Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by Hx3_1963


I've never been a big fan of the magnetic polar shift stuff as a thing to worry over. Yes I understand it happens in time, and has happened many times supposedly, according to sea floor testing. I just can't buy it as a creator of disasters.

So it flips, the Earth has endured it countless times, the problem is folks see the 'shifts' and presume/assume they happen all at once. On a geological scale it may seem sudden but in years... not so much.

M.


[edit on 24-1-2009 by Moshpet]

reply to post by Moshpet


Oh yeah I'm with ya on this...just wish I could see the big picture better...I know "A" pushes "B" pushes "C" ect but the west coast has a few more dynamics to it...JDF/Pac/Coco/NA...now if P & C are pushing up & in on NA, then, P is sliding up into JDF pushing it under NA de-stablizing NW american mountain ranges/fault zones? This would fit being as all this upward stress is showing at SoCal & Alaska?


[edit on 1/24/2009 by Hx3_1963]

www.geotimes.org...
www.yellowstonetreasures.com...
www.populistamerica.com...
pubs.usgs.gov...
www.aoreport.com...
www.coasttocoastam.com...

Narration: To help them plan and prepare for the impact of an impending disaster FEMA use a powerful computer model known as HAZUS.

Nancy Ward: HAZUS is a predictive modelling tool, what is does is give us a prediction of the overall impacts the disaster may have on homes, critical infrastructure, hospitals, roads

www.abc.net.au...


[edit on 25-1-2009 by dodadoom]

Originally posted by startx.jeff
reply to post by spinkyboo

 

Three yesterday under Lake Yellowstone greater than 1.0, with a couple more about 20 miles north of LKWY, one at 1.6, up close to where that 3.9 hit a couple weeks ago.

USGS EQ list centered on LKWY

The musicians are warming up, but the conductor hasn't taken the stage yet.

: ) It sure looks like that. I'm hoping the conductor has changed his mind, the musicians get tired of waiting, pack up and go home.

[edit on 24-1-2009 by spinkyboo]

It seems that there are more & more earthquakes happening near calderas throughout the world . Is this normal ?


World's Largest Calderas

Latest earthquakes in the world

reply to post by manotick
Thanks for the link. Good to have the info.

What follows is no criticism of yourself as after all, you’re just the messenger and I save my “bullets” for those who write the messages, not those who deliver them.

I have to admit that as soon as I see “overdue” used in relation to possible major quakes or volcanic events I can’t help rolling my eyes heavenwards, because most of the time, such statements come from journalists rather than scientists, and rely on averaging times for previous events. The fact is, this planet probably has little concern for our system of statistical analysis…and even less for journalists. The other point is that quite often, people don’t even get their facts straight. There are still millions who are living under the misguided belief that Yellowstone is “overdue” for a “big one” because the MSM and various bloggers and the like continue to propagate false information about its eruption intervals. Anyone who’s followed this thread knows the truth in this case, but frankly I think we (and others who’ve actually taken the time to get the facts) are in the minority and most people have been mislead.

This is another one of those cases.

The article starts off by saying:

Large earthquakes have rumbled along a southern section of the San Andreas fault more frequently than previously believed, suggesting that Southern California could be overdue for a strong temblor on the notorious fault line, a new study has found. … new research by UC Irvine scientists, to be published next week, found that major quakes occurred there roughly every 137 years over the last 700 years. Until now, scientists believed big quakes occurred along the fault roughly every 200 years.

(All quoted excerpts are from this article, originally posted on this thread by manotick)

Now here’s the rub: none of the scientists mentioned in the article actually say that a big quake is “overdue”, they only express concern. Yes, they admit that statistically, the odds of a major quake are higher, but that’s a lot different from saying one is overdue. The whole concept of something being “overdue” is fine when it’s applied to things that can be reasonably considered to be “due” in the first place, like trains, planes, and pregnancies. But the way journalists use “overdue” in relation to major natural events like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions gives many people the completely false impression that somehow, we are supposed to know exactly when these events “should” occur and if they don’t occur “on time”, then they’re “overdue”.

