*Serious Warnings* Alert * Earthquake* Postings* Please Read*

Originally posted by kattraxx

Originally posted by Red Cloak
I also posted this in the other earthquake thread.

OK, I was finally able to get a hold of the earthquake scientist Jim Berkland, the scientist that was able to accurately predict the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake before it happened. I asked him about this issue and everything being said about it.

I was told the following (and PLEASE note that I am NOT trying to make a prediction, nor scare anyone, I'm just stating what he said):

"Based on the nature of the supermoon phase of the period in and around December 12th, 2008, and the relationship of the heavenly bodies' gravitational pull towards the mainly affected fault zones on the Earth, I am able to estimate that there is an 85% probability that a magnitude 8 plus megaquake or a series of magnitude 8 plus megaquakes will strike in the New Madrid fault zone like happened previously in the years 1811-1812. This means that within a period of time from December 12th to roughly 2-3 weeks after that there is an 85% chance that a megaquake or a series of megaquakes will hit in the Arkansas/Missouri New Madrid fault zone area."

How did you manage to reach Jim Berkland on vacation? I contacted Cal Orey and she posted Jim's latest forecast on the url below.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As Jim Berkland 's biographer, good friend...I am going to say that this is a rumor. I do not believe he would have said an 8.0 quake would be the result this month. Look at his forecast. Once again, after posting the below post I will post Berkland's Dec. eq forecast. Also, he forecasts for 4 regions every month; he will make a MOSS prediction sometimes but I doubt that he forecasted such a quake/mag...He is gone till Dec. 19...so no way to know for sure. But I seriously doubt he'd predict a great quake in this manner. Oh, and working with him on The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes...he would never say "heavenly bodies'" or a "series of 8 plus megaquakes."

www.websitetoolbox.com...

I guess some people need this to detect sarcasm.

Originally posted by JustMike


The real reason is very simple. As the USGS says on its website in the "glossary" section:

Sometimes when depth is poorly constrained by available seismic data, the location program will set the depth at a fixed value. For example, 33 km is often used as a default depth for earthquakes determined to be shallow, but whose depth is not satisfactorily determined by the data, whereas default depths of 5 or 10 km are often used in mid-continental areas and on mid-ocean ridges since earthquakes in these areas are usually shallower than 33 km.

In other words, if the data is not complete/accurate enough for the program to determine the depth, then it is auto-posted as 5, 10 or 33 km -- depending on where the quake occurs.

That's all there is to it. For a confirmation of the fact that quakes do in reality occur at a wider and statistically more reasonable spread of depths, I'd refer anyone interested to this article produced by Lindsay Lowe and Prof. Mark Helper of the University of Texas (Austin), which not only confirms that USGS uses default depths, but includes histograms to show both the "default" numbers of quakes and the "real" situation. (You have to scroll down about half-way to reach the relevant histograms.) For those who are pushed for time, maybe, here are the two histograms that illustrate this matter of "unrealistic" versus "realistic" quake depths:

With default depths:

Default depths removed:

(Both images from A GIS Interpretation of the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone:Evidence for Segmentation and Topographic Effects by Lindsay A. Lowe and Prof. Mark Helper, University of Texas, Austin, 2005. Images reproduced for informational and educational purposes under fair-use provisions.)

As an aside to this, up to around ten days ago, nearly all quakes off the coast of Cal/PNW were posted at depths of 10 km. Now, the USGS is posting them at more precise depths (very few of which are near 10 km, in fact), which indicates that either the USGS has suddenly improved its location methodologies or else it has made an administrative decision to release more precise data to the public. The USGS is also now generally releasing wave-form data for quakes in the same region, which is something that has been distinctly lacking for several months. As this wave-form data is essential to determining quakes' magnitude and location, the USGS must have had it available, so the fact that this data is now being made available to the public means its release is a result of an administrative decision and not some form of technological advance.

I see. That makes perfect sense.

reply to post by Red Cloak


At the risk of looking silly:

How was that sarcasm? Apparently, either I'm sarcasm detecting impaired, or you need to improve your way of communicating.


I'm not trying to be rude, I truly don't understand, and if you could explain this, I'd really appreciate it

okay you naysayers....
check out the usgs (united states geological survey) hazard maps for 2008.
available as a download pdf here:

pubs.usgs.gov...

and I quote:

"the new madrid seismic zone in th ec3ntral U.S. was revised to include updated fault geometry and earth quake information. In addition , the model was adjusted to include the possibility of several large earthquakes taking place within a few years or less, similar to the earthquake sequence of 1811-1812."

that would be devastating for the country, eclipsing anything california could churn and probably one of the largest and realistic natural threats to the United States.

