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will soverign debt (gov bonds) collapse next

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posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 11:27 AM
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this is mostly to the economic mnds

but i have yet to read on-line a writer/economist/blogger who can combine precious economical insight and combine this with the global push that is going on to bring forth a world system of economy and gov't and further reduce soverignty of nation states.

I was figuring one problem that could be a candidate toward Prob/Reac/Solution could be soverign gov debt imploding eventually as a result of bankers trying to eventually waste there currency's in order to "reflate" the economy. Now i also believe that politicos and bankers are slow to get to the necessary steps to devalue the currency's aggressively (perhaps so they who hold cash now) can take a large advantage of those distressed owners who need to raise cash and so those with money can buy things at fire sale prices and then a few years down the road when the currency's are devalued the assets will be worth much more nominally (and they cut pay off any loans used to purchase assets with devalued currency). But back to Gov't bonds. It seems to me this may fit into an agenda where we need some sort of problem in order to shift world govt's to act in concert with each other. Seems to me most govt's react to panic and crisis's not to "well we may need to do this so that in 10 years we will avoid xyz" . And i was wondering if anyone with an economic mind thinks that Gov't bond prices collapsing (yields rising) as concerns of future devaluation grow would be the problem that could trigger govt debt defauts and weaken the sovergn nation states which may require a more global economic infrastructure to take hold which could then serve as a sustainable foundation to the socio economic system for some generations to come (likely with a fascist-green angle)

any thoughts?



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 12:01 PM
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Well with the markets flip flopping with all the sell offs; being bought up by big banking biz it may take a bit longer for it to come around. The case in point I would think would be the american banks buying up foriegn assets and solvent finanicial inst. with bail out monies etc.
In order to "do over" the world econ they would have to continue the consoladation for at least another month or kick things into high gear like right NOW or it isnt going to go well for them money wise. They may indeed end up loosing trillions in the whole scheme of things if they dont move faster. But with the public in such an uproar over it worldwide their plans are at a much slower pace. The Bonds are definately going to be an issue for them as they are sold in each country as a way for their financials to set aside monies for futture use in a safe place. Now if they "suddenly" turn and just try to set them aside or take them off they are going to get a big big backlash from the public whom they have told its a safe haven. My guess is that in order to set them aside permenatley they are going to have to devalue them to the point that no one feels they are safe havens anymore. Much like has been done with most of the market sectors.
The main point to remember in all of this is ; that every 50-75 years there is a consoladation of major wealth and business ownership. The best of the best take over the not so best and it all starts over from scratch. With the general public being the ones to take the brunt of the consoladation, whether it be in inflation for the short term( 3-5yrs) or loss of jobs as not so great companies go under or are bought up and sold off. The key is being able to get yourself through until it comes to an end and new companies emerge in the aftermath.
Right now in this stage there truely is no safe havens other than precious metals gems etc and that is only if they decide to continue to back world wealth with it. In reality this is most def. going to stay in effect due to the fact that the richest out there have their wealth in physical gold gems etc. It doesnt take a to educated of a guess to see that any new currency worldwide or not is going to be backed by gold and/or silver; point being most of the gold supply has been taken in and is being horded by the super rich. The current market prices for it also show a holding back of the value of it also. In the current finanical mess we are all in gold should logically be through the roof in value but as anyone can see it isnt. This one has me stumped other than it being held down until calls for payment come in I can find no reason for such a falacy.
With all this in consideration it leads one to believe that perhaps getting into metals and gems etc isnt such a bad idea; being that the super rich have their reserves in it. They arent going to let it go south forever. That alone would mean letting their own wealth go along with it. I just cant see that happening with all the greed and need to control everyhting. Further if you notice most of the super rich have already pulled from bonds and bills leaving only a small amount their to hold it up for now....



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 01:22 PM
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reply to post by xoxo stacie
 


The problem is its not the best of the best taking over other banks its bankrupt crappy ran banks getting bailout money to take over banks. Imagine how the banks who actually managed their money well feels. They were ready to come in and buy the assets of the big banks and become big banks themselves....you know....how America USED to do it.

The bonds market is in a big bubble and yes it will burst whether its one year or two its going to happen. Frankly I dont want it to happen because I havent been able to buy as much gold and silver as I would like yet so I hope we go another year. You will then see a massive precious metals bubble in which silver could hit $100.00 oz.



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 03:01 PM
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reply to post by cpdaman
 


Read this and think about it...

Warren Buffett offering life line to Bond insurers

This also offers some guidance...

Bonds to possibly lose AAA rating

This does not bode well for the bond market.



