Investor Heads Up: Gold To Fall Sharply Begining 10-Dec

I'm not a financial genius, so with that said let me tell you why I think that gold will fall sharply starting on December 10th.

I do like to keep abreast of the current financial situation of the world economy, and when I was perusing that other forum, I came upon this thread...Horrific gold 'dump': Is this guy for real?

Upon reading it, I had one of those rare flashes of clarity which I find all to scarce these days, and suddenly it all made perfect sense.

If you read the post, the guy says the IMF will "dump" about 4000 tonnes of gold beginning on Dec 10th. Why would they do such a thing?

My guess is that the ultra wealthy are wanting to buy into a really safe haven before the collapse of the dollar, but also, Comex wants to bring the price of gold down to help offset the dollar cost of non delivery defaults due to the ever increasing physical delivery requests being made on the commodities exchange. They would much rather pay only $400 an ounce verses the $770 current price.

This probably will have several other effects on the economy, one in which I think a sharp investor could make a tonne of money, but it also has several downsides as well.

The guy who is supposed to be a financial genius says the effect of all that gold being dumped all at once will drive the price down to around $450 an ounce.

Now, if I was a big time aire', I would buy all the gold I could get my hands on at that price. I would be aware that once that gold is all "bought up", and things in the depressed economy continue downward, that the price of gold will go ballistic...and I mean probably go above $1,200 an ounce sometime in 2009.

But, and this is the big caveat...smart investors in the know, will know the effect that will have on the value of the dollar, and thus all currencies around the world. It will only be a short window of opportunity that you will have to triple your money, because I think after the PTB realize what is happening because of the flock to gold and silver that they will "call" it in. And was it really a shock to them, or was it the plan all along?

The only way to bring the value of a fiat currency that people have lost faith in back up would be to remove the offending competition so to speak. And yet still, the only way to get rid of a huge deficit under an old antiquated system would be to come up with a new system, that has the balance tipped in favor of the designers.

So, if I was an aire' what I would do is hold until you know it can no longer be sustained, and then immediately sell, and put the money into other safe havens.

Now as to just what haven is safe you would need to think essential commodities. Because as I see it, that will eventually be the only real safe haven for wealth in this new era of the world.

Now that you mention it, an older woman invited my wife over to her house earlier this evening, apparently a woman had come up from toronto who sells gold for a living and was coming to this ladys house. She was selling gold jewlerly worth hunderds for 60 - 100 bucks, and were not talking about stolen goods here she runs a legit business. The whole neighborhood was practically there.

Are gold dealers maybe getting this same info? Was she trying to liquidate her stock now before they hit rock bottom prices?

It will be very interesting to see what happens on the tenth.

Well if the dollar declines even more, as well as other currency, what diff does it make to try to sell your gold and expect a high return when no one will be able to buy it in the first place???


Sounds to me more like marketing hype than anything.





Cheers!!!!

reply to post by TH3ON3
Interesting thread. Most of the gold was aquired by the US after WWII. Now, the Arabs are buying a lot. Ft. Knox supposedly has very little but receipts for 'loans' of the metal.
Gold has recently not gone up much, tho the other financials are all saying it should be a huge winning bet. Except one I recently read that stated their are over 10x the amount recent defaults, and evaporation of fiat money, that are about to disappear from other scams that are about to fall apart.
The world financial crisis has spurred a huge move INTO dollars, and even if some of the ME countries join Iran in demanding Euros for their oil, there is so much in dollars, that it will take YEARS to get out of dollars. It is just too big.
IF there is a 10x disappearance of fiat dollars, created by the banks, not the government, the federal govt will have to spend TRILLIONS to prevent a massive deflation. They don't want deflation, as it has historically been associated with recession/depression. So they have this huge windfall that they think they must spend quickly. It is our money, give it back!
At this crucial time in our history, we have no politicians, with the possible exception of Ron Paul, who are speaking of or acknowledging our biggest problems. They are ignoring them.
Noone speaks of eliminating the Federal Reserve.
Noone speaks of eliminating the massive counterfeiting of trillions by banks.
Noone speaks of cleaning up the massive corruption of the legal profession, or the entire 'Legal' system.
Noone speaks of halting the merger of the US with Mexico and Canada.
Noone speaks of the lies and distortions that are going on in our sciences and history books.
We are proving that even this country is incapable of self-rule.
Barack, if he lives, could very well be our last president.
Gold is good, but can you eat it? Or drink it? There is more to being prepared than just financial. Could be that there will be no infrastructure or even electrical systems to grow food, or get it to the market, even if you walked. One NEMP will throw America into the stone age. Over mid America, fired from a Muslim freighter offshore.
This coming year you are about to see a huge increase in natural disasters. Some say it is from our aligning with the galactic center of gravity, others that it is an incoming twin star. Me, I'll wait and see. And try to be as ready as I can.