There were three 4.0 earthquakes around southern CA in the last 2 days. There was also an earthquake in eastern Tennessee yesterday.

reply to post by JustMike


Justmike-

Thanks for the explanation on all the 10km depth readings. That makes so much more sense. I don't know why I didn't think of a computer glitch when I first saw the data, but your explanation makes perfect sense!

Thanks.

reply to post by JustMike


Justmike-

Thanks for the explanation about why all the earthquakes were showing depths of 10km.

A computer glitch/programming error makes perfect sense....I feel totally stupid for not even considering that possibility.

Thanks!


[edit on 14-12-2008 by nikiano]

will this thread be closed after the 15th? or will the
we should have a new years skirmish. or atleast the day before or something like that.

so resoultions make you have a bad year?
OP just make another?

Originally posted by chickenshoes
reply to post by Red Cloak

 

At the risk of looking silly:

How was that sarcasm? Apparently, either I'm sarcasm detecting impaired, or you need to improve your way of communicating.


I'm not trying to be rude, I truly don't understand, and if you could explain this, I'd really appreciate it

This whole thread is full of people acting like scientific authorities.

Originally posted by N. Tesla
will this thread be closed after the 15th? or will the
we should have a new years skirmish. or atleast the day before or something like that.

As someone had said previously, the webbot run was to encompass all until Jan 5thish.. and the webbot has a tendency to be more range-finding rather than date specific.. so I say leave open until after Jan 5th.

reply to post by juniperberry


and i say your wrong. the op clearly said the dates are between the 10th and 15th of december. therefore this thread should be closed the 16th.

make a thread prolonging the date i will be happy to laugh again on the 6th of janurary and everyday in between

[edit on 12/14/2008 by N. Tesla]

reply to post by juniperberry

until Jan 5thish

Well why not leave it open till may 5thish or maybe september 5thish.....
Why is this every time with these predictions??

and the webbot has a tendency to be more range-finding rather than date specific..

Webbot: open to interpetation, tendency to be more range than date specific......?? Explain to me once more in very small words why we have to take this piece of software seriously??

no really....

reply to post by operation mindcrime


o dear god i couldnt agree with you any more

reply to post by operation mindcrime


o dear god i couldnt agree with you any more

Originally posted by N. Tesla
reply to post by juniperberry

 

and i say your wrong. the op clearly said the dates are between the 10th and 15th of december. therefore this thread should be closed the 16th.

make a thread prolonging the date i will be happy to laugh again on the 6th of janurary and everyday in between

[edit on 12/14/2008 by N. Tesla]

You are being unreasonable.

reply to post by Red Cloak


i think that was obvious many posts ago

OK I've been messing around with the Bible codes.............

I cannot isolate anything on these given webbot words for the Pacific Northwest or California. I have however found something that might match the New Madrid.

1. Bible code indicating earthquakes on New Madrid in years 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016

2. Bible code indicating the following words of first New Madrid earthquake (2009): (I found these searching for numerous regions within the webbot prediction's given south to north coordinates of 32-36 degrees)

Poverty
Point
Louisiana
Indianola
Mississippi
Hornersville
Missouri

3. Poverty Point, Louisiana is a REAL place and is located at 32 degrees and is near the Mississippi river. It is the site of numerous large mounds or "artificial mountains" which were built by Native Americans. The mounds or "artificial mountains" were believed to have been used primarily for ritual and festive purposes such as "dancing".

4. Indianola, Mississippi is a REAL place. It is a small town that lies at 33 degrees and is near the Mississippi river. It is in the Mississippi Delta plain region, which is fertile and is seeded for rice crops. In fact, it is at times the main area of rice crop yield in the delta region there.

5. Hornersville, Missouri is also a REAL place. A small town located at 36 degrees it is located in the center of the Missouri boot hill region, right next to the New Madrid, Missouri area, and in fact practically directly on top of the fault itself.


[edit on 14-12-2008 by Red Cloak]

The Bible codes are set up and is a hoax to control those that seek devine guidance. The codes are made up like you can design statistical results to say whatever you want. Its a hoax. God does not hide is word. He either does not tell what we cannot understand or he tells us what we need to know.

welp, it's the fifteenth.

how about we never, ever do this again.

N. Tesla clearly stated that you could open a new thread and on Jan 6th he'd laugh again. How is that being unreasonable? Being unreasonable would indicate wanting to keep something open longer than requested. Like this thread. It is clearly Dec 15th. Now I have kept my mouth shut and not jumped on the "This is Crap" band wagon to give it a chance. Start a new thread it isn't hard. Close this one because the dates were off. Or maybe the Earth doesn't go off human timetables, and therefore doesn't realize it is late to the dance. Start one that goes to Jan 5th then, so we can further ridicule this useless software. Oh and bible codes too, I would like to crucify those.