Study Finds Chemtrails Are Seasonal

The purpose of this thread is to discuss my discovery that chemtrail production is seasonal. I have arrived at this conclusion by conducting an extensive statistical analysis of the relationship between chemtrails and the time of year. My source is the number of threads on the subject of chemtrails which are started each month on ATS.

The data was obtained by performing a search for "chemtrails". The sample consists of 136 threads, the first being started on July 30, 2002 and the most recent on November 25, 2008. Here is a chart of the results, the y axis is the number of threads started and the x axis is the month in which the threads were initiated.



This analysis indicates a clear relationship between the occurance of chemtrails (as indicated by the interest in them and therefore the awareness of them) and the season. Note that the data shows a peak in production in the fall and winter and a general decline in the spring and summer (the apparent anomolous low activity in December and January are obviously attributible to the fact that the weather is dreadful and cloudy and people stay indoors and when they go outdoors it's cloudy and they cant see the chemtrails and can thus be ignored).

I have no theory as of yet as to the causation of this phenomenon. I welcome your ideas.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

This is a good initiative, Phage. I hope this will be a thread filled with sane and scientific explanations, a place to gather info which hopefully can be educational. Hopefully this can prevent a lot of misunderstandings and unnecesseary fear.

reply to post by Phage

Excellent work, Phage. Probably the first scientific investigation of the chemtrail phenomenon ever.

As I mentioned on another thread, I believe chemtrails are caused by emissions from aircrew and passengers following the consumption of beans. I wonder whether any research has been done on the seasonality of bean consumption, so that we can see whether it correlates in any way with the seasonality of chemtrail reports as mapped in your graph.

It would also be useful to know whether Pythagoras and his followers left chemtrails; if they did, this would eliminate the Bean Hyphothesis.

We could then investigate a promising alternative explanation known as the Curry Hypothesis. As we know, the increasing popularity of Asian cuisine across the world shows a rough trend relationship with the growth in chemtrail sightings. Perhaps some enterprising statistician could map the frequency of opening of Asian restaurants in and near airline network hubs and compare them with chemtrail sightings on routes connecting with those hubs.

It would also be useful, in this context, to gather information on the number and frequency of spicy meal options served onboard to airline passengers. The recent expansion of route networks by large Asian carriers (Air-India, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific and Emirates in particular) is also well worth investigating, as is that of Korean Airlines - for the kimchi connection, of course.

Thread flagged. Post starred. Own signature changed for advertising purposes.


[edit on 27-11-2008 by Astyanax]

What I would like to know if is there should be some kind of limitation for how many chemtrail threads a single member can start. I have seen a certain member here have 2 (or is it perhaps 3) going at the same time.

Isn't this against the T&C at this board? Can the Mods do something about this? Insanity doesn't bet better with mulitude.

I came here in the hopes of finding a scientific study; as seasonal analysis and comparison for Contrail activity perhaps....and what do I find - A "study" done by phage, not on chemtrails, contrails or the like - but a study based on the frequency and appearance of chemtrail threads!

The title of this thread completely misrepresents the contents.... which is Disingenuous to say the least - and quite possibly done apurpose for malevolent reasons...

Either way, I've been lied to. Thank you phage, for the misrepresentation you hath bestowed upon us.

Mod edit: Removed note to staff.

[edit on 27-11-2008 by Gemwolf]

Okay, I see the 'X-axis' as represented by the months (1-12). But nowhere do I see data for the 'Y-axis'.

Anyway, if I may, I have a couple of interpretations to the 'graph' provided by the OP:

1. It appears that people are having more fun under the heat of the sun. Hence, the 'dips' are lower compared to the higher peaks during the colder months.

2. Maybe the coldness does contribute to the higher occurrences to these alleged 'chemtrails', err, or contrails due to condensations (?) of water vapors in the upper atmosphere.

[edit on 2008-11-27 by pikypiky]

Originally posted by Astyanax
Excellent work, Phage. Probably the first scientific investigation of the chemtrail phenomenon ever.

"Scientific investigation"?

By how many are reported on ATS?

Maybe you're right, and this is the first "scientific investigation" of this phenomenon.