Originally posted by Gregarious
reply to post by TH3ON3

 

The world financial crisis has spurred a huge move INTO dollars, and even if some of the ME countries join Iran in demanding Euros for their oil, there is so much in dollars, that it will take YEARS to get out of dollars. It is just too big.

What about the fact that a terrible "terrorist" attack could involve the economy in a very bad sudden downturn that will lead to martial law and inevitably the collapse of the dollar and subsequent fall of the other economies.

IF there is a 10x disappearance of fiat dollars, created by the banks, not the government, the federal govt will have to spend TRILLIONS to prevent a massive deflation. They don't want deflation, as it has historically been associated with recession/depression. So they have this huge windfall that they think they must spend quickly. It is our money, give it back!

It's not your money any longer.

Gold is good, but can you eat it? Or drink it? There is more to being prepared than just financial. Could be that there will be no infrastructure or even electrical systems to grow food, or get it to the market, even if you walked. One NEMP will throw America into the stone age. Over mid America, fired from a Muslim freighter offshore.
This coming year you are about to see a huge increase in natural disasters. Some say it is from our aligning with the galactic center of gravity, others that it is an incoming twin star. Me, I'll wait and see. And try to be as ready as I can.

Yes that is similar to my thinking, but also the huge deficit they are running up is never intended to be paid back. They know only a new financial system will rescue the world economy and also it will be one that will be accepted because of all the trouble in the world



[edit on 8-12-2008 by TH3ON3]

This is really great thread, you can't buy gold or silver at good price even if you can find it. Silver at ten dollars a ounce will cost you fifteen dollars so if it drops you lose, except for a hold position, it would have to go up 50% just to be even.
Was going to buy into futures into a hold position, they want you to leave it in Comex, but said I could come to New York and pick it up if wanted to.
But that's a big joke now because that's what a lot of people were going to do, and now they don't have the gold to deliever. They really only keep a small percent in Comex. I'm sure this has already been said, but to mess around with the furture's and not planning on a possible hold positon would be bad mistake. Now to go short it might be to late to get in, maybe. but if I had one contract of 100 ounces and it went to $450 I could make about 50 thousand for a 75hundred investment. then buy another 100 ounces and sit onit till it goes up to 3000.00 a ounce.
I know another guy who sold all his gold about 2 weeks ago, he said it was going to go down to $450, he sold like 3 kilos.

[edit on 9-12-2008 by googolplex]

The biggest whammy in that article...well, I should read the rest, but this is where I stopped:

On the IMF “dump” of gold he is forecasting for this week, Bolser says, “The IMF will say we need to take outperforming assets and put them in places where we can get the economy of the world going again. This is a replay of 1934, an artificial depression. The central banks will end up with the IMF’s gold.”

I have seen so many predictions lately and all were wrong. We have to wait only one day to see if the price of Gold really goes down. The only way the price of Gold will go down is when this economic crisis is over and investors are confident enough to sell their gold and go back on the stock market.

First thing that caught my attention:

.....he has been advocating shorting gold since it was at $413....

