Whats going on at yellowstone?, page 247

reply to post by justsomeboreddude

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No thats right you can't. I appologize to, for my interjectures, Botoh.
Remember, a thousand years is but a blip in the big scheme. However the warning signs are there anyhow. It could be tomorrow or in 3112. Agreed?
I conclude no man knows the hour, so I will shut up now.

"But the earthquakes Smith started tracking three decades ago—15,000 between 1973 and 1998, often in swarms—didn't altogether fit conventional notions of seismicity"
source:
news.nationalgeographic.com...

then we got 17720 earthquakes between 1998 and 2008 so thats less than 10 yrs compared to 25 yrs. are we seeing some pattern?
source 2:
www.quake.utah.edu...

reply to post by pantangele

Still going, though... The "pulses" or whatever they are. Like you and many others I've been trying to figure them out. The geyser (hydrothermal vent) idea sounds reasonable to a fair degree. However I've been monitoring the water discharge at the lake outlet into the Yellowstone river and it is fairly steady and doesn't seem to show correlations with these "pulses" being recorded. Of course, if it's a vent it might not have a great output and therefore wouldn't affect the lake's discharge all that much.

For the benefit of anyone coming in late, one of the other theories we looked at when things got quite crazy on the helicorders on Dec 29 and 31, was that perhaps the known "bulge" in the lake floor in the northern part of the lake was growing. That would account for an increase in lake discharge and also the fact that it's still trending upwards from its mean rate for this time of the year. (This is probably significant to whatever is happening in that lake.)

However, even if the lake's bulge/mound/dome is growing, that doesn't explain this new trace that has shown up. I first noticed this trace late on Jan 3, a few hours after the helicorders in Y/stone recorded the P-wave signal from the mag 5.9 quake in Afghanistan. The first example of this new trace I can make out, was at 23:24:30 (MT, Jan 04 at 06:24:30 am UTC), but it's a faint one. But as you say, they started to become clearer on Jan 4th (MT).

Since then, with their interval decreasing and period increasing, they've been worrying the heck out of me because they are reminiscent of what Dr Bernard Chouet calls "long period events". (He was the one who discovered their significance.)

LP events indicate a buildup of pressure, and if they start to increase in number then it's not a good sign. Dr Chouet studied them and was able to use these LP events to very precisely predict eruptions, and this enabled scientists to warn people and get them to safety before Popocatépetl had its biggest eruption in 1,000 years, back in Dec 2000:

BERNARD CHOUET: I told them what significance of long period events which they weren't aware of at the time.

NARRATOR: From then on they began to track Chouet's long period events.

DR CARLOS VALDES (National Centre for Prevention of Disasters, Mexico): It's like a red light flashing. When you see these signals something important is happening.

NARRATOR: And in December 2000 the long period events began to increase dramatically. Popocatépetl was pressurising.

BERNARD CHOUET: The volcano was singing its song. I mean actually this is a little like chirping if you want with these sustained waves from the long period event.

NARRATOR: The question was: when did the people need to be evacuated? Valdés knew the consequences of a false alarm. If people move from their homes and nothing happened then there would be no way they would move the next time the volcano threatened to erupt.

CARLOS VALDES: We feel so bad asking people to leave their homes and you have to keep your mind in the scientific work and say look, other volcanoes have done this, the potential of this volcano is that these particular villages could be in danger.

NARRATOR: If Valdés was to convince people to move out he had to predict exactly when the volcano was going to erupt. On 16th December the rate of Chouet's long period events escalated still further. The volcano couldn't continue at this rate for much longer.

BERNARD CHOUET: This is a siren song so to speak because it's telling you well, OK, I, I'm under pressure here, I'm going to blow at the top.

NARRATOR: Valdés had to make the decision.

CARLOS VALDES: We could clearly see that it would be between four and six in the afternoon of 18th.

NARRATOR: The order was given. Two thousand soldiers raced to the most vulnerable areas in an effort to get the people out in time. 30,000 people had to be evacuated in 24 hours. Popocatépetl blew, as predicted, on 18th December. It was the biggest eruption for a thousand years. Chouet's work had provided the key to the accurate prediction at Popocatépetl. Scientists had warned people of an impending eruption with confidence. No one was hurt in the eruption.

(From the BBC program Volcano Hell. Transcript available here.)

But -- are these traces LP events? They have been increasing in number relative to time, in a region that has seen a lot of quake activity and where there is a known "dome" on the lake bottom, that might be growing -- if the lake discharge data is of any relevance, which it appears to be.

