Originally posted by Jenna
People seem to be mistaking a prediction made by a webbot as being one made by a member of ATS. Apparently it's a pretty common mistake around here in the pursuit of being able to wear the "I told you so" banner. It would be different if the OP or anyone else had come on here and said "I predict that there will be an earthquake between these dates". That isn't what happened. A webbot, a computer program, made the prediction and the OP just called everyone's attention to it. Two completely different things.

Yep. And I think it's a bit odd that so many people keep accusing others of having made a prediction here when no one did, and then while accusing others of making a prediction they like to make patronizing comments or just nonsense like "I told you so", or "mods close the thread" or whatever.

Really, are the people doing this even bothering to actually read the thread? I think not.

Originally posted by Reddupo

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
I am letting peoples actions speak for themselves.

I said it would be wrong

.......I don't think you're quite understanding the concept of "speaks for itself". It doesn't take 100 pages of "I TOLD YOU IT WAS WRONG"/"IT'S GOING TO BE WRONG" for people to understand the prediction did not come true. A failure of prediction becomes instantly self evident.

Over 80 people starred a prediction that had no real reason to be correct- it was founded on random reports of animals acting strange. That is sad - very sad.

And a portion of those 80 people are now less trusting of WebBot and the predictions forum.

I dont think you quite understand what the concept means either, because you are constantly trying to shield people who make bad predictions.

I have not said anything negative about the OP, only that they are wrong, and it was pointed out that they would be wrong 25 pages ago. Don't like it? I don't really care. I'll continue doing it on this and every other thread where someone makes baseless predictions or otherwise supports a baseless prediction.

I might respond differently if someone made a educated guess based on research or scientific reasoning, but on ATS that day may never come.

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
I might respond differently if someone made a educated guess based on research or scientific reasoning, but on ATS that day may never come.

Then why do you spend so much time here if the members of this community are so far beneath you and your intellect, why waste your time???

Do you just come here to argue?

Just wondering.............

I completely understand people’s desire (and in their minds, perhaps even the necessity) to, as one poster put it, “rub the OP’s nose” in the fact that their apparent prediction was totally incorrect and unfounded. I completely comprehend that, and I can even respect it despite disagreeing with it vehemently.

With that said, I feel compelled to point out some distinctions the OP made in his or her posts, including the most important distinction: the distinction between belief and knowledge.

Do I believe there will be 2 earthquakes next week - yes!

Do I know where they will be - NO

The OP acknowledges this distinction, and makes this distinction in his or her posts. In my opinion, this should be sufficient to articulate to readers that the OP comprehends the potential fallacy in their interpretation/prediction. Since the OP realizes this, and - based on their acknowledgement of that distinction - has from the beginning, I feel that certain people may (with respect) wish to ask themselves a simple question:

“Why am I really posting in this thread?”

It can’t be to inform the OP of what he or she has already demonstrated that they know (unless of course one simply doesn’t believe the OP, in which case it’s a personal interpretive issue.) It can’t be to dissuade others from making similar predictions, because anyone who has read the thread (and others like it) already knows as well as they ever will the ever-present potential for these things to be completely wrong. It can’t be to uphold the banner of science in the face of what they view as unscientific, because the OP never made any scientific claims and, indeed, distinguished between fact and belief clearly in his or her posts.

Much of the latter pages of this thread reads like a game of “dog pile on the person we just proved wrong.” It smacks of egotism and vindictiveness in my personal opinion. I sincerely apologize if this has offended anyone, as that is the furthest thing from my intention. I just think it’s all too easy to get caught up in trying to project one’s knowledge upon others in a competitive or caustic fashion, rather than a cooperative one.

Ask yourselves another question, if you will: “What is really served by expressing my opinion of the OP’s theory/belief in this particular way, when I could just as easily do so in a spirit of mutual enlightenment and education?” If you really wish to enlighten the OP somehow, why go about it in this way? What purpose does doing so really serve, other than to sate one’s ego?

Is it difficult for one making a prediction to admit that it may be, or is, wrong? Yes. It’s also difficult for those attacking it to admit that ego plays some role in what they’d like to think is a purely altruistic and “scientific” endeavor to discredit it, though.

I’ll close with these quotes from the OP for consideration, edited for space.

I am not trying to be an alarmist or anything - again I am willing to put myself out there - for absolute ridicule - because I am the FIRST ONE to hope I am wrong and all of this is nothing at all.

…

Let's all hope - nothing is going to happen - that is first - and maybe all of this is just happening for some other odd reason. I don't know. All I can do lay it out on the table and everyone make up their own mind - and I will be praying that I we did this experiment just for the fun of it.