Okay, some might argue that I’m being picky about semantics, but frankly this is more than mere semantics. This is about efforts by the MSM (and others) to create a false belief and I’m not happy about it!

It doesn’t help when scientists make statements that are open to misinterpretation, though. Take the article in question. A little further along, after explaining how techniques to calculate the dates of previous quakes had been refined, it says:

They went back to her archive, and the redating effort, led by scholar Sinan Akciz, found that the four big earthquakes before the 1857 temblor probably occurred around 1310, 1393, 1585 and 1640.

"We were better able to constrain the dates and show that actually these five earthquakes were pretty evenly spaced," Ludwig said.

Pretty evenly spaced? Hmmm…

1310 to 1393 = 83 years.
1393 to 1585 = 192 years.
1585 to 1640 = 55 years.
1640 to 1857 = 217 years.

There are two ways of looking at this. With the shortest interval being 55 years and the longest 217 years, it’s not really reasonable from a purely statistical viewpoint to say that they’re “pretty evenly spaced”. Even considering the “average” interval of 137 years, the time periods between actual quakes deviated from it by -54, +45, -82 and +80 years, respectively.

Given the numbers involved, the average person probably wouldn’t call that “even” spacing, but would say that deviations running to plus or minus 80-odd years from an average of 137 years are highly significant.

However, we have to consider the other perspective, namely from the point of view of a scientist in this field. For example, if Ludwig had data for quakes in one region with intervals of (say) 120, 410, 1200, 70, 50 and 930 years, she’d probably say that no reasonable pattern of even spacing was discernible. But for her to say that the SoCal quakes are “pretty evenly spaced” is perfectly reasonable from her specialized scientific perspective. The problem is that journalists grab hold of statements like Ludwig’s to strengthen their proclamations that “a quake is overdue”.

The next comment is also interesting:

Because they are looking at only a handful of earthquakes, scientists can't be sure that the pattern will hold, Ludwig said. "But we know it increases the probability of an earthquake," she said. "There's not any way I can look at the data and be comforted by it."

Have to give her that one. Assuming that there will be other major quakes in that region, it looks likely that the next one might occur within a time frame from today to (say) 50 to 100 years from now. But I repeat, that’s a lot different from saying a quake is “overdue”.

I hope my point is clear. Especially in the MSM, any article that claims a quake/volcanic eruption is “overdue” needs to be studied very carefully.

Okay, I'll climb down off my hobby-horse now.

Mike

i know this is the whats going on at YS thread but , they just uped Redoubt to the next level as we know has been on yellow for the last month or so...


heres the link to the webicorders for Redoubt....


www.avo.alaska.edu...

this might be helpfull to when YS warning us when YS blows.

I don't know if this was posted or not...sorry if a duplicate...
YELLOWSTONE SEES BIG SURGE IN MICROQUAKES
emsnews2.wordpress.com...

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
I don't know if this was posted or not...sorry if a duplicate...
YELLOWSTONE SEES BIG SURGE IN MICROQUAKES
emsnews2.wordpress.com...

its the first that iv seen of this site , thank you

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Interesting site- the author is wrong in comparing Yellowstone to the basalt flood plain/mantle plume eruptions that caused the Siberian Traps 250 million years ago and the Deccan Traps in India 66 million years ago. Those were the only two extinction level event eruptions that we know about in geologic history. Yellowstone is comparable to the Toba volcano which eruption 73,000 years ago- still horrific but not comparable to a huge mantle plume eruption.

It's quiet at YS today it seems, (well thus far. )

I do wish they had a map of 'probable' distances to the magma chamber and where it is thinest at of the park... I'd be interested if it was thinnest under the lake or north of it.

M.

