Shoppers holding back on black friday!

Shoppers holding back on black friday!

www.financialpost.com

NEW YORK -- Shoppers turned up early for holiday sales at U.S. stores Friday, but the annual pilgrimage appeared thinner this year and many consumers vowed to spend less due to a shrinking economy.

Retailers from Wal-Mart Stores Inc to Macy's Inc , Kohl's Corp and Best Buy Co Inc opened their doors in the early hours of "Black Friday," offering steep discounts to scores of shoppers who waited in line.

In the New York City suburb of Valley Stream, a man working at a Wal-Mart died as a throng of shoppers broke down the doors trying to enter a store, police said. Four others were injured and taken to the hospital in what the company called a "tragic" incident.

This holiday weekend will test the strength of consumer sentiment, a main driver of the U.S. economy, as the country faces its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"The recession is kicking in," said Tammy Williams, 36, as she waited before dawn to enter a Kohl's in West Paterson, N.J. "I'm just looking for a bargain, anything to save a couple of dollars. I'll save the rest for food shopping."

Natalie Diaz, 32, plans to spend about one-half of the $2,000 she shelled out last year for Christmas gifts, but said she would not cut down on presents for her twins.

"They won't get it," she said of her children, while shopping at a J.C. Penney in Jersey City on Friday. "Santa does not have a recession."

Many retailers fear a deep recession and mounting job losses will cost them dearly during the period that brings in up to 40% of annual sales. Experts predict this could be the worst holiday shopping season since the early 1990s.

Most stores offer major discounts on Black Friday, the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, hoping to ring in billions of dollars through year's end. Some chains opened during the holiday on Thursday to capture business even earlier.

Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with NPD Group, said that early store traffic appeared about 25% lighter than a year ago. People seemed to be more selective about the shops they visited and weren't staying inside stores as long.

Traffic levels and the amount of time spent in stores will be key indicators for retail chains over the next few weeks precisely because the price markdowns are so deep, Mr. Cohen said.

"If I'm selling something at 75% off, I've got to sell twice as much merchandise to make up that difference," he said. "If you don't get a good Black Friday start, you've got an awful lot of ground to make up."

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[edit on 11/29/2008 by kinglizard]

Well I'm sure the effect of this will not be seen till the coming weeks and I'm sure this came as no surprise to anyone. I wonder how many here bought less than last year?

When I see 75% off sells, I know that things are getting grim.I know there are many out there shopping, but I see they are looking for deals..(hence the rush of deals at Wal-Mart that took a life as well as the shooting death at Toys-R-Us).......As the losses come home to roost, we will see a great economic slump.

What are your views on this and did the economic crunch halt your Christmas spending?...........It did halt mine!

www.financialpost.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Looks like this may not only be a black Friday, but a Saturday, Sunday, and December as well.........................................

reply to post by rikk7111


I never ever ever shop black friday. But I couldn't this year anyway. Both myself and my hubby have been partially laid off and the money is just not there to go out spending like that.

My hours have been cut back and my wife has had health problems so we can not afford to buy a whole lot this year. And I refuse to use credit cards. We are still paying on our credit cards from last Christmas. Won't make that mistake this year.

Wal Mart, etc will just have to do without as much of my money this time around. Nothing I can do about it.

I feel your pain, my wife got laid off and I lost one of my incomes, so that leaves me with one that is on the rocks. If one good thing comes out of this, it will be that we now know the most important thing about Christmas....Family..( not speaking on a religious subject, cause Jesus is the most important)...Just speaking on life's terms. What will next year look like...........Or will will we ever see it?

"If I'm selling something at 75% off, I've got to sell twice as much merchandise to make up that difference"

This statement makes no sense to me. I was trying to figure out what his initial markup percentage must have been, in order for that to be true:

Original price
price1 = cost + markup * cost
profit1 = price1 - cost

Price with 75% discount
price2 = 25% * price1
profit2 = price2 - cost

Statement from the article
profit1 = 2 * profit2

But I couldn't figure a solution that would allow that statement to be true, and the sale to be profitable, ever.

This is part of the media's annual attempt to make things look as bad as humanely possible. Every single year, without fail, the media proclaims that this year holiday sales will suck and that things are just going to be horrible out there. They write articles with this propaganda all during November and December.

Then, sometime in January, the media soberly has to write reports that somehow their experts are "shocked" and that "sales came in above expected." Every year it occurs, because they aren't experts but people just doom mongering.

Already, they are having to back pedal on their doom and gloom Black Friday attempts: "Early data show Black Friday stronger than expected"
biz.yahoo.com...

Yet again, the experts the media is using...are completely clueless.