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 05:38 PM
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reply to post by cpdaman
 



Well CP you've seen my posts around here. Bonds WILL collapse. Especially when the investors find out that t-bills, for instance, are trading essentially backwards. The MSM said that this happens occasionally because the government needs money, what they don't tell you is that they need the money to control inflation, so they use their investors to pay for the government operations using a paper assent that is supposed to give returns. They are stealing money because they screwed up, when people find out how badly they screwed up our money will look like Zimbabwe's.

mid 2009 when the large majority of the long term t-bonds that China bought will come to maturity. When those get cashed out the creditors will close in and cut our credit down to BBB or lower, foreign investment in America will fly out. No capital, over-printing, and massive fraud and theft....



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 05:45 PM
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If you want to escape what will happen when inflation reaches a point of no return, BUY A HOUSE, and dump the rest of the cash into foreign currencies and lots of gold.

Those thing are inflation proof. Especially if you have a fixed rate mortgage. No matter how much our money inflates, you will still be paying that flat rate. Couldn't be a better investment right now...Gold, I don't care what the talking heads are saying, is where the money is. China, Russia, Iran and other middle east and asian countries are buying gold with their stocks of American dollars, because if they get caught with our paper in their vaults they will suffer greatly.


When inflation takes over the price of gold will shoot so high that it will become unaffordable to anyone who isn't rich or a government. Especially here in the US. Buy gold now while it's low, and buy currencies that will likely be backed by gold when we implode. If you're caught holding America dollars by mid-2009 YOU WILL SUFFER GREATLY.



posted on Dec, 25 2008 @ 09:17 PM
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Two points:

1) The US has always inflated their way out of deficits/debt so at this point it is only natural to think that some time in the future they would like to do this again. The *MASSIVE* amount of public debt being considered/already in place, is far from a US phenomina, it applies across many, many countries.

2) The problem I can't get my head around this time is now that the fed has run out of arrows, they have also been going out of the box by forcing down treasury yields through open purchase right out to the 30 year. On top of which I should mention my learned friend above pointing out the 90 t-bill actually went negative a short while ago, which sadly enough in a deflationary environment *STILL* makes sense.

So the question in my mind remains, *HOW* are our developed economies going to create this inflation?

My mind just isn't there yet.

Hoho JK



posted on Dec, 28 2008 @ 06:25 PM
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It's all in the process banks use to create money. They don't need to carry cash on hand to create money out of thin air. All they have to do is make a loan. And under existing laws, all that really entails is writing a check or electronically creating account surpluses for the borrowers. That is the process of leveraging. The inflation issue will creep up when they have to start printing money to satisfy the accounts of hundreds of failed banks in the near future. We're talking trillions in leveraged worth, with the bank only holding about 10% of what is required to satisfy all of their debt. The printers will start up again.


Add Obama's multi-trillion dollar spending plan, which at 0% FED interest, will essentially be one giant inflationary machine. Who do you think is going to fund this for us? Foreign investors? They're not going to bother. We eat while everyone else works. Someday this has to come to an end. I believe those days are just ahead of us. Merely around the corner, as they say.



posted on Dec, 29 2008 @ 01:54 AM
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reply to post by projectvxn
 

Buy a house? Banks can repossess those at will. It's no security.

Ref: www.abovetopsecret.com...

I'm trying to decide between Gold and Euros. Gold is an industrial metal and had dropped when production dropped. Europe is not doing well economically either, and they're printing bailout money just like the US. So, although they rose recently, neither looks solid.



posted on Dec, 29 2008 @ 09:42 AM
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I do think there will be a dislocation in the bond market similar to what happened in the 30's except this time it will be in sovereign debt. Unfortunately there isn't a safe way to try to make money off of it. Having put the bulk of my IRA into T's over a year ago, I'm definately looking for an exit given the flight to safety and consequent run-up in T's. Throw in the .govs recent and future "stimulus" I really wonder exactly how long Tres rates will be able to remain low. I'm looking at TLT (etf that tracks 20+ yr Tres) trading around 120!!! There's where the money went after it came out of stocks and commodities. When that bubble bursts it's going to be epic. Anyone with the fortitude to be betting against this and the luck to have the timing right is going to make some money. However, the money made will be little consolation to the probable socio-political chaos that will ensue. Once we see exactly how much further into debt the new administration throws us with "stimulus", and the reaction to it we might have an idea of when this bubble pops. I can't see it holding up past mid 2010 at any rate.

The actions of the new admin will be pivotal I believe. Obama's economic picks to date haven't left me warm and fuzzy. To many Clinton retreads who were around at the repeal of Glaas-Stegal, and too many people like Gietner who have already shown an inabillity to do anything but rob the taxpayers at the behest of the Big Banks and Brokers. Personally, I would have preferred the radical that the right tried to portray him as rather than just another typical politician, but with a better tan.



posted on Dec, 29 2008 @ 04:27 PM
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Originally posted by Dbriefed
reply to post by projectvxn
 

Buy a house? Banks can repossess those at will. It's no security.