(Also I poked a friend email about the volcano in AK going to orange, not sure where he lives in AK but.... )

reply to post by rigel434


What I thought was interesting was the statement that as the NA plate moves SW it gets thinner, replacing mountainious terrain with plains type terrain, meaning less crust covering the future path...hhhmmm...and I agree about continent forming eruptions you speak of VS caldera eruptions.

[edit on 1/25/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Moshpet
reply to post by Hx3_1963

 

I've never been a big fan of the magnetic polar shift stuff as a thing to worry over. ...... I just can't buy it as a creator of disasters.

.....the problem is folks see the 'shifts' and presume/assume they happen all at once. On a geological scale it may seem sudden but in years... not so much.

I may be out of line with this, and it could be construed as off topic, however...The sun flips it's magnetic poles every 11 years - 2012 being the next flip. Depending on how the sun's poles are aligned with ours has an effect on the earth's protective layers. When it flips in 2012 we actually go into a period where the poles oppose each other, magnetically speaking, which makes things better for us.

With a shift in the Earth's polarity however it is a very different story.

First, I believe we are in a period where the Earth's magnetic field is collapsing. As the field collapses I understand that this affects the protective cloak of the Ionosphere, which at point zero vanishes. With the loss of the magnetosphere and the ionosphere Earth is unprotected and going outside would be the equivalent of stepping into a microwave oven.

One has to hope that this 'flip' is not on geological time scales as the effects upon humans plant and animals could be very disastrous. It is something to worry about, and in addition we have no idea what the effect is upon the planet in terms of stresses and internal turmoil since I am assuming that a shift would indicate a re-alignment of the internal core, so there is a possibility that it could affect the crust.

The last flip was around 70,000 years ago which happens to coincide with Toba for example. Not jumping to any conclusions but.... ??

[edit on 25/1/09 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan



I am a bit confused here. Perhaps you can clarify.

You say "The sun flips it's magnetic poles every 11 years - 2012 being the next flip." But then later you say, "The last flip was around 70,000 years ago which happens to coincide with Toba for example."

Are we talking about the same flip or two different flips?

Cheers

reply to post by manotick

With a shift in the Earth's polarity however it is a very different story.

Yes the 'last flip' was with reference to Earth. The flips are purported to average every 12,000 years but as we know you cannot apply statistics to this sort of thing.


[edit on 25/1/09 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Thanks

It is very confusing. Here is an article that says the last flip was 780,000 years ago and next one is predicted to occur in 1500 years. From what I read on the Web, for some flips there has been as much as 50 million years between them.

So yes, predicting is a fool's game!!

Why Earth's Magnetic Field Flip-Flops

www.usnews.com...

reply to post by PuterMan


I posted this link a long time ago and it refers to the "cracking" of the magnetic shield that allows solar plasma to get in.

news.nationalgeographic.com...

Right now the planet is enjoying a period of low activity called solar minimum. But particles have been building up inside the magnetosphere as the solar wind carries northward-facing field lines to Earth.

During the next solar cycle, the winds are expected to carry southward-facing field lines, which connect with the magnetosphere in such a way that they provide extra charge to any plasma inside the shield.

"You can sort of compare [the situation] to a gas stove," Raeder said.

"If you turn on the gas and you light it right away, nothing will happen—the gas stove will go on and there will be a flame.

"But if you turn on a gas stove and you don't do anything for a while and then you throw in a match, what will happen? It will say, Boom!"

And here's a little something about the flip-flops:

news.nationalgeographic.com...

reply to post by Moshpet

Are you making fun of our Redoubt? I was a young child the last time she blew - not quite YS but enough to darken things up and dump enough ash on our heads to close the town down for awhile. Tons of fun! (I'm buying masks and air vent filters in the morning.. If you look at the webicorders on AVO you can almost make out a pipe cleaner sig..

Good one !!! Hopefully that will end further questions as to DRILLING

Hi nothing new to tell except that there is as usual lately alot of earthquake activity around the ring of fire and some in europe.

Just wanted to say I am back to read some more news so keep it up mates.