[edit on 30-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

[edit on 11/30/08 by niteboy82]

Originally posted by Ian McLean

"If I'm selling something at 75% off, I've got to sell twice as much merchandise to make up that difference"

This statement makes no sense to me. I was trying to figure out what his initial markup percentage must have been, in order for that to be true:

Original price
price1 = cost + markup * cost
profit1 = price1 - cost

Price with 75% discount
price2 = 25% * price1
profit2 = price2 - cost

Statement from the article
profit1 = 2 * profit2

But I couldn't figure a solution that would allow that statement to be true, and the sale to be profitable, ever.

It's just another marketing ploy to get people to go "oh my word 75% off!?! we gotta shop this year!"

After all this is appearing in the news.

Well I just dropped just over $700 to get tires on my car and get an alignment. So the only people getting anything this from me and my wife Christmas is my son. I am not expecting anything from others either though unless they have made it themselves.

Right now things are not bad in the sense that others might be. I just do not want to dig in too deep just yet. As soon as we can afford it we will be adding additional home protection to the household. But it looks like it will be next year before that will be possible.

As for shopping on “black Friday” I would never do that. I hate shopping as is. We normally try to buy online to avoid the stores until it comes time to buy food which we do once a month. That is only possible due to an extra freezer in my garage.


Raist

I've gone the last 4 years on black Friday, but not this year. I'm waiting for Monday's on-line sales and am hoping that the deals will be a bit better, and most things I buy online are going to be clearance items anyway. Our income is the same as it was last Christmas, but all of our expenses have gone up and we are actually still trying to get caught up after that wind storm that came through a few months back. (Extra groceries, extra expenses for the damages, etc. really messed us up being on a fairly strict budget.)

The only people getting anything this year from us are our kids, and I had to explain to the oldest yesterday that even though he really wants 500 toys this year Santa has to have enough toys for everyone and that Santa can't bring him everything he wants. I'm working on getting him to name one or two things that he absolutely has to have from Santa, but being 6 he wants everything equally. Christmas is definitely going to be skimpy this year at our house.

Originally posted by niteboy82
Last year, I don't recall the DJIA being sliced pretty much in half over a period of what? 6 months? We also didn't see oil go from a record of 147 to 50. There was no $700b bailout for companies that royally messed up. Housing markets weren't nearly in such a mess as they are now. Fannie/Freddie weren't being saved and I don't believe that unemployment was as high as this year.

Its your call for your own opinion, of course, but you are seeing this just as "another year" and saying that the MSM is blowing all of this out of proportion and there is nothing wrong with our economy?

[edit on 11/30/08 by niteboy82]

Happened in 1987 and every recession Oil? Please, 1970s oil crises anyone? Bailouts? Savings and loan crises? Chrysler bailout?

The stock market is not the economy. The world does not change because it goes down or up.

Its well known the media want to create doom and gloom, you fall for it at your own peril. The facts suggest things are nearly as horrible as people want them to be. The malls are packed, and people are just doing so horribly they get up at 5am and trample each other to spend "only" $1,000 on huge TV's they don't need. Yeah, things are horrible.

[edit on 30-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
This is part of the media's annual attempt to make things look as bad as humanely possible. Every single year, without fail, the media proclaims that this year holiday sales will suck and that things are just going to be horrible out there. They write articles with this propaganda all during November and December.

Here's a motive supporting that assertion:

Sociologists say fear of being unable to afford gifts may drive competitive shopping

Niteboy, you look hotter than ever.


I heard a report where sales were up from last year- what they didnt mention is that these stores are practically giving the stuff away!!!
As far as Black Friday, i have to pass that up and wait for Green Friday when i have some money.

I am just getting everyone "1" item- $20 limit. With a card that says "I love you"

TV news is reporting that sales are up 3% from last year.

I don't think that 'shoppers are holding back on black friday' as the title of this thread suggests.

Side note - we are spending a LOT LESS this year. So WE are holding back - but shoppers in general don't seem to be. Sales are up.

Originally posted by dgtempe
I am just getting everyone "1" item- $20 limit. With a card that says "I love you"

Are ya' getting me one? We could go shopping together in Salem. Did you ever get your Egyptian Tarot cards? I know where you can get them ... Laurie Cabot's witch shop in Salem. That's where I got mine. But of course - that was almost 30 years ago ....

My dear FF, if i ever see them i promise i will buy you a set of those cards!

You have my word on that!

Lova ya and Merry Christmas! You need to replace yours after 30 years!

I'm still hunting, i think i saw them on the Internet but i just havent had the funds.

[edit on 1-12-2008 by dgtempe]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Side note - we are spending a LOT LESS this year. So WE are holding back - but shoppers in general don't seem to be. Sales are up.

I wonder how much of that is going on plastic, compared to how much is being bought in cash?

Hey if people can do it, good for them. You couldn't have paid me to go out on Black Friday anyhow, and I sure as heck couldn't afford to run around with $1000 tv's in my cart!

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I'll send you ladies some tins of fig cookies. hehe