Indian Retailation in response to Terror Attacks?Possible Military Scenarios

Indian Retailation in response to Terror Attacks?Possible Military Scenarios

Thought that we might put our heads together to see what India can and may do in response to the Terror Attacks in Mumbai.

People are calling it 'Indias 9/11' and are expecting a comparable response.

And then there is the danger of uncontrolled escalation to and beyond the nuclear threshold.
I think a key objective of this discussion could revolve around possible catalyst events/activities in these military scenarios that could lead up to nuclear exchange.

I am not putting any military scenarios forward myself, and not putting my own opinions on the board now; mostly because I believe do not have enough information to make an informed opinion. I am in the process of collecting the same.

Some priming data from scenarios run in 2002 when a similar situation presented itself: A good read sure; with a scenario.. A good Idea? I'm not so sure.
www.indiatoday.com...

Nuclear Threshold Breach Assessment:
www.ccc.nps.navy.mil...



[edit on 30-11-2008 by Daedalus3]

Daedalus3,

Do you want me to do a list for Pakistan (Number of etc) and you do one for India?

reply to post by chinawhite


that could work.. lets try and get operational numbers.. going through every service and taking into mind current duties (Pak Army deployments along the Afghan border etc.)

And as for hot v/s cold start, lets look at both.

IAF Aggregation:
www.bharat-rakshak.com...

www.bharat-rakshak.com...: As of April 2007

AirBase Geographic Dispersion: scramble.nl...

Wiki:
en.wikipedia.org...

Recent relevant Developments are linked below. These are mostly describing
upgrades,squadron movements,infrastructure changes that are to be completed in the 2007-12 cycle. The point is, can and will these activities be sped up to support possible immediate scenarios?

New Airbase in the Kashmir region
Upgrades schedules impact operational force strengths This may be true of other a/c like the MiG 29, Jaguar and the Mirage 2000H.
New Su30 squadron by Feb 2009
Deep Strike Jaguar Fighter bombers moved closer to Pak border
Su-30 squadron to be deployed close to Pak border


[edit on 30-11-2008 by Daedalus3]

The Pakistani Army currently consist of 10 corps which are strategically located around Pakistan but have been mainly centered around the Punjab region directly opposite India. Its main strike forces are the Al-Khalid tanks and T-80UD tanks aquired from Ukraine. Its main role is to defend Pakistan's territorial integrity but has been used regulary to combat Al-qaeda in wild tribal region of which number over 90,000troops and paramilitary forces. It has an active force of 619,000 personnel and 528,000 men in reserve and is one of the worlds largest forces

Current and planned forces

Al Khalid Main Battle Tank
1x 125 mm smoothbore gun
1x 12.7 mm antiaircraf

Operational
range 500 km
Speed 72 km/h




Type 85IIAP Main Battle Tank

500 In Service. Being phased out

1x 125 mm smoothbore gun
1x 12.7 mm antiaircraf

Operational
range 430 km
Speed 57 km/h




Al-Zarar Tank Main Battle Tank
500 Currently under production

1x 125 mm smoothbore gun
1x 12.7 mm antiaircraf

Operational
range 450 km
Speed 50 km/h




Type 79IIAP (Chinese T-81 Upgrade)
450 Being phased out by Al Khalid

T-80UD Main Battle Tank
320 + 250 Delivered by Ukraine between 1997
and early 2002. 250 more were ordered in early 2002.

1x 125 mm smoothbore gun
1x 12.7 mm antiaircraf

Operational
range 540 km
Speed 65 km/h




Type 59
880 Being phased out by Al Zarrar & Al Khalid II

1x 100 mm smoothbore gun
1x 12.7 mm antiaircraf

Operational
range 450 km
Speed 50 km/h

Total tanks = Roughly 1500-2000 tanks

Here are Pakistans 10 corps and the location of their headquarters marked with red



I Corps - Mangla
6th Armoured Div - Kharian (Shahsawar)
17 Div - Kharian
37 Div - Gujranwala


II Corps - Multan
1st Armd Div - Multan (Mailed Fist)
14 Div - Okara


IV Corps (Lahore)
10 Div
11 Div (Battle Axe)
3 Armd bde - Chunian


V Corps - Karachi
16 Div - Pannu Aqil
18 div - Hyderabad (desert hawk)
Corps Reserve V Corps - Malir (this is a mechanised or light armd division with an unconvenional name)


X Corps - Rawalpindi (four oversized division)
FCNA - Gilgit (its a division under X Corps, and not an indep command, deplyed from Siachen to Nekrun)
12 Div - Murree (Chinar - deployed from Nekrun to Batal in Bagh distt, largest div of the army)
19 Div - Mangla (not deployed, pulled back by Gen Aslam Beg)
23 Div - Jhelum (Shining Star - deplyed from Batal to River Chenab near Gujrat, composed of 3 AK bde in Kotli, 4 Ak bde in Sabzkot, 66 bde in Padhar - Chamb and 333 bde in Jalalpur Jattan along with an armd regt)


