to post by Roald
Tectonic movement of plates are caused by friction and gravity.
In the absence of a volcano, yes.
Yellowstone is a big bubble of pressure being held in by layer upon layer of rock. As the pressure waxes and wanes, the rocks above grind together,
like (as Robin mentioned) the I-35 bridge collapse being caused by expanding and contracting over and over for decades. It can't help but weaken the
rock. That's been happening at Yellowstone for... well, since Neanderthals and Cro-Magnons started Doing It. Every little tiny quake is something
else loosening up or cracking, some part of that shield holding back the pressure, so it has to be tectonic plate grinding caused by magma pressure
(if not intrusions). The heat is slowly melting the ceiling away, too, thinning it out gradually over the eons. The eruptions over that enormous plume
are so regular because of all those factors. It wears away until one day, poof... it can't take anymore. Structural failure. It
is
inevitable... but it's not inevitable that we'll see harmonic tremors before it. You don't see those as a needle's piercing a balloon. Ol' Yellow
could easily pop without a single one. Nobody knows; it all depends on how fast it comes out once it begins.
There's also no way to know when it'll give way, not until either (a) it happens, or (2) the signs are so unmistakable that nobody will miss them.
There really is no reason to panic yet. At this point, it's just fireworks. There's probably lots of time before it turns into artillery. Probably.
But
nobody knows. Just keep remembering that. It can't be predicted, only watched for; to pretend anything else is self-delusional. If it goes
in our lifetimes, though, I'll be moderately surprised. There's still about five miles of rock sitting on it. That's pretty heavy. Heavy enough?
Who knows?
Nobody.
Most deaths are totally unexpected. Everything's fine, and then, not. Dying from Yellowstone's eventual eruption is exactly as predictable as being
taken out by a serial killer. Does anyone worry about those all the time? Or even prepare for them? How many ATS threads have over 500 pages dedicated
to people being hit by a bus, or falling off a building, or dying of cancer? I'm not sure what I'm trying to say, but... just stop worrying,
everyone. If it happens, it happens, just like everything else, and we'll try to let you know sometime beforehand..