Study Finds Chemtrails Are Seasonal

[edit on 27-11-2008 by MemoryShock]

reply to post by dangleb3rry


As you can see, the results of the study based on ATS threads closely follows documented patterns of persistent contrails.

Contrails are more prevalent in the winter, as is the creation of new threads about chemtrails. If chemtrails existed as a separate phenomenon, there would be no such correlation. Why would interest in chemtrails fade during the summer?

This is my conclusion about the results:
People see more persistent contrails in the winter, freak out and rush to ATS to start yet another thread about chemtrails.

One poster added illness as another reason. People see more contrails, become ill, and relate the two. The problem with creating this relationship is that this time of year has been considered "the cold and flu season" for a very long time. Rather than contrails causing illness, it is more reasonable to conclude that contrails and illness are enhanced by similar weather conditions.

If there is a conspiracy concerning chemtrails it is a conspiracy to create fear (and to sell some books and DVD's) by taking advantage of a natural phenomenon and the low level of knowledge in the general populace about our atmosphere.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by dangleb3rry

 

As you can see, the results of the study based on ATS threads closely follows documented patterns of persistent contrails.

Contrails are more prevalent in the winter, as is the creation of new threads about chemtrails. If chemtrails existed as a separate phenomenon, there would be no such correlation. Why would interest in chemtrails fade during the summer?

This is my conclusion about the results:
People see more persistent contrails in the winter, freak out and rush to ATS to start yet another thread about chemtrails.

One poster added illness as another reason. People see more contrails, become ill, and relate the two. The problem with creating this relationship is that this time of year has been considered "the cold and flu season" for a very long time. Rather than contrails causing illness, it is more reasonable to conclude that contrails and illness are enhanced by similar weather conditions.

If there is a conspiracy concerning chemtrails it is a conspiracy to create fear (and to sell some books and DVD's) by taking advantage of a natural phenomenon and the low level of knowledge in the general populace about our atmosphere.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

I really think your hitting the nail on the head with this thread Phage and progress is being made instead of endless wild claims and demands back and forth about evidence of this that or the other.
This is critical thinking at its finest and im certain the result will be fruitful where many chemtrail threads appear as mirages in the harsh desert of bunk and debunk madness.

Conspiracy to create fear.
The taking advantage of the natural persistent contrail phenomenon being an underlying key element to the purpose and timing of chemtrails for whatever purpose they serve.
Illness is enhanced by the very weather in which contrails persist.

Can we give some credence to the fact peoples intuition still lead them to believe that the persistent contrails are not always what they seem even and especially when armed with the scientific knowledge of the persistent contrail creation process and condition as well as knowledge of aerial spraying for the purposes of weather modification and communications enhancement as has been documented in state legislature and elsewhere.
Your data, Phage, seems to outline these factors.

[edit to include addition of aerial spraying comment]
NOTE: if you want to argue with me about the documentation of aerial spraying do it elsewhere. THIS IS NOT the thread for it. Heres one ]

[edit on 27-11-2008 by s0ndernet]

Nice thread and idea.

Here's what I think.

THe graph back on page one that shows a straight steady increase of activity from January through December is just wrong. I do not see the correlation between the increase in activity and months.
Secondly, just because a thread about chem trails has been posted on a certain date doesn't mean the chemtrail occured on that dtey. It could have been months or years earlier. This study is completely flawed. Nice try though. Sorry to poo poo the idea but I felt compelled to share my opinion. Your thoughts are welcome.

BTW. Full disclosure. I am a skeptic when it comes to chemtrails. They are contrails - plain and simple.

There will be no more posting to the poster. There will also be no more personal attacks.

We can all talk civillay here, please let's do so.

The topic is, "Study Finds Chemtrails Are Seasonal."

Please continue.

Thank you.

LOL!!!

[edit on 27/11/2008 by Zeus187]

reply to post by Phage


Very good post Phage.

I have a few questions though.

Your chart is based on ATS posts so where do these post originate from? I assume they mostly would be from North America?

Folowing your logic that people report more "chemtrails" in certain seasons should it follow the same pattern globally?

Originally posted by s0ndernet

Can we give some credence to the fact peoples intuition still lead them to believe that the persistent contrails are not always what they seem even and especially when armed with the scientific knowledge of the persistent contrail creation process and condition as well as knowledge of aerial spraying for the purposes of weather modification and communications enhancement as has been documented in state legislature and elsewhere.
Your data, Phage, seems to outline these factors.

An over reliance on intuition can lead to illogical conclusions and incorrect beliefs. But it is not intuition when websites tout misinformation, rumor, speculation, and lies as the truth. It is fear mongering. It is not intuition when these website take advantage of ignorance to instill fear.

reply to post by drock905


I did point out in another post that geographical data is not considered in the data derived from ATS. There is no way to ascertain the location of the post originator so yes, posts from the southern hemisphere would be in the wrong season. I did get the feeling though, while gathering the data that the great majority are from the northern hemisphere.

(Maybe a number of the mid-year posts are from the south. This would make the changes in a seasonally corrected chart even more dramatic.)

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

Originally posted by venividivici
Nice thread and idea.

Here's what I think.

THe graph back on page one that shows a straight steady increase of activity from January through December is just wrong. I do not see the correlation between the increase in activity and months.
Secondly, just because a thread about chem trails has been posted on a certain date doesn't mean the chemtrail occured on that dtey. It could have been months or years earlier. This study is completely flawed. Nice try though. Sorry to poo poo the idea but I felt compelled to share my opinion. Your thoughts are welcome.

BTW. Full disclosure. I am a skeptic when it comes to chemtrails. They are contrails - plain and simple.

