Study Finds Chemtrails Are Seasonal

Originally posted by LowLevelMason
I didn't see anyone point this out, but I hope someone by now has made it clear that this does not all provide any evidence that chemtrails are seasonal.

1) There is no reason to believe there is a correlation between claims of chemtrails and the number of threads on ATS, since ATS is not a representative sample of the population.
2) There is no reason to believe people actually post threads on chemtrails after they occur, people can post threads about chemtrails all the time without ever actually seeing one.
3) What this is actually measuring is patterns of ATS posting - this is a primarily US based site and the majority of posters post in the winter, consistent with all other message posting patterns.

We would first need to establish that chemtrails exist anyways before arguing whether or not it occurs seasonally. Its not at all clear its anything but contrails.

Another peer review. Thank you.

In response:
1) ATS may or may not be representative. But it is the source of my data. I don't think (please let me be correct) that I said this was a scientific study.

2) Is correct. I realized that (too late to change the thread title) and took it into account in the development of my theory. Rather than being related to actual "chemtrail" production. The study reflects concern or awareness of the phenomenon.

3) Requires another study.

Contrail frequency varies seasonally. I do not believe in "chemtrails".

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

I would be honoured if you could provide a scientific point by point critique of this investigation.

With empirical evidence to support your facts.

www.lightwatcher.com...


apologies if this is a re run , im new here.

reply to post by Phage


Quoting you Phage

Can't show you any chemtrails because there is no such thing.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

So at least you stepped up into openmindedness. by saying it's possible or is that sarcasm?? Welcome.

As to draw parallels between "chemtrailing" and USMC throwing a coup.....lol cmon

"Chemtrailing" aka aerial chemical bombardment has been addmitted and conducted in government and military experiments.....whens the last time a coup was thrown by the USMC on it's own Government??

anyway's take it easy.


[edit on 27-11-2008 by GodshipForAll]

reply to post by Tinkabit


Hey awesome link I'd like to see phage refute those scenarios....

Seems very plausible and possible in all "likelyhood"....and wow put fourth by the National Acedemy of Sciences....hmmmmmm Science eh?

Extreme situations cause for extreme measures

Originally posted by Phage
In response:
1) ATS may or may not be representative. But it is the source of my data. I don't think (please let me be correct) that I said this was a scientific study.

No, there is no question that ATS is absolutely not representative of the general population. A majority of the world's population doesn't even have a computer and a majority of the world does not surf conspiracy sites. If a study does not draw from a representative sample then it has no real value because there is no way of telling whether or not the patterns observed would be seen in the general population.

Originally posted by Phage
2) Is correct. I realized that (too late to change the thread title) and took it into account in the development of my theory. Rather than being related to actual "chemtrail" production. The study reflects concern or awareness of the phenomenon.

It does not reflect awareness either, because that assumes that there is a direct correlation between posting on ATS and the observance of what people believe is a chemtrail. I see contrails all the time, I don't believe in chemtrails for the record, but even if I did I wouldn't post ATS threads about them every time I saw them because its not something that really interests me that much. There is no reason to believe there is a direct correlation between observance of what people think is a chemtrail and the posting of threads on ATS.

Originally posted by Phage
3) Requires another study.

No, not at all. The "about us" page on ATS confirms this, as do the usage statistics for any other major message board.

By the way, if you know chemtrails are not real what is the point of posting this? Is this just an attempt to mock people who believe in them?

[edit on 27-11-2008 by LowLevelMason]

I like the idea behing your unscientific study, Phage. But I think you may have skipped some threads, and thus the chart may be way off.

I did not see my thread,
www.abovetopsecret.com...

in your raw data text. Maybe others have chemtrail threads but without the word chemtrail in the subject line. Just my thoughts, thanks for going the trouble and doing this anyway, interesting.

Originally posted by LowLevelMason

No, there is no question that ATS is absolutely not representative of the general population. A majority of the world's population doesn't even have a computer and a majority of the world does not surf conspiracy sites. If a study does not draw from a representative sample then it has no real value because there is no way of telling whether or not the patterns observed would be seen in the general population.

Again, I didn't claim this was a scientific study. I clearly stated what I used for my sample. The "chemtrail" theory is a conspiracy theory. ATS may be representative of the population group interested in conspiracy theories.