Full Text

Since $413? I smell sour grapes

That's about five years ago (not to mention, $600 from the March top). Mr. Bolser qualifies as a card carrying perma-bear.

“I am calling Dec. 10 as the center of probability for the IMFD selling 2,100 tonnes of Italian gold and another 1,100 tonnes from other countries. They will declare an emergency because the elites in charge want the gold,” Bolser says.

The U.S. Congress has to approve all IMF gold sales...they have been reluctant to do so in the past...and no word of this consideration in the press.

Also, Italy is a signatory to the extended Washington Agreement aka: Central Bank Gold Agreement which limits annual CB Gold sales to a maximum of 400 tonnes.

Gold - Will Central Banks Sell Out or are they Sold Out?
Dec 5 2008

The Central Bank of Italy has said it has no plans to sell gold, but the Finance Ministry of Italy is now debating the matter. We think this is political rhetoric at the moment and do not expect any sales to be forthcoming.

Full Text

Additionally, if the floor's about to fall-out this week...why would Comex commercial interest be positioned near net-long? If anybody would be in on the fix...it would be bullion banks.


[edit on 9-12-2008 by OBE1]

*checks calendar*
December 10th, 2008
*Checks gold market*
Notes that it is up over 4% today...

Seems like Michael Bolser is about as reliable a market analyst as Bowser from Sha-Na-Na.

This should be a lesson for those that sold before today.

OP, if it falls from any day going forward, don't attempt to say anything like "you see".

Adrian Douglas posts on Bill Murphy' Le Metropole Cafe today.

Bill,

GATA circulated a dispatch citing Thom Calandra’s interview with Mike Bolser in which Bolser claims that his analysis techniques can predict that the IMF will sell 3000 t of gold on Dec 10! That seems to fit more into the realms of astrology and clairvoyance than data analysis.

I think that this is so far-fetched as to be bordering on the ridiculous and I hardly think it is worth my time to refute but as investors are very skittish these days I thought I would take the time to say why this will not happen.

First and foremost I doubt Bolser has spoken to the IMF. Chris Powell (GATA), on the other hand has communicated with them and it appears that they don’t have any gold; it appears it is the same gold that is already counted by each country in their sovereign gold reserve.

Selling IMF gold requires congressional approval. That hasn’t been given.
If the Cartel was planning such a sale the traditional large shorts on TOCOM, and notably Goldman Sachs, would not have been desperately trying to get out of their short positions for the last 30 months. Below is a chart of the combined net short gold position of Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Goldman Sachs, and STDJ on the TOCOM. You can see how their total net short position had been declining since 2006 but they really rushed for the exits since July. I don’t think they would give up the trade of a lifetime on the short side that Bolser is proposing…that would mean that Bolser is simply wrong.

The COT shows the Large Commercials hold the smallest net short position in years. I make the same point as in point 3 above. This would not be the case if Bolser’s assertion had any merit.

If the IMF were to sell gold the Chinese would be immediate buyers. They have publicly stated they want to increase gold reserves to 3000t. News of an immediate taker of any gold sale would drive prices up not down.
Publicly announced Central Bank gold sales are NEVER done on the open market. The transaction is done between traders of the inner circle which usually are to square the books for gold sales that have already taken place in the physical market so it is never EXTRA supply. It only has value for jawboning the market lower. Nobody can jawbone the current gold market $350/oz lower! The physical market is on fire, they can jawbone all they want. Show us the metal!

The Washington Agreement quotas are not being filled showing a shortage of official gold. Any attempt to sell IMF gold (which is probably non-existent as it is double counted sovereign reserves) shows that the Cartel is out of ammo. Supply and demand deficits can not be met by idle threats. Real gold has to be sold.

In my opinion Bolser is in good company with Prechter because he also has been totally wrong on the gold market for the last 8 years.
Cheers
Adrian"

Jim Sinclair was a more to the point.

Dear Jim,

Can you comment on the rumor published on reliable sites that the IMF is going to pummel the gold market down to the $455 levels tomorrow at 12:22 PM?

