*Serious Warnings* Alert * Earthquake* Postings* Please Read*

reply to post by Jenna


That's true.
But the poster believed it.
The poster brought it to our attention because they genuinely believe that it was going to occur.
They went on to further their "Research" in the hopes of bringing more credibility to the threat.
And now it's wrong.
And it's wonderful.

Originally posted by Jenna
People seem to be mistaking a prediction made by a webbot as being one made by a member of ATS. Apparently it's a pretty common mistake around here in the pursuit of being able to wear the "I told you so" banner.

It would be different if the OP or anyone else had come on here and said "I predict that there will be an earthquake between these dates". That isn't what happened. A webbot, a computer program, made the prediction and the OP just called everyone's attention to it. Two completely different things.

Yep. And I think it's a bit odd that so many people keep accusing others of having made a prediction here when no one did, and then while accusing others of making a prediction they like to make patronizing comments or just nonsense like "I told you so", or "mods close the thread" or whatever.

Really, are the people doing this even bothering to actually read the thread? I think not.

reply to post by Dewm0nster


What the OP said was:

Originally posted by questioningall
But as I see it - I would rather be a "fool" and put myself out there .........than to be a "fool" who sat back and did not say anything and let lives possibly be lost - due to being afraid of what others might think, and or I can be completely wrong about all of it.

They chose to post about it on the chance that the webbot's prediction was correct. So they believed it was possible and chose to call everyone's attention to it even if it proved wrong rather than sit back, not say anything, and then have it happen. They genuinely believed it was possible, so they said something.

They then went on to see if anyone had noticed animals acting differently since there has been some evidence that animals start behaving differently prior to an earthquake hitting. Sounds to me like they were doing research to see if the behavior of animals around the world indicated any potential earthquake activity.

Originally posted by Reddupo

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
I am letting peoples actions speak for themselves.

I said it would be wrong

.......I don't think you're quite understanding the concept of "speaks for itself". It doesn't take 100 pages of "I TOLD YOU IT WAS WRONG"/"IT'S GOING TO BE WRONG" for people to understand the prediction did not come true. A failure of prediction becomes instantly self evident.

Over 80 people starred a prediction that had no real reason to be correct- it was founded on random reports of animals acting strange. That is sad - very sad.

And a portion of those 80 people are now less trusting of WebBot and the predictions forum.

I dont think you quite understand what the concept means either, because you are constantly trying to shield people who make bad predictions.

I have not said anything negative about the OP, only that they are wrong, and it was pointed out that they would be wrong 25 pages ago. Don't like it? I don't really care. I'll continue doing it on this and every other thread where someone makes baseless predictions or otherwise supports a baseless prediction.

I might respond differently if someone made a educated guess based on research or scientific reasoning, but on ATS that day may never come.

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
I might respond differently if someone made a educated guess based on research or scientific reasoning, but on ATS that day may never come.

Then why do you spend so much time here if the members of this community are so far beneath you and your intellect, why waste your time???

Do you just come here to argue?

Just wondering.............

reply to post by Red Cloak


hmm i guess you didnt see the first post. [SNIP]



Removed personal attack

From the T&C's

2) Behavior: You will not behave in an abusive, hateful and/or racist manner, and will not harass, threaten, nor attack anyone.


[edit on 15/12/08 by masqua]

Originally posted by N. Tesla
reply to post by Red Cloak

 

hmm i guess you didnt see the first post. [SNIP]

No one here made a prediction that an earthquake would occur. You are simply stating something that is not true. Believe it or not some of us here do read the threads and do know that no one here predicted an earthquake would actually happen. Just because you can't seem to understand that no one here predicted an earthquake does not change the fact that no one did.

And to constantly state that someone did predict it, when no one did is certainly not going to change it either. Just post it 1,000 times if you want to that someone here predicted the earthquakes would happen, or post it a million times if you want. It will NOT change the reality that no one did make such a prediction.



Removed personal attack from quote

[edit on 15/12/08 by masqua]

I completely understand people’s desire (and in their minds, perhaps even the necessity) to, as one poster put it, “rub the OP’s nose” in the fact that their apparent prediction was totally incorrect and unfounded. I completely comprehend that, and I can even respect it despite disagreeing with it vehemently.

With that said, I feel compelled to point out some distinctions the OP made in his or her posts, including the most important distinction: the distinction between belief and knowledge.

Do I believe there will be 2 earthquakes next week - yes!