Ref: www.abovetopsecret.com...

I'm trying to decide between Gold and Euros. Gold is an industrial metal and had dropped when production dropped. Europe is not doing well economically either, and they're printing bailout money just like the US. So, although they rose recently, neither looks solid.



No, they can't just take your house at will. Secondly, if they REALLY wanted to do something that stupid you could just present to the court the way in which a bank operates in the loan business and win the case based on breach of contract. If you only move the pen or the electronic blip to create money out of thin air then the bank is NOT putting up any asset to which, by law, must be laid on the line in order to move LEGAL currency. What the bank creates is NOT legal currency. Meaning REAL cash must be moved, not created in an account, as that only serves to leverage the bank. Lawsuits have been won this way.



posted on Jan, 2 2009 @ 08:54 PM
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well state and city budget shortfalls will surely make bigger headlines in 09

because they will either need to cut employment to save costs or raise taxes ..both lower the standard of living.

that really is the key to all the possibilities being pandered about, the standard of living for the "ave" american is going down and it will be for awhile......how low is the question......combine that with the perspective that in the biggest economic boom someone individually may feel like they are having an economic depression should they lose there job or something.....so it would seem that while the ave standard of living will go down, the opp's are there for many people to increase or maintain there's so long as they maintain there job.....and i guess that takes us back to investment decisions.

i think central bankers may be weary of hyperinflating and wasting away the dollar.....for many reasons......including the difficulty in doing so to the world reserve currency (we aren't zimbabwe) couple that with many economists who try to create the future expectation of inflation to spur economic and consumer spending and lending but the high degree of uncertainty in the world and economy's going forward would lead me to believe it is WISE TO BE LIQUID so as to take advantage of trends that may become more apparent as time winds on with an emphasis in the short term in Capital Preservation. Now is not the best tiime to get rich it would appear!!!

I think all currency's are being competitively devalued at the same time debt's are being defaulted on (deflationary forces) which makes reading the dollar's strength akin to viewing someone sinking into quiksand at the same time the top layer of sand is being removed around there neck and trying to figure out wether there condition is improving.

look else where beyond financial's to make money like collecting rent off a property or something. for those who are weary of the purchasing power of the dollar in the future, you may want to invest in some tangible form of a need, which will have great demand in the next few years.



posted on Jan, 3 2009 @ 01:20 AM
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Originally posted by cpdaman
well state and city budget shortfalls will surely make bigger headlines in 09



U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance

Didn't take long. One Trillion...and it's only Jan 2nd


Fiscal conservatives, if there are any left, will be sticking pins in their eyes when they see the 250BB allotment for unemployment benefits and food stamps extensions.



I think all currency's are being competitively devalued at the same time debt's are being defaulted on (deflationary forces).....


Competitive currency devalutation, a form of Beggar Thy Neighbor, can be interpreted as a reaction to deflation...but the policy isn't a 'deflationary force'. Indeed, even Mish identifies this anti-deflationary "tactic" to bolster his d thesis.


Does anyone want a strong currency?

Beggar Thy Neighbor tactics are a hallmark of deflationary times. When and how this madness ends no one knows. In the meantime, the ongoing competitive currency devaluations make a good fundamental case for owning gold. By Mike "Mish" Shedlock Full Text



[edit on 3-1-2009 by OBE1]



posted on Jan, 3 2009 @ 01:02 PM
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I think all currency's are being competitively devalued at the same time debt's are being defaulted on (deflationary forces) which makes reading the dollar's strength akin to viewing someone sinking into quiksand at the same time the top layer of sand is being removed around there neck and trying to figure out wether there condition is improving.


OBE1 i may have been a lil sloppy but i did indeed intend to convey that the defaults are deflationary (as is the unwinding of leverage) which is opposed to the inflationary forces of the competive devaluation, thus creating an opposite tug of war that is difficult to determine who is winning.

the role of the fed these days seems to be a vehicle to garner leverage and profits to the financial sector from the productive sector, unless when the financial sector finds it USEFUL/ NECESSARY to at least allow the majority to indirectly share in the joy of the illusionary weath of a asset price boom tied to home prices (which fills the financial coffers thru fees and debt extension) like a parasite likes to fill it's body with enough blood of the host). also the role of the financial system is to try and find a way to extend debt and gov'ts and military's are corrupt against to boost debt demand by going to war and insiders being paid off.