They happen all year round here. A friend of mine takes as many photos as he can throughout the year in order to pick the best shot of each month at the end of this year, so he can make a calendar for next year.

Originally posted by pikypiky
Maybe the coldness does contribute to the higher occurrences to these alleged 'chemtrails'

COLDNESS??!!!

They're more frequent here when it's hot!

The chart looks fairly accurate for us here in the Southern Hemisphere.

[edit on 27/11/08 by NuclearPaul]

reply to post by pikypiky


For my purposes the shape of the curve is more important than the values. But, in the interest of science, the raw data is here:
chemtrails.txt

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

reply to post by NuclearPaul


A very good point that is not taken into account. The seasonal difference between the northern and southern hemispheres has not been corrected. I have been remiss, the location of the thread originator has not been included in the data but I have no way of determining that information.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

Originally posted by NuclearPaul

Originally posted by pikypiky
Maybe the coldness does contribute to the higher occurrences to these alleged 'chemtrails'

COLDNESS??!!!

They're more frequent here when it's hot!

The chart looks fairly accurate for us here in the Southern Hemisphere.

[edit on 27/11/08 by NuclearPaul]

I was trying to understand the graph from the perspective in the Northern Hemisphere.

reply to post by Phage


Thanks! I am trying to see if I could 're-create' your graph based on the raw data you provided.

Okay, I'm back and this is what I came up with and it looks similar to yours:


[edit on 2008-11-27 by pikypiky]

OK, I said we need to look at the connection between scam... eh, chemtrails and seasons in a scientific way. And I meant it. We have to stop fooling ourselves here. We need to look deeper. We must look into the abyss itself. The Beast behind this irrational fear.

There can be no doubt that the paranoia level has risen to new hights these last couple of days before Thanksgiving. Phage's diagram is very reveiling. As pointed out earlier in the thread, some members even have mulitple scam... eh, chemtrail threads going at once.

I have come to the conclusion that the chemtrail paranoia must be a mental defense mechanism. The mind has found a clever way of derailing and masking a fear so deep that certain people simply can not face it. It is the fear of the upcoming turkey dinner.

For some, the intense fear that the turkey may be over- or undercooked, or that the stuffing may not taste right, is simply too much to bear. Others dread the annual meeting with the drunken, rude uncle or the thousand year old aunt with her never ending stories about how much better everything was in the good old days. And who looks forward to meeting that disgustingly successful cousin? The guy who always has to rub it in your face with his fancy excecutive title, his palace house and the expensive wife who is so much younger and more beautiful than your own...

I say we need to start support groups where people crippled by fear of Thanksgiving can come together and face their secret fear. They need to deel with it before the paraonia overwhelms them and they start yet another scam... eh, chemtrail thread. We already have the Gray Area. I suggest that the staff also creates a Turkey Area here at ATS.

reply to post by Phage

Oh, I wouldn't worry. In terms of population and economic indicators, the Northern Hemisphere so far outbulks the Southern as to render the latter practically nonexistent. If it weren't for Indonesia and Brazil, you might as well say the place was unpopulated.

But if you really wanted to, there's a thread somewhere on ATS that gives a breakdown of posts over a given period by country. You could use that to weight your results, giving a more accurate picture.

reply to post by pikypiky

Holy smoke! Picky, you found a previously unknown phenomenon hidden within the data. The number of months increases in a direct relationship to the... month!


Ain't statistics a gas?


[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

I remember a winter with -20 back in Eastern Europe, yet full of chemtrails. Also a summer of +30 , yet full of chemtrails. I did not imagine there could be a fluctuation ..

One randomly chosen website dedicated to chemtrails has the following claim:

The spraying has been going on in earnest all over America (and other countries as well) since Fall of 1998.

educate-yourself.org...

I have the following questions:

1. Has there ever been a death in the US (or any other country) where the cause has been proven to be exposure to chemtrails?

2. Has the death rate in US risen dramatically since the fall of 1998?

I am asking for numbers and facts that can be proven and documented here.

Considering the poisoning of the population supposedly has been going on for ten years, one should think that the evil plan of the NWO/Illuminati guys should