Do I know where they will be - NO

The OP acknowledges this distinction, and makes this distinction in his or her posts. In my opinion, this should be sufficient to articulate to readers that the OP comprehends the potential fallacy in their interpretation/prediction. Since the OP realizes this, and - based on their acknowledgement of that distinction - has from the beginning, I feel that certain people may (with respect) wish to ask themselves a simple question:

“Why am I really posting in this thread?”

It can’t be to inform the OP of what he or she has already demonstrated that they know (unless of course one simply doesn’t believe the OP, in which case it’s a personal interpretive issue.) It can’t be to dissuade others from making similar predictions, because anyone who has read the thread (and others like it) already knows as well as they ever will the ever-present potential for these things to be completely wrong. It can’t be to uphold the banner of science in the face of what they view as unscientific, because the OP never made any scientific claims and, indeed, distinguished between fact and belief clearly in his or her posts.

Much of the latter pages of this thread reads like a game of “dog pile on the person we just proved wrong.” It smacks of egotism and vindictiveness in my personal opinion. I sincerely apologize if this has offended anyone, as that is the furthest thing from my intention. I just think it’s all too easy to get caught up in trying to project one’s knowledge upon others in a competitive or caustic fashion, rather than a cooperative one.

Ask yourselves another question, if you will: “What is really served by expressing my opinion of the OP’s theory/belief in this particular way, when I could just as easily do so in a spirit of mutual enlightenment and education?” If you really wish to enlighten the OP somehow, why go about it in this way? What purpose does doing so really serve, other than to sate one’s ego?

Is it difficult for one making a prediction to admit that it may be, or is, wrong? Yes. It’s also difficult for those attacking it to admit that ego plays some role in what they’d like to think is a purely altruistic and “scientific” endeavor to discredit it, though.

I’ll close with these quotes from the OP for consideration, edited for space.

I am not trying to be an alarmist or anything - again I am willing to put myself out there - for absolute ridicule - because I am the FIRST ONE to hope I am wrong and all of this is nothing at all.

…

Let's all hope - nothing is going to happen - that is first - and maybe all of this is just happening for some other odd reason. I don't know. All I can do lay it out on the table and everyone make up their own mind - and I will be praying that I we did this experiment just for the fun of it.

…

I am satisfied with what I have done. I have felt compelled to do this, so I have done it, I am the first one to hope that it is all just in my and everyone elses imagination regarding the behavior going on.

…

I have not said an earthquake is an absolute in the New Madrid area.

…

… if all this animal behavior proves to be nothing - I will right now tell you - I will write a thread about my being COMPLETELY WRONG ON EVERYTHING!

But I also have a question.........

What if.....What if.......(I pray not) that something comes of this and there is an Earthquake, I won't ask for an apology from anyone, because I don't need that.

But..........what if something does happen - and EVEN ONLY ONE Life was saved due to this thread? Think about that

…

Do I believe there will be 2 earthquakes next week - yes!

Do I know where they will be - NO

…

Did I tell people to go running and screaming down the road there will be an earthquake at New Madrid - NO

Just think about it.

Thanks so much for all of your hard work & ignore the ignorant trolls out there! As a Cincinnati resident formerly from California I appreciate it immensely.

Here's a little info of my own, as I am a survivor of the 1990 Loma Prieta quake (the big one- 7.1- that hit near San Francisco).

Animals- especially horses- behaved quite weirdly just before it struck. Ponds disappeared & wells suddenly went dry. Strangest of all, was how two days before it hit, the entire area "felt" quite eerie- as if the land was holding its breath, waiting for something to happen. But- most important of all- in the month leading up to the quake, there were 100 LITTLE QUAKES- 3 or so every day, each one only .3- 1.1 or so on the Richter scale (not able to be felt by people- just machines). Geologists look for this as a prime indicator of a big quake getting ready to happen.

The U.S. Geological Survey website is a great place to look for all of the quakes recorded in the country, for as long as they've been recording them. Check out every fault they have graphed in the New Madrid system- you'll find out a lot.

I pray that what's coming up isn't Yellowstone. If those 3 calderas blow their stacks- & they're long overdue- it won't just be a disaster, it'll be the Apocalypse.

reply to post by questioningall

Exactly. A personal belief in a prediction made by someone else, or as in the case here, something else is NOT "making a prediction". It's strange how so many people here can't seem to grasp the difference.

[edit on 15-12-2008 by Red Cloak]

reply to post by Red Cloak


www.abovetopsecret.com...'


here you go big guy. check the op of that thread and of this thread. me has cookie now?

Well, nothing happened....thank God.

I think the web bot just flew away on the GFL spaceship that the illuminati stole from the anti-christ and elvis!!

reply to post by N. Tesla


You mean this part?

Originally posted by questioningall
The webbot has had these predictions of earthquakes hitting for 1 1/2 years in their language.

reply to post by Jenna


taken out of context. she meant to say that these earthquakes have been predicted an year and a hlaf a head meaning that they will be bigger then any others/

ok times up! where's this bloody earthquake!

well ok ... i'm not sure whether time is up in your country but it's 3 pm on the 16th here ...

lets flame questioningall ... i say we douse her in a nice bbq sauce and grill her slowly over the nearest active volcano ...

what say you lot???

reply to post by N. Tesla


No, I don't think I took it out of context. It clearly says the webbot has had these predictions. Don't see anything about questioningall making a prediction there.

Today being Dec. 1st - there are only 10 days left until the time frame of Dec. 10 -15th of 2 Huge (maybe biggest ever) Earthquakes to hit the U.S. and then somewhere else in the world.

The webbot has had these predictions of earthquakes hitting for 1 1/2 years in their language.

Considering the Bande Ache earthquake and tsunami was only in the language for 6 months ahead of time - and the webbot had said 300,000 would be killed or missing with it - they were exactly right.

Generally people type what they mean here, no need to assume that questioningall meant anything other than what they typed. Unless of course they come back to the thread and say your assumptions are correct.

Yes - did I believe the webbot in the prediction of the EQ's - yes.

They have gotten a huge precentage of their predictions on target - including the one happening now in the Northeast - of no electricity and schools opening up for shelters.

So - taking that belief (btw: webbot can be off a few days) - I truely believed there were going to be horrendous EQ's - one here in the U.S. and one somewhere else in the world.

Then - from my belief - because of webbot being correct in the past - I really wanted to research odd animal behavior - in the form of predicting where an EQ would happen.

Now - first - there IS odd animal behavior happening right now - that is a fact - along with some water issues.

What that is from - I can not say.

BUT I am THRILLED that NO EARTHQUAKE HAS HAPPENED!!

To say I am THRILLED is putting it mildly - because I would not even want to imagine or see a situation of what would happen if a HUGE one did happen. Especially at the New Madrid - the more I have read about that fault - the more I have realized how completely devastating it would be to have a quake anything like the 1811/1812 quakes happen.

The webbot got it WRONG - and I will have the first decent night's sleep in a week!

I have wondered if their language was misinterpeted to the fact that the huge scandal has come out that one person has defrauded people/corps/charities etc out of 50 billion. I have gone over that in my mind since it has happened during the same time frame as these predicted quakes.

Again - if anyone has read webbot's predictions before - they do get them right most of the time - but I AM HAPPY THEY GOT THIS WRONG!!

I still wonder why there is some animal things going on, but I will say - though this thread was about the animal behavior - but that research was linked to the belief the webbot had said there was going to be an EQ - and there was NOT - Thank God in the time frame - I will start relaxing.

I will not do another thread on this - because there is no reason.

I know I will now celebrate and rejoice in their wrong prediction.

I did learn a lot - I have to say in these threads and thank all those who participated in a postive way - by posting good information - that is always useful to have in preparing for any disaster.

I don't care who said it, as much as the fact it was wrong, as I think most knew it had to be. Perhaps a few more of these very specific events that don't occur, and people can stop with the idea that what is in essence, a giant database of info, which is more gloom and doom than not, cannot predict things like earthquakes... it's ludicrous.

Stock market trends? The original premise makes sense. It isn't predicting, so much as gathering all the news in the world about money and flucuations, and I believe to an extent, it could do this. I imagine there are other some other very specific things it could tracks trends for as well.

But not asteroids, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, or anything that is a random event.

Things happen all the time in the world. Every day, there is a war, a tornado, an earthquake, a plane crashing, a terrorist attack, or something else going on. It's not hard to predict "something" will happen, because of course, something will, almost guaranteed. It's like that fortune teller who tells you in the next 2 years, you'll meet someone tall, dark and handsome. In the next two years, anyone you meet who is above average height, with hair darker than blond, and not terribly ugly, will make you say "omg.. the fortune teller was RIGHT!"

I hope it predicts more of these very specific events, that you will know for a fact when it's wrong. Then perhaps people will stop funneling them money. Gee.... it's almost like a scam...

one question

do you denounce the webots as frauds or not questioningall?