A year ago or two most scientists would have said sudden climate change is just another "new age scare tactic. It doesn't really happen, and only
new agers believe in it." Just a couple of scientists would have said "off record" that sudden climate change have happened in the past and will
most likely happen in the future.
It has only been recently that scientists are saying that sudden climate change is not only possible, but is the most likely scenario to occur in our
future. More than that, most scientists agree that extreme weather changes in our not so distant future are a worse threat than terrorism.
World Bank, Pentagon: global warming red alert
Weather of mass destruction bigger threat than terrorism
Sun 22 February 2004
UNITED STATES/Washington, DC
A world thrown into turmoil by drought, floods, typhoons. Whole countries rendered uninhabitable. The political capital of the Netherlands submerged.
The borders of the US and Australia patrolled by armies firing into waves of starving boat people desperate to find a new home. Fishing boats armed
with cannon to drive off competitors. Demands for access to water and farmland backed up with nuclear weapons. Sound like the ravings of doom-saying
environmental extremists? It's actually from a report commissioned by the Pentagon on how to ready America for the coming climate Armageddon.
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What is it that is making the weather so crazy lately, and is it a sign of things to come? Is the weather going to get worse?
Some scientists believe now that the Earth goes through sudden climate changes on her own, but it could also be true that human activity may hasten,
and worsen the effects of climate change. There are scientists that would say its only a natural occurrance, while others concur with the theory that
human intervention can hasten and worsen sudden climate change.
No matter in which side of the debate they find themselves, they are all reaching the same conclusion.
Sudden climate change is real and it seems we are in one already, althou they don't know how long before the boat tips over and sinks. It is
possible that we have 20 years or it could happen in a year from now. One thing is for certain, it will happen.
Every year we keep hearing and seeing in the news how strange and unpredictable the weather has become, and every year we have record storms and
temperature that surpass those records we had in the past.
One thing scientists agree on, nomatter which side they take, is that the world's weather is affected by the north atlantic current. This current is
what keeps a mild climate on northern territories and also helps on keeping a warm summer in such places as most of Europe, Canada, the northern part
of the US etc, by pushing warm currents north.
This north Atlantic current is fed by the warm currents from the Ecuador and by the cold currents from the North Pole, but in recent years scientists
have seen that the glaciers from the north pole are dissapearing at an alarmic rate, since 1972 more than 40% of the ice covering the north pole are
gone, the same is happening to antartica, it is predicted that in our not so distant future, could be a year from now or 10 years from now there will
be a new navegable ocean where the glaciers of the north pole are.
IS ARCTIC SEA ICE RAPIDLY THINNING?
Greg Holloway and Tessa Sou
Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney BC, Canada
Reports based on submarine sonar data have suggested Arctic sea ice has thinned nearly by half in only recent decades. Such rapid thinning is a
concern for detection of global change and for Arctic regional impacts. Re-examining the inferred thinning while including atmospheric timeseries,
ocean currents, rivers runoff, and modelled physics of ocean-ice-snow, we find that inferred rapid thinning was unlikely. Varying winds, which rapidly
redistribute Arctic ice, create a difficult sampling problem, dominated by a recurring pattern where ice is expelled from the central Arctic while
thickening in the Canadian sector. Timing and cruise tracks of then submarine surveys missed this mode of Arctic variability.
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Not only that but salinity plays a big role in keeping this North Atlantic current flowing also, and a small change in salinity will also affect the
current, and as the glaciers from the north melt the salinity of the water changes.
As fresh water dilutes the salt in the North Atlantic, the water becomes less dense. And if the water arriving from the south can't sink even
after it cools off, it won't make room for the next batch. By putting the brakes on this circulation, "fresher water in the North Atlantic could be
real trouble," says Dan Seidov of Pennsylvania State University.
Igor Yashayaev, a Canada-based researcher working with Dickson, figures the lowered salinity is equivalent to adding a layer of fresh water 12 feet
deep to the North Atlantic. Experts are unsure whether it is coming from heavier rain and river runoff or melting of Arctic glaciers and sea ice. Nor
do they know whether the cause is a natural climate cycle, global warming due to human activity, or some mix of the two. And they don't know exactly
how much additional fresh water it would take to push the Atlantic over the edge and cause its circulation to collapse.
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How would we know it has started?
Scientists agree in this that it will all start in the North Pole and those regions closer to the north, and the south pole is also affected.
YANRAKYNNOT, Russia ó The native elders have no explanation. Scientists are perplexed as well. The icy realm of the Eskimo ó the tundra and
ice of Russia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland ó has started to thaw.
Thunder and lightning, once rare, have become commonplace. An eerie warm wind now blows in from the south. Hunters who prided themselves on their
ability to read the sky say they no longer can predict the sudden blizzards.
In recent years, seabirds have washed up dead by the thousands and deformed seal pups have become a common sight. Whales appear sick and
undernourished. The walrus, a mainstay of the local diet, is becoming scarce, as are tundra rabbits.
The elders, who keep thousands of years of history and legend without ever writing it down, have long told children this story: If the ice that
freezes thick over the sea each winter breaks up before summer, the entire village could perish.
Even Zoya Telpina, the schoolteacher in this outpost of 350 Chukchi reindeer herders and marine mammal hunters, said a winter sea without ice seemed
like "a fairy tale."
But last winter, when Telpina looked from her kitchen window toward the Bering Sea, she saw something she'd never seen in her 38 years: the dark
swell of the open ocean, water where there had always been ice.
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The American Navy and some others are already making plans on how to defend that new ocean, but that's not the first concern for all nations in the
The most alarming trend yet is that of global warming. Though it has seen its share of denial, itís very obvious in the measurable fact that the
tundra and ice of Russia, Alaska, Canada and Greenland has started to thaw. In the last century, parts of the Arctic have warmed by 10 degrees
Fahrenheit, 10 times the global average. Sea ice covers 15% less of the Arctic Ocean than it did 20 years ago, and that ice has thinned from an
average of 10 feet to less than 6. The U.S. Navy is already planning for an ice-free Arctic, exploring ways to defend the previously ice-clogged
Northwest Passage from attack by sea! This yearís drought, which affected 46 counties in New York, New York City, and all of New Jersey is our most
palpable example of this alarming climate change.
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When the glaciers don't have enough strength to keep sending cold currents to the south, the current will collapse on the north and the current will
stay in a small zone in the Ecuador. When this happens all of the northern nations will experience longer and colder weather which will not only
disrupt those nations in the north but will cause drought in many sections of the ecuador or mild temperature zones.
Imagine prolonged drought in the mideast of the US, where farms feed more than half of the population of the world. All countries found in the
northern hemisphere will be colder and their summers will be almost none-existant. There will be masss evacuations as people flee to more temperate
areas and where food and water is obtainable.
This will cause nations to go to wars over water, food and territory as the north becomes a frigid zone. Water wars will be the first we will see.
The Pentagon predictions come as early as 2007... a mere three years from now.
"By 2007 violent storms smash coastal barriers rendering large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable. Cities like The Hague are abandoned. In
California the delta island levees in the Sacramento River area are breached, disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south,"
the report read.
Mega-droughts will affect the world's major breadbaskets, including America's Midwest, where strong winds bring soil loss, is also among the
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Is there something we can do to stop this?
All the data is showing that, first of all, it seems to be normal for the Earth to go through these sudden catasthrophes, but that man has greatly
increased the effects of the sudden climate change we have entered. The question is not whether it will happen anymore, it is going to happen. Now
we can only speculate as to how severe it will be, and how soon and how can we be prepared for it.