Thanks for the "peer review". That's what science is all about.

The chart does not show a steady increase in activity at any time. It shows a peak during the colder months (except for December and January which is explainable) and a slump in the warmer months.

You're correct that the timing of the post may not coincide with the observance of the contrail but that was not what the study is about. The study is of awareness (or concern) of "chemtrails" at different times of year. The second chart shows that the actually occurrence of contrails follows roughly the same pattern.

"Chemtrails" are claimed to be an ongoing program to do...something (a bunch of different threats are touted). If that were the case both concerns about "chemtrails" and the appearance of persistent contrails should show little fluctuation throughout the year. My study and the observed behavior of contrails demonstrate that this is not the case. The seasonal furor over "chemtrails" is a hysterical reaction to the fear induced by a lack of knowledge and fear mongering.

reply to post by Phage


I was referring to pikypiky's graph. I misinterpreted the purple line, I thought is was like a moving average overlay. Sorry.

reply to post by ziggystar60


Its called a soft kill. Check out the life expectancies over the last ten years.

I find it kewl that all you disinfo guys have made your own self-congratulatory thread.

Party on alphebet boys.

Originally posted by Tinkabit
reply to post by ziggystar60

 

Its called a soft kill. Check out the life expectancies over the last ten years.

Good news!

Life expectancy in U.S. rises to all-time high of 78

www.reuters.com...

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage



two can play at that game


www.voanews.com...

Originally posted by Tinkabit
reply to post by Phage

 

two can play at that game
www.voanews.com...

Caution: Smoking is hazardous to your health. Thanks for the link.

Ezzati points to chronic disease related to increases in smoking, high blood pressure and obesity as factors driving the trend. He says while much is known about how to manage these conditions, care is not reaching the people who need it the most. Women have experienced the most serious declines.

Maybe they're spraying us with Snicker bars.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

Originally posted by dave420
reply to post by blowfishdl

 

And you base that on what, exactly? Your limited sky-gazing? Stop the presses! We have the smoking gun we need to blow the lid of this repugnant NWO/Illuminati/Reptilian/David Icke plot!

I base that on my own observations, obviously of which you have none of your own to contribute to this thread so I suggest heading back to belowtopsecret.

You can't deny the possibility can you? if you can your a fool.

I haven't even seen anything that looks like a chemtrail in real life.

But I've read articles documents of previous operations of chemical agents being dispered by aircrafts. It's been admitted that non-consenual testing has been done. And well as other non consenual experimenting in other feilds. My point is....

Why is it so hard to believe that this isn't a possible scenario.....?

Non consensual testing and experimentation on:

-Ethinic minorities; ex. African Americans (Tuskegee syphilis experiment)
-Homosexuals , Mentally handicapped and Mental patients.
-Microwave Harassment and Mind-Control Experimentation
-Nonconsensual drug testing of pregnant women
-CIA's Program of Research in Behavioral Modification
-High oxygen concentrations to premature infants
-Non-Consensual Genetic Testing
-Cincinnati radiation experiments
-1955 The CIA, in an experiment to test its ability to infect human populations with biological agents, releases a bacteria withdrawn from the Army's biological warfare arsenal over Tampa Bay, Fl.
-1965 Prisoners at the Holmesburg State Prison in Philadelphia are subjected to dioxin, the highly toxic chemical component of Agent Orange used in Viet Nam.
and many many more.....Just imagine what other unknown experiments or currently being conducted.

Doctors used to recommend smoking, coca cola laced it's drink with coc aine, aspartame melts lab rats brain cells, water flouridation etc...

So deny and refute the evidence supplied and posted if you deem it non varifiable or quantifiable. However to completely dismiss any possibility that "Chemtrails" don't exist for whatever unkown tense or purposes is ignorance.

Ignorance to the capability of some powerful people and ignorant to the many scientific possible reasons as to conduct such experiments. Good or Bad.



The Nuremberg Code (1947) is the most authoritative ethical / legal code of medical ethics. All subsequent codes of ethics, including the Code of Federal Regulations, are guided by the Nuremberg Code whose first principle mandates: "the voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential."

So let's see you state there absolutley no possibility deniers at the end of your post so we see how firmly you stand.

It's possible!

reply to post by GodshipForAll


Ok. It's possible that some persistent contrails contain substances other than normal exhaust gases. Without physically testing every contrail, it cannot be proven that they don't. It's also possible that the USMC is undertaking a covert coup against the US government as we speak. There is no evidence of either one but neither can be disproved. This is why conspiracy theories exist at all. They are not falsifiable. But just because something could happen does not mean it is.

Everyone chooses what they believe. Everyone has different criteria to determine if something is believable. Some require no evidence. Some operate only on a "feeling". Some operate on misconceptions, rumors, speculation and lies provided by others.
Others require evidence which is consistent with other facets of what is known about the way things work.

I really don't care what a person believes unless it interferes with my life. I also don't like it when people use ignorance and lies to convince others that there is evidence when there is none. I don't believe that persistent (or any) contrails are "chemtrails".

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

I didn't see anyone point this out, but I hope someone by now has made it clear that this does not all provide any evidence that chemtrails are seasonal.

1) There is no reason to believe there is a correlation between claims of chemtrails and the number of threads on ATS, since ATS is not a representative sample of the population.
2) There is no reason to believe people actually post threads on chemtrails after they occur, people can post threads about chemtrails all the time without ever actually seeing one.
3) What this is actually measuring is patterns of ATS posting - this is a primarily US based site and the majority of posters post in the winter, consistent with all other message posting patterns.

We would first need to establish that chemtrails exist anyways before arguing whether or not it occurs seasonally. Its not at all clear its anything but contrails.