It does not reflect awareness either, because that assumes that there is a direct correlation between posting on ATS and the observance of what people believe is a chemtrail. I see contrails all the time, I don't believe in chemtrails for the record, but even if I did I wouldn't post ATS threads about them every time I saw them because its not something that really interests me that much. There is no reason to believe there is a direct correlation between observance of what people think is a chemtrail and the posting of threads on ATS.

Again, as I said, I realize the thread title is incorrect. It should read "Study finds that chemtrail posting is seasonal. I am unable to edit it now. The frequency of the observation of contrails is not necessarily related to level interest in "chemtrails". Presumably the level of interest could be independent of observation. It was my assumption that the number of threads started in a given period of time on a given topic reflects the amount interest in that topic. The sample does indicates a seasonal correlation.

No, not at all. The "about us" page on ATS confirms this, as do the usage statistics for any other major message board.

I can't find statistics on the number of posts per month much less the number of threads initiated. All I can find is the number of site visits which, based on a cursory look, does not appear to be seasonal.

By the way, if you know chemtrails are not real what is the point of posting this? Is this just an attempt to mock people who believe in them?

No.
I know that there is a seasonal variation in contrail frequency. It occurred to me that there may be a relationship between that and the generation of threads on the topic of "chemtrails". I found there is and I found it interesting. I thought others might and I thought it would add a different angle to the discussion of the subject. Unfortunately the intended topic of discussion, my study, was for the most part ignored. Thank you for staying on topic.

reply to post by hotbakedtater


I understand and agree. I clearly stated the source of my sample in the OP. Thanks.

(feel free to delve deeper)

reply to post by ziggystar60


a reminder.... this is a conspiracy site..it looks like the mod is attempting to make fun of chemtrail ops.. How exactly is this a scientific study?? .. I hope ATS moderators can see this thread for what it is.. The thread title is also extremely misleading.

[edit on 28-11-2008 by thefreepatriot]

reply to post by thefreepatriot


I don't agree 100% with you. I think Phage started an interesting thread here, and even though I admit that I have been making fun of people, it has NOT been directed at other members.

I am making fun of the chemtrail THEORY itself, and the NWO/Illuminiati type of guys which, as I understand it, is behind the spraying of the population. I think the theory itself is really, really stupid and actually quite hilariolus, and I also think that it is sad to see how much fear and paranoia it creates among some people.

If you think that I have been targeting or making fun of you or any other spesific member, I apologize for that. I can assure you that it is the chemtrail theory itself that I think is laughable, not any spesific member here at ATS.

I also believe that I have the right to express my opinions, just as you have a right to express yours.

i don't think so my friend, seasonal please let me laugh, persistent contrails, building 6 falling down all by it's self all of it BS spin, they are doing the spewing of aluminum oxide world wide, it is time we out source as many sams as we can find and put an end to this madness once and for all of humanity..cheers hunt up those sams svp asap

I'm not going to say your right or wrong on chem trails because I really don't know. But I do think your comparison is a little unfair.

That's like saying that ice cream causes domestic disputes.

You can find that in the US when we have a high amount of ice cream sales we also have our highest domestic dispute cases pop up.

It could also be that people buy ice cream in the summer more often and heat causes people to be more agitated and that causes a higher number of domestic disputes.


The same could be said that drinking milk has a high chance of producing our killers in the US. A majority of people interviewed on death row admitted that growing up they drank milk.

reply to post by ziggystar60


The thread is a "study" on other ATS members posts and calling it an observation of seasonal chemtrail activity.. which is obviously lubricious...This is an attack on other ATS members that post here.. I hope ATS continues to foster an environment where members don't attack other members for there ideas and or posts.... RESPECT other ATS members beliefs even if they don't match yours or even if you think they are crazy.. it is obvious the op is using this false thread to lure chemtrail believers into a joke againts THEM..this is ignorence at its purest :

The Motto: "Deny Ignorance"

More than a slogan and deeper than a mission statement, our members have embraced the motto of "Deny Ignorance" as our reson detre, demanding everyone who posts to aspire to a higher standard of participation. These simple two words have galvanized a broad membership base that spans the spectrum from highly speculative conspiracy writers to staunch skeptics. The result is a unique collaboration of diverse individuals rallying under this simple statement to learn from each other, discover new truths, and imagine new ideas that expand minds.

This motto has life. It has purpose. It demands ATS members to think.

It is a state of mind.

It is a sense of purpose.

It is a statement against the paradigm.

