I wonder if the fast drop in the price of oil is simply us trying to put the squeeze on the Saudis to not even think about dropping the dollar. Watch soon they will start to make their climb back up after the holidays. That is if the Saudis decide to play nice. Just my opinion.

oil may be able to get down into the upper 20's.

hedge funds selling like mad caused most of the longs in the futures market to close out there positions

the dollar's rise as leveraged bets unwound and a demand for dollars (investors seeking the safety of treasury's) furthed funneled money out of oil. It is clearly laughable now that people were claiming it was standard supply and demand driving the price of oil, the global demand for oil may have fallen 5 percent as supply has been cut a percent or two and the price has fallen ......what 70 percent...

one thing to remember is to NOT LISTEN TO THE "FIRE ECONOMY" economists i.e Finance, Insurance, Real estate (think of them as the equivilant as greasy used car salesman only they sell debt ) these include the economists on the MSM, Cnbc (minus rick santelli most of the time) CNN, Fox news, WSJ, Barron's, and any other SHILLS who try to PIMP stock and bonds and paint the rosiest perspective people are willing to buy not beccause it is the most likely scenario, or even has a 10% chance, but because they can frame it based on associations with past conditions that may have huge fundamental differences with today, yet the listener has no idea, so it sounds believeable, and afterall they want to believe.............and what you get is the worst "advice" and the most limiting beliefs about the markets i.e Nobody has a crystal ball....you can't "time" the markets........the financial crisis is too difficult for even "us" to understand.......going forward buy and hold is the best strategy...........oh not to forget believing them (during a bear market and even the run up) will give you the best chance ..of burning a hole in your portfolio/wallet/401k/ nest egg,etc.

i could go on and on

[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

stander i would go with option "c" neither

i'm not sure if there is enough momentum left in the euro downward (which makes up 58% of the dollar index) to strengthen the dollar further which would help oil get down that low. But with the demand falling like it may continue to for a while, who knows how low we can go. I think 30-32 will be the low for 2009.

The best option for 100 would be a war with iran the cuts supply back, but that wouldn't be enough unless people also bet against the dollar in that situation. I'm not sure if that kind of 1-2 punch could gain momentum, (during a time when there is so much risk aversion in the mkts which is dollar positive) but a war in iran may trigger more oil longs and dollar shorts and could push it up.

bernanke wants a weaker dollar because that is a helping hand to fight deflation and bernanke mentioned the fed may being buying t-debt which is inflationary but on the other side Barack Said that we will not just print our way out of this so the jaw bowning is in effect.



[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

Oil Companies are scared sh!tless because of the new electric cars, thus they raised prices to get as much money as they can now. Its funny how there is no proof what so ever that we have an oil shortage. The whole "Iraq" war was funded by our spending money on oil. Now no one cares about the war...Obama is president, Bush is out, and oil drops to $43 a barrel. Hmmmm..????? After all the many president assasinated, why wasnt Bush???.....country was running perfectly fine without a president....then George Washington steps in and ruins it.