The Greatest Minds of ATS! A Tribute.

Originally posted by MischeviousElf
John Bull a very very important story, as wars are being fought over this commodity now and it controls and governs both regional and international politics around the world.

I think people must remember that this is the highest price for 20 years, however then it was a imposed price rise by the Arab nations, this is simply supply and demand and ability to provide it to the customers. This is only going in one direction, continuing up. Another winter in China and a harsh one in the States could push it over $75....Infact as I currently work in this area (finance) I will make a wager here. If Oil is not above $75 a barrel for US sweet crude by January 7th next year I will give the actual cost of a Barrel directly to the Mods, and maybe a vote could be undertaken for the most deserving Charity...anyone want to match it and let me choose my Favourite charity when im right?

Found it but a bit later than I thought:

9/08/2005




But that is spot price for Oil not sweet crude which was above $75, Dont now have the subscription for the data graphs anymore and rushing....

Will dig out some more from other members I remember too later.

John Bull had some some interesting threads indeed, and Gools to on this issue.

Kind Regards,

Elf.

[edit on 2-12-2008 by MischeviousElf]

The handwriting was on the wall and I bow to those on ATS who called it out. As I've begun to look at this subject more deeply myself it becomes quiet plain to see that there will be no easy fixes. So many sources ae pointing to a recovery in 2009 but somehow I don't think so. In the meantime I look forward to reading the post of ATS Seers.

you need to check my entire list of posts and threads,

then you can start worshipping my incredible mind

I'm sorry, but ANYONE who wanted to do their research could have seen this coming. ANYONE. You make it sound like the economy only goes into recession once every 100 years. We were in recession in 2001, the 80's/early 90's, part of the 70's and so on. Go look at graphs of our economy and how it works. You will see a trend. Sure maybe recession now is much worse than it was in 2001, but still you guys make it sound like this should not be happening.

Wow, a tribute to the greatest minds on ATS, yourself included?

What a narcissistic thread.

Here's another interesting word to wrap your great minds around: Hubris.

As far as that oil price graph...does that take into effect inflation/value of the dollar compared to the past and now. Or does that just just list the stated price at the time? In the late 60s people could buy a brand new car for 3000. Anyways, yeah oil will rebound and the only way America can take action against it, is demand for other new products that do not involve the use of oil. Not just including new cars, but also other goods. Even though something such as an electric car may be more expensive now that will drop in price once we start demanding and buy more. I almost like the idea of higher oil prices just because people seem to care more about the idea of completely ridding ourselves of oil. The best way to do this was in a book I was reading where some economists and top real estate tycoons said that by about 2025 people will start leaving the suburbs and flocking to the nice condos that will be in high demand in larger cities across the nation. This couldn't be any better for our nation if we really want to shed oil once and for all. Until then oil companies will squeeze every last penny out of you. The good news is the country's such as the U.A.E who are screwing us over now will not sustain themselves in the future. The Emirates are trying to build a big tourist hub to help and support themselves in the future, but it will backfire. A lot of experts have said that the price to maintain every crazy thing they are building in the future will be skyhigh and without oil to fund it, prices will rise and consumers will no longer afford the palm tree islands that they built for example.

[edit on 2-12-2008 by dreamingtree]

Yes, I recall back in the late summer, September time frame a thread stating that the US was not in a recession because the PTB and the MSM had said so.
This was back when Paulsen and McCaine for that matter were still reciting the same Jedi mantra of "The Economy is Still Fundamentally Strong"

I'd expressed my doubts responding that the GDP numbers were skewed as well as pointing out a website (Shadowstats.com) of an economist who could prove the point in more detail only to be discredited by those believers in the MSM Goldilocks economic story.

As they say..."You can lead a horse to water..."

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Jeffwane and Gools, as well as Infinite, Marge, Archyn (sumthin like that) and OBE1 as well as many others.

CANNOT forget Relentless, queen of the Meltdown Forum.

Assuming Archyn is me, thanks for the nod.


This is a great thread, Rockpuck - thank you for doing all that research! Aside from the prescient observations here far ahead of the curve, one thing that's always amazed me about the money geeks on ATS is the varied scope of "expertise." You've got people who know the stock markets, you've got people who understand commodities, you've got people who prefer macroeconomics, and so on. When you put all those minds together, some pretty amazing discussions happen!