It is a rage against the mindless status-quo.

The idea of "deny ignorance" isn't a goal that ATS hopes to accomplish. Instead, it's a challenge. A call to all those who come here to aspire to a higher state of awareness through informed discussion and debate.

Deny ignorance is what we do.

It's how we think. It's how we talk. It's how we listen.

Ignorance is the social disease of history that has clouded our minds and dulled our brains. Is the evil that men do, the reason history repeats, and the cause of intolerance.

We deny it. it's not welcome here. Within these boundaries, it has no strength.

Here, ignorance is denied.



Also last time I chekced... attacking other members\posts is againts ats rules..

from thebandit795:
No more scoffing and ridicule...

Attention all,

If you feel the need to scoff at, make fun of, or ridicule a member because he made a post or started a thread that you don't agree with, or that you think is stupid, crazy, too out there or ridiculous. Do not post anything. Ufology and paranormal studies have suffered for decades because anything in that area is constantly ridiculed and made fun of by the media and by the average joe, because of it conflicting with their beliefs of what reality is. Not one belief on reality is true, and no one has the "copyright" on what's 100%, no 101% true or not. Not me, not you, not society, not science... NO ONE. Thinking it's otherwise is just being ignorant.

Most people simply don't give the chance for intelligent, unbiased and rational discussion with these matters. They revert to ridicule and scoffing. This is IMO the dumbest, stupidest habits people can have, and unfortunately close to 99% of the average people suffer from this nonsense. If we at ATS are any different, I have yet to see that with most or all of us.

So you will not ridicule or make fun of someone else when they post something that conflicts with your version of reality. OR else I will delete your post, and consider your post a form of abuse, offensive and of poor taste, being thus a violation of the Terms & Conditions.

Originally posted by Phage

[ Note that the data shows a peak in production in the fall and winter and a general decline in the spring and summer (the apparent anomolous low activity in December and January are obviously attributible to the fact that the weather is dreadful and cloudy and people stay indoors and when they go outdoors it's cloudy and they cant see the chemtrails and can thus be ignored).

The reason being is that the upper atmosphere is colder during the autumn and winter months, as it is at the surface. The colder the atmosphere, the better chance for persistant contrails.....

My 2 cents

Originally posted by whoshotJR
I'm not going to say your right or wrong on chem trails because I really don't know. But I do think your comparison is a little unfair.

No causation is meant to be implied. I noticed a correlation between the creation of "chemtrail" threads and the time of year. The correlation corresponds to the seasonal variations in the frequency of persistent contrails.

reply to post by Phage


Sorry I guess I based my assumption of your bias from perception of your previous posts and the title of the thread. In fairness you clearly did not state one way or the other in your OP.

[edit on 28-11-2008 by whoshotJR]

reply to post by whoshotJR


Because he is using the title of the thread to "lure" chemtrail believers into reading a "study" made using chemtrail believer posts as the observation .. and reportedly tying it to seasonal activity.. to base the posts made by ats members to seasonal weather.. and calling it a study.. is absolutely ridiculous.. this is coming from a person that DOES NOT believe in chem trails whatsoever ... so obviously the thread is being condescending to Chem trail believers.to put it .quite simply this is an attack on other ATS members that believe in the phenomenon... very low and sad..

OK Enough about

1. Other members
2. Why the thread was started
3. Or any other Off Topic Comments

If you don't like the thread, don't post..

Any further Off Topic Posts will be removed and/or the member warned without further ado

Semper

reply to post by ziggystar60

*Snip*

*Snip* And to say that my post regarding sickness to which you replied with the assumption that i was stating that the purpose of chemtrails was to cause sickness and that was a plan of the Illuminati/NWO.
I said no such thing and you twisted my words.
I stated that sickness and contrails have a connection in the thread data and in my personal experience. The fact that you completely side stepped my thoughts/theories and mocked my reply by indicating the obvious fact that people get sick more often in the winter season was frustrating and i used euphemisms to shroud my anger, for that i was censored once. *Snip*

MOD Note: Off Topic Remarks Removed: Terms and Conditions

1f.) Relevant Content: You will not post messages that are clearly outside of the stated topic of any forums nor disrupt a forum by deliberately posting repeated irrelevant messages or copies of identical messages (also known as "flooding").

[edit on 11/28/2008 by semperfortis]

WOW

[edit on 28-11-2008 by s0ndernet]