XI Corp (Peshawar)
7 Div - Peshawar (Golden Arrow)
9 Div - Kohat (Mardan is wrong location qouted in some indian websites)


XII Corps - Quetta, along with both divisions
33 Div
41 Div (Shola Div)


XXX Corps - Gujranwala
8 Div - Sialkot
15 Div - Sialkot


XXXI Corps - Bahwalpur
35 Div - Bahawalpur
40 Div - Okara
Corps Reserve XXXI Corps - Bahwalpur



Source for written content. Credit goes to Nisar Abbas
www.pakdef.info...




[edit on 30-11-2008 by chinawhite]

Pakistani airforce Orbat

Major Airbases in Pakistan

www.scramble.nl...

Please use the link to see full orbat

The PAF operates about 153 mirage planes of a lot of different makes, and 105 older J-7 planes and 55 newer J-7 planes. It also has 44 older F-16 versions which are undergoing MLU. In this regard, India has a distinct advantage

Pak may relocate 100,000 army personnel to Indian border


Karachi, Nov 29 (PTI) Pakistan may relocate around 100,000 military personnel from its restive border area with Afghanistan if there is an escalation in tension with India, which has hinted at the involvement of Pakistani elements in the Mumbai carnage, a media report said today.
Private channel Geo News reported that Pakistan's military and intelligence sources told a select group of journalists today that NATO and American command had been told that Islamabad would be forced to relocate its military from the borders with Afghanistan if there is escalation in tension with India, where nearly 200 people were killed in the multiple terror attacks on the Indian financial capital.

"These sources have said NATO and the US command have been told that Pakistan would not be able to concentrate on the war on terror and against militants around the Afghanistan border as defending its borders with India was far more important," Geo News quoted senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir as saying.

He also said the sources had briefed the media that the decision not to send the ISI chief Lt Gen Shuja Pasha to India was taken after Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee used a very aggressive tone with Pakistani officials on telephone after the Mumbai attacks.

"The decision to not send the ISI DG to India was taken because Mukherjee used strong words with Pakistani officials and warned of consequences," Mir quoted the military sources as saying.
Link

[edit on 30-11-2008 by chinawhite]

I agree that there isn't enough info at the moment to create a possible scenario "map".

Chinawhite had a good idea though, shall we start gathering sources of info which we can later use to conduct the analysis?

Some links of use:

en.wikipedia.org... : Farkhor Air Base will serve as a formidable problem for Pakistan, since India could effectively attack from both sides in a pincer movement... the most basic and yet dangerous form of military strategy.

en.wikipedia.org... : India has ballistic intercept capabilities. Pakistan does not.

en.wikipedia.org... : Missiles comparable to the Pakistani missile set, but some important differences (eg higher payload, lower range etc).

en.wikipedia.org...


Im not exactly sure how much use those are ultimately, because India's doctrine has always been limited warfare. Barring a nuclear first strike by Pakistan, India would never use its formidable navy or extensive army in a total warfare scenario. This was pretty much proved by India's insistence on not crossing the LoC in pursuit of retreating Pakistani light infantry during Kargil.

It may be more important to compare the special ops and spy warfare divisions of the two countries.

en.wikipedia.org...

www.time.com...

Both sides have nuclear weapons and you want them to go to war. I doubt anyone is that stupid in government to want nuclear war striking out over i admit alot of deaths.

Come on guys, do you really think there would be areal war between these two, over this incident, when there have been countless incidents in the past.

The english yet again have created a right mess for the world, and it is always interesting that people do not question the role england has played in this.

great thread so who's getting the blame
i have not caught up with the latest

India, is not going to attack Pakistan, because of some militants who live in Kashmir, who pose as "Good people" and live in Pakistan, and orchestrate terrorist attacks against people in other country's.
It will not be allowed to happen.
Who will not allow it to happen you may ask?
Me.

Ok.. good show.. promising start to this thread.

So assuming that India starts this all, they would prefer to do one of the following:

1)Cold Start overt limited conflict of the likes of territorial slicing.. occupy slices of land, cleanse them of supposed terror camps, and then use them as bargaining chips
with Pakistan for institutional changes/concessions. This would mostly be executed in the Northern areas, where the camps are supposed to be.

Advantages:

Pakistan will mostly not be able to defend this effectively due to inferior force deployments/projections. We will run the numbers on that soon in this thread. Note this is an Indian advantage. I do not see a Pakistani advantage in any conflict starter scenario at least.