The problem is we don't have a very clear picture of the waveforms. But enlarging some of the traces, it's possible to count the "peaks" and as best I can tell, these waves appear to have a frequency of about 0.6 to 0.8 cycles per second. Long period events have a frequency of 0.5 to 3 cycles/sec, so these events on the LKWY trace would fit on the basis of frequency.

If I wanted to scare-monger I'd say "the dome under the lake is pressurizing and will blow within [x] hours/days", but if I said such stuff I'd be doing so with no authority whatsoever, and even if I were an expert I couldn't make such a pronouncement without some good-quality waveforms to study in detail. I am only offering a line of conjecture, simply another perspective if you like, and I'd appreciate the thoughts of other members.

Oh, here's a link to an image and description of an LP even waveform.

Many thanks to all the troopers who've stuck it out for last several days. I really appreciate all the work, the graphs, links and so on. Amazing info.

Mike

Edit to fix fumble-fingers...

[edit on 6/1/09 by JustMike]

There is nothing happening at Yellowstone, it was a tiny fart and is over now. It might start again tomorrow or 2 years from now. Im predicting there wont be a super volcanic event in Yellowstone for 10,000 years at least.

Also there is no signs of snow melting like someone said.

Old faithful webcam:
www.nps.gov...

reply to post by JustMike

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I think the patterns showing in Mammoth Hot Springs show those events even more clearly.

have a look:

www.seis.utah.edu...

reply to post by JustMike

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That's excellent analysis. Thank you.

For argument sake, let's imagine these are those events... What goes into establishing a timeline? IF they were, and you WERE in a position of authority, how many days or weeks are we talking and how does one go about making that assessment?

reply to post by pantangele

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Yes, thanks Justmike! I vote we get Bernard on board!

reply to post by Waldy

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okidoki.....bye bye then. 10.000 years huh? wow couldn't you have said that like 200 pages back. Would have saved a lot of work. Thanks!!Nothing to see here. Move along to the next thread. We're just gonna finish up here and we'll see you there.......


....i think he's gone now. Please continue.

Great post JustMike....star for you...

[edit on 6/1/2009 by operation mindcrime]

Originally posted by Ponyboy_86
"But the earthquakes Smith started tracking three decades ago—15,000 between 1973 and 1998, often in swarms—didn't altogether fit conventional notions of seismicity"
source:
news.nationalgeographic.com...

then we got 17720 earthquakes between 1998 and 2008 so thats less than 10 yrs compared to 25 yrs. are we seeing some pattern?
source 2:
www.quake.utah.edu...

and then of course now its been say 500 earthquakes in one week(even though thats rough est) so thats 1182 according to source 2 plus 500 thats almost 2000 earthquakes in one year lets think, smith's tracking's avrg for one year would be 15000/25yrs 600 earthquakes a year then we go to 177020/10 yrs thats 1772 earthquakes a yr avrg and now 2008 (and 3 days of 2009) we got almost 2000 earthquakes this yr. so then if there is a code that will get extinct can someone break it down for us? like in that movie..

reply to post by operation mindcrime

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Ok maybe 9000 years plus...but seriously your tone suggests to me that you actually want this to happen. If it does there wont be a tomorrow.

I hadn't realized there were quakes in Washington...

earthquake.usgs.gov...

And it seems the volcano icon was removed from RSOE again. They left the icon over by the one in Russia however...

So any new news?

Originally posted by Mushussu
Hey Shirakawa,
Didn't we or someone chiming in give a chart on how much out put of water from various geysers, by the event or day?

It would be interesting to corrolate output with your chart

I've added a running average of water discharge at the outlet of lake Yellowstone. Data from this page.

It has been only very slightly increasing during the last few days.
Sorry for not being able to insert a real scale for this data, as I cannot add other vertical axes with my spreadsheet program. You can see its trend though.

Here's the updated chart:

Originally posted by Waldy
reply to post by operation mindcrime

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Ok maybe 9000 years plus...but seriously your tone suggests to me that you actually want this to happen. If it does there wont be a tomorrow.

Uhmmmm...no Waldy, you've got that all wrong. It's the fact that a couple of people have been really collecting data and are saying things based on their findings and now you come along and without any backup you claim

There is nothing happening at Yellowstone, it was a tiny fart and is over now. It might start again tomorrow or 2 years from now. Im predicting there wont be a super volcanic event in Yellowstone for 10,000 years at least.

Where do you get your info from??

Peace

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