CIGA Arlen

Dear Arlen,

That rumor is nothing more than RAVING BULL#!

Jim

Jsmineset.com

Well it looks so far like gold is trending way up. But, now if gold does start going way, way up and stocks keep tanking right along with the economy, and with the massive amounts of dollars being printed and "loaned" to Wall Street under TARP and now the auto bailout, wouldn't that destabilize the dollars value?

And to gain some control over the price of gold which many might start flocking to for a stable safe haven instead of the over spent dollar, couldn't the IMF take advantage and "flood" the market by selling the tonnes mentioned especially if the price goes up to say $1,200 an ounce? I think congress would also agree to let them sell it because it would help to strengthen the dollar if gold then dropped back down to manageable levels.

It's a win-win all the way around, for a while at least. So let's see if this guy was right but maybe just off in his timing.

reply to post by TH3ON3


Sorry, but I've grown really tierd of taking the wait and see approach with all the charlitan predictions and postulations ATS has gotten flooded with. Michael Bolser has now taken a seat alongside Blossom Goodchild, John Titor, and Sylvia Browne. Honestly, playing the "Well, maybe his timeframe was off, but his prediction could still be true" card could work for basically any prediction ever made. Like all of the end of the world/ mass extinction event predictions. Someday an astroid will hit Earth or the sun will supernova. One of those events is guaranteed to occur and the other could occur if the sun lasts long enough, either will wipe out mankind. I can say confidently that I predict one of these events will occur at 12:37 PM (Pacific time) on December 11th, 2008.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
I can say confidently that I predict one of these events will occur at 12:37 PM (Pacific time) on December 11th, 2008.

Oops... uh, this is awkward. It seems I was just a little bit off on my time frame, so please let's just wait and see if the prediction still happens eventually because I could still be right.

(I'm honestly not trying to be an ass. It's just that these incessant predictions that turn out to be horsecrap get old fast.)

reply to post by burdman30ott6


Well I meant within a few months or not more than a year. Sometimes the PTB don't like people telling them what they are gonna do and change plans to throw people off the truth trail.

But it does make sense that they would sell large amounts to get the economy going, raise capital, and bring gold down to stabilize not only the dollar but the stock markets.

That's odd. The last info I got from a reliable source was that there were more gold certificates issued than the supply can fill. Wouldn't that drive gold way UP? I smell something fishy here. This story just doesn't smell right.

reply to post by jtma508


See, that is the irony...if gold does rise to huge levels when physical can't be delivered, then the IMF would not only be tempted, but almost forced to sell all they have to bring some stabilization back into the economy. Gold going too high is not healthy for the worlds economies, currencies, or markets.

Hehe this guy has been telling people to short since $413.00. Dont listen to this fool gold and silver are going to be the only safe investment in this mess. I recommend you buy now because in one year youll see silver $50+ and gold $1500+

If you dont like that you can always put your money into T bills and pay the government to hold the money. Sigh...

[edit on 11-12-2008 by mybigunit]

The Chinese have trillions in their hands, and the oil sheiks also, that they are attempting to turn into gold, in their hands. Oh, and Russia. Usually, a lot of gold, and silver, is bought and sold, but is rarely actually delivered. Thus the 'naked shorts', where the crooks sell what they don't have. And now, with so many trying to take possession, they don't even have a good fraction of the metal. SO, the IMF tries to remedy that, by selling off (American?) gold, to fill their demands to take possession. I went into a coin shop yesterday, and asked about collectors uncirculated gold coins, and they only had a few circulated. There is apparently a lot less silver than gold, and it is bulkier, and harder to store. But it has a much better run at value, if you are a contrarian. These dollars that foreign govts hold, are fairly safe, because they are HUGE amounts. Nothing else to put them in. They are already trying with gold, but it is not even close to the amount of dollars they are holding. This would also encourage them to do what they can to make sure our economy doesn't destroy the value of their dollars. My head hurts!