the intentions of the fed are for financial sector dominance and for growing there power and influence (over gov't) to shape laws in there favor which increases there ability to establish financial sector dominance in the economy, and pass this off thru there well taken care of media contacts who try to spin the mess any which way but true (and avoid blaming the Monetary system or the federal reserve) and bernanke's helicopters seem focused on wall street so that the firms can stay around long enough to buy up the collateral people hold up against unpayable debts (since the law of compounding interest in a fractional reserve system dictates that defaults will occur during times of credit contraction and i contend the fed's role is to enable/ maximize the opportunity's for a financial elite to take advantage of these "k -winters" as well as other seasons (asset booms) as well. backed by gov't laws and financial fox's in the public's regulatory hens to be complicit and allow the banking elties to consolidate it's power and buy up public asset for pennys on the dollar from indebted borrowers chasing empty materialistic dreams in a slower version of a dog chasing his tail until he finally collapses.

It would seem the fed is a tool used to not only gain power over govt's (ability to create money) and (indebt them) but to make the most benefit for the financiers during the inevitable cycles in fractional reserve banking at interest. The fed has to continually create new debts or the system implodes . one source for new debt demand is the military industrial complex to help launch new wars to extend debt issuance (when reckless fiancial alchemy is exhausted) and even when things get dire and they convince the public to give up some more rights for safety is when they throw the occasional bone at the public in the form of debt forgiveness only because this is occasionally required so that they can try to indebt us again (and grow more continual debt).and i think currently the fed is trying to manage the system so that we are steered into a world socialist gov't infrastructure where the freedoms may be less to match the lower standard of living that is coming about as america loses the super power status.



posted on Jan, 3 2009 @ 03:16 PM
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Hi CP. Interesting perspective. Sounds like you've been indulging Matthias Chang...he makes Jim Willie sound like a Keynesian choirboy


Not sure if this financial crises is the result of collusion by the shadow-people...or simply a recurrence of gross incompetence & greed, primarily at the federal level.

Please don't misunderstand, I enjoy a good conspiracy as much as the next guy..but..at this late stage in life, my most valuable asset is time. As a result, I tend to devote most of my focus and energy to tangibles. I accept what the tape has to offer...do my best to respond accordingly, and hope for better days ahead for each & every.

Keep up the good work.

GL


[edit on 3-1-2009 by OBE1]



posted on Jan, 3 2009 @ 05:26 PM
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Ya M. chaing isn't pulling any punches in his articles but he was not really a source for this thread.

You know i think one of the biggest detrements to the financially astute is that sometimes wether or not they see all the corruption and have unbiased openmindeness to be ABLE to recognize it's tools (media) is the fear of losing there income generating potential / REPUTATION by talking about such topics.

I realize all the convenient rationalizations people can come up with to dismiss these perspectives out of hand and i like that you seem someone at least OPEN obe1 and i admit i don't have enough clairity of info right now to be absolutely sure what is going on but it is a pretty impressive mind F*(K that i believe has been purportraded on the american people when the majority are afraid to consider the degree of corruption and collusion and class warfare being orchsestrated by the elite's in the world against the lower classes.......because they may be looked at as crazy....or called names although i have said for years now that WHEN the economic PAIN hit's the high notes like it is beginning to, the willingness for people to believe in the corruption will start to outweight the name calling from a diminishing mass of sheeple

in regard to long bonds i think the gov't purchases of long term debt stand ready to become reality wether or not a dislocation occurs, i think the fact that the fed mentioned they may be purchasing these .... shows keep long term rates low is a priority for them ( i think lol) I think what it also does is help KEEP faith in the FIAT money system. This is balanced with the trial balloon they floated about issuing there own debt independent of the treasury about two weeks ago, they will defend the fiat money system i believe and pull out all the stops to do so as well as give preferential treatment to the elite club of globalists.

i would hold short term treasury's for the time being for capital preservation as well as have a nice house in the country side should civil unrest and violence increase which it JUST MAY!

[edit on 3-1-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Jan, 3 2009 @ 06:18 PM
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Originally posted by cpdaman
Ya M. chaing isn't pulling any punches in his articles but he was not really a source for this thread.


I was just referring to the content of your previous post.


You know i think one of the biggest detrements to the financially astute is that sometimes wether or not they see all the corruption and have unbiased openmindeness to be ABLE to recognize it's tools (media) is the fear of losing there income generating potential / REPUTATION by talking about such topics.


Two or three times a year, I play monopoly with our space brothers...does that count




......because they may be looked at as crazy....or called names


Hey, I'm a old-time Gold-Bull.........remember?


I hope you continue to carry the torch cp.



posted on Feb, 21 2009 @ 04:19 AM
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reply to post by Dbriefed
 


Ok, also buy some decent guns and lots of ammo.

Anarchy is taking over.




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