Ageless non-pooping kitten cannons FTW! Seldom have I laughed so hard at such a fictional concept. Hail Plucky

Just giving you the credit due on this thread Rock, keep up the good work.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Image of German Woman burning paper money for fuel; it says it all.

www.bitsofnews.com...

Only when the last tree has died and the last river been poisoned and the last fish been caught will we realise we cannot eat money.
-don't remember

I don't have anything to say other than Bravo! I have no leg to stand on when it comes to the economy, I barely passed my honors economics class, so the fact that so many of you predicted these things accurately amazes me to no end.

Maybe if the gov't officials monitoring this website actually paid attention to some of things being said here...we wouldn't be in such a s**t hole!

Seriously though, great job. S&F from me!

-JR

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Recession? Depression? Get real!

Irrational markets? Sign of the times I say..

Truthwithin (I don't think he meant it!)


Only downside.. if current predictions from the ATS Economic inclined hold true, we could be in for a very hard time, as a country and a people.

[edit on 12/1/2008 by Rockpuck]

I know I have posted this before on other forums, but it is
very relevant and I post it as a warning as I want ppl to get
ready for what is coming.

You can call me names, and whine and complain because I am
trying to help ppl, but save it.

This is what is coming and it will dwarf the housing and credit crisis.

The derivatives collapse:

100's of Trillions in derivatives set to tank

They have been doing a shell game of hiding the bad debt on the
OTC market to "cook the books" with "creative accounting" just
like enron had its 700+ shell corps in the caymans the OTC
which is unregulated and unlisted is being used to the same effect.

When the house of cards collapses it will be enormous.

I have no idea when it will pop, but even the mainstream media
has started talking about it.

Marketwatch warnings on derivatives

So it is coming and their hiding of bad debt as derivatives is
starting to unwind at a faster and faster pace.

Good Luck to you all !



[edit on 2-12-2008 by Ex_MislTech]

reply to post by Rockpuck


to be honest, I was a naysayer last year.. but MOSTLY because of the comments that followed these predictions with "get yer guns and spare toilet paper" and "start hoarding food" talk.

It was 95% fear mongering intermingled with gems of information.
I got sick to my stomach reading the comments so .. perhaps that is why sometimes things are not taken so seriously or outright dismissed?

People seemed so gung ho and hell bent on telling us that we are all gonna die that it just gets sickening and it gets dismissed out of hand.

at least, thats how it is for me.

WOW!!! A Thread about me? Awwww thanks guys!!!

I read all the posts and you are all very smart it would seem,at least as fare as you all are concerened,but where are the solutions?

What good is knowing whats going to happen if you just become a part of it and have no idea what to do once it happens?

BY Mischevious Elf in AUGUST 2005!

The real effects of this situation which really has long been coming to a Head has been offset so you may feel comforted by the rise in the dow recently…but it’s a hall of mirrors and propped up by the recent Housing Market Booms in both the UK and the US everyone has nearly refinanced their homes to the max, using the funds to keep the economy going by buying new cars etc. This has now peaked in the UK… however next year when the American real estate Prices peak too after summer/spring, oil is at ?? maybe $100 a barrel…. Everythings more expensive and scarce due to oil price and lack of. Well do you really believe that the raes will be as low as they have been in the US and the UK? Nope…they wont…in addition lenders may be forced to call in their loans if there is a Real Big Crash…read the smallprint on your Credit agreements and Mortgages Guys, oh

Need I say more, thanks for mentioning me Rock lol

Bows with other Genius's who were late developer's.

Kind regards,

Elf.
Here

reply to post by MischeviousElf


Man Elf you are such a STUD!!!!! nice predictions Ill give you a pitty star hehe. Im telling you if the great minds of ATS ALL work together we can all make money together

I would imagine any insider who worked at these various institutions and saw the parallels with Enron would have figured this out besides that it seems to be cyclical as if self correcting since 1929?

There was mention of september and october by someone here also. Goodbye 401k. My broker convinced me otherwise. Now I can't even afford to take the money out to have him killed. I'm sorta counting on hearing about it happening anyway.

reply to post by MischeviousElf


Interesting chart of the crude oil price in dollar. The curve seems pretty stable until the mid seventies and then the price began to rise. USA abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Is there any correlation to this?