Disadvantages: Pakistan may respond by opening new fronts lower down in the Western and South Western regions, to stem the flow on the northern front. This would then become an all out war with an escalation towards the nuclear threshold.
Note: This has been an unavoidable course of events/escalations in the last 2 great wars of 65 and 71.


2)spec Ops insertion deep into Pak Territory.

Let us discuss scenario 1 first completely. CW can you determine which corps are currently deployed along the Afghan border. I think its more that the local corps.

I will get info on Indian corps in the mean time. I doubt there will be any involvement of Indian armor really.. Only deployments to prevent the punching through of alternate front incursions and infantry with aerial support to cleanse occupied areas in scenario 1.

hey.. hey.. hold it there on sec.
Why don't we have enough info for scenarios?

also..off topic .. why would rude words dissuade a ISI DG from coming over?


Soulslayer a couple of points:

1)Farkhor may not be a valid operational base due to intl restrictions that exist with or w/o these terror retaliation motives..
It seems to be a little complicated

2)Ballistic Interceptor layered defenses are in no way operational and I seriously doubt that they will be in time for all current relevant scenarios.
In fact a recent CAG report points out SERIOUS gaps in surface Based Air Defence abilities in India. Not that Pakistan is much ahead, but a serious concern nonetheless; especially if terrain hugging cruise missiles like the Babur are operational.

If this missile is worth its value, it will be very helpful to take out forward Indian staging areas like airbases etc. which will forces the IAF to operate from deep inside Indian territory. This will severely curtail deep interdiction/strike and CAP missions that are vital to any low intensity/surgical strike objectives from India's perspective.

Any idea on whether the Babur is truly Fully operational?

3)Finally Ballistic Missile comparisons are a taboo to me because if we're talking about them then we've already breached the nuclear threshold..
Flight Time is what .. 5-10 minutes? No system in place on the subcontinent will has a effective system that is capable of intercept; except malfunctioning ballistic missiles themselves

[edit on 30-11-2008 by Daedalus3]

reply to post by Jezza

purely hypothetical as of now.. no real fingers pointed as yet.

reply to post by Daedalus3


Those are very interesting point- I wasnt aware of any of them.

I also believe that a vital factor in modern warfare is remote sensing.

To that end these are probably of interest :

www.fas.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

en.wikipedia.org...

India has 34 satellites vs Pakistan's 5. I dont know if this would be a major concern, since remote sensing capabilities could be gained from allies.

Speaking of allies, Pakistan has a major advantage of having a steadfast ally in China. This would translate to an advantage in remote sensing capabilities due to China's possession of the "satellite killer" missile.
en.wikipedia.org...
Clearly China would not overtly use the weapon, but it could be "sold" to Pakistan.

Let me know what you think

Next time I'll write a post about economic considerations and how capable both countries would be in terms of switching to a limited or full scale wartime economy.

Huh???

The Pakistanis are also fighting against Islamic exrtemists, and are co-operating with India over the Mumbai attacks.

Would anyone be stupid enough to let some terrorists be the cause of a major war with a country that wasn't involved??

If there was a war between India and Pakistan, you'd see a lot more and worse attacks than Mumbai, that's for sure.

It would make much more sense to go for the real enemy.

reply to post by Anonymous ATS


And who is that?
What do you think the objectives of this war would be?

It is beginning to look as if elements within Pakistan do indeed have connections to this attack on Mumbai. However I very much doubt this has anything to do with an official agency of the Pakistani government. It makes no sense whatsoever for any official in Pakistan to support such attacks; there is nothing to gain, but a lot to risk. Still, there is one way in which conflict might break out.

India may overtly, or covertly, adopt the position of the United States ('take care of terrorist elements within your county, or we will do it for you'). Yet it is one thing for the U.S. to take unilateral action within the tribal regions near the Afghan border; India doing the same thing (officially) within Pakistan would not fly. For one Pakistan cannot challenge the U.S. military, even though it possess WMD's. The evidence that Al-Qaeda leaders are operating and direction from Pakistan is also undeniable. Pakistan and the U.S. are "allies" and they need U.S. aid and cooperation in far too many critical aspects to disrupt that relationship. In the end, despite the internal and external tensions our strikes create we are taking care of a problem they cannot, for various reasons, devote their full attention to. However all of that will become nil and void if India were to attempt the same. I need not state the reasons why Pakistan would not look the other way. The situation would likely escalate out of control and no one wants that, including India. That is why it should not, and will not, happen.

But I'm all for how a hypothetical conflict might play out.

[edit on 30-11-2008 by WestPoint23]

Originally posted by Daedalus3
reply to post by Jezza

 

purely hypothetical as of now.. no real fingers pointed as yet.

cool
cheers buddy i thought i missed something