…

I am satisfied with what I have done. I have felt compelled to do this, so I have done it, I am the first one to hope that it is all just in my and everyone elses imagination regarding the behavior going on.

…

I have not said an earthquake is an absolute in the New Madrid area.

…

… if all this animal behavior proves to be nothing - I will right now tell you - I will write a thread about my being COMPLETELY WRONG ON EVERYTHING!

But I also have a question.........

What if.....What if.......(I pray not) that something comes of this and there is an Earthquake, I won't ask for an apology from anyone, because I don't need that.

But..........what if something does happen - and EVEN ONLY ONE Life was saved due to this thread? Think about that

…

Do I believe there will be 2 earthquakes next week - yes!

Do I know where they will be - NO

…

Did I tell people to go running and screaming down the road there will be an earthquake at New Madrid - NO

Just think about it.

Exactly. A personal belief in a prediction made by someone else, or as in the case here, something else is NOT "making a prediction". It's strange how so many people here can't seem to grasp the difference.

[edit on 15-12-2008 by Red Cloak]

Well, nothing happened....thank God.

I think the web bot just flew away on the GFL spaceship that the illuminati stole from the anti-christ and elvis!!

ok times up! where's this bloody earthquake!

well ok ... i'm not sure whether time is up in your country but it's 3 pm on the 16th here ...

lets flame questioningall ... i say we douse her in a nice bbq sauce and grill her slowly over the nearest active volcano ...

what say you lot???

Yes - did I believe the webbot in the prediction of the EQ's - yes.

They have gotten a huge precentage of their predictions on target - including the one happening now in the Northeast - of no electricity and schools opening up for shelters.

So - taking that belief (btw: webbot can be off a few days) - I truely believed there were going to be horrendous EQ's - one here in the U.S. and one somewhere else in the world.

Then - from my belief - because of webbot being correct in the past - I really wanted to research odd animal behavior - in the form of predicting where an EQ would happen.

Now - first - there IS odd animal behavior happening right now - that is a fact - along with some water issues.

What that is from - I can not say.

BUT I am THRILLED that NO EARTHQUAKE HAS HAPPENED!!

To say I am THRILLED is putting it mildly - because I would not even want to imagine or see a situation of what would happen if a HUGE one did happen. Especially at the New Madrid - the more I have read about that fault - the more I have realized how completely devastating it would be to have a quake anything like the 1811/1812 quakes happen.

The webbot got it WRONG - and I will have the first decent night's sleep in a week!

I have wondered if their language was misinterpeted to the fact that the huge scandal has come out that one person has defrauded people/corps/charities etc out of 50 billion. I have gone over that in my mind since it has happened during the same time frame as these predicted quakes.

Again - if anyone has read webbot's predictions before - they do get them right most of the time - but I AM HAPPY THEY GOT THIS WRONG!!

I still wonder why there is some animal things going on, but I will say - though this thread was about the animal behavior - but that research was linked to the belief the webbot had said there was going to be an EQ - and there was NOT - Thank God in the time frame - I will start relaxing.

I will not do another thread on this - because there is no reason.

I know I will now celebrate and rejoice in their wrong prediction.

I did learn a lot - I have to say in these threads and thank all those who participated in a postive way - by posting good information - that is always useful to have in preparing for any disaster.

I don't care who said it, as much as the fact it was wrong, as I think most knew it had to be. Perhaps a few more of these very specific events that don't occur, and people can stop with the idea that what is in essence, a giant database of info, which is more gloom and doom than not, cannot predict things like earthquakes... it's ludicrous.

Stock market trends? The original premise makes sense. It isn't predicting, so much as gathering all the news in the world about money and flucuations, and I believe to an extent, it could do this. I imagine there are other some other very specific things it could tracks trends for as well.

But not asteroids, earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, or anything that is a random event.

Things happen all the time in the world. Every day, there is a war, a tornado, an earthquake, a plane crashing, a terrorist attack, or something else going on. It's not hard to predict "something" will happen, because of course, something will, almost guaranteed. It's like that fortune teller who tells you in the next 2 years, you'll meet someone tall, dark and handsome. In the next two years, anyone you meet who is above average height, with hair darker than blond, and not terribly ugly, will make you say "omg.. the fortune teller was RIGHT!"

I hope it predicts more of these very specific events, that you will know for a fact when it's wrong. Then perhaps people will stop funneling them money. Gee.... it's almost like a scam...

one question

do you denounce the webots as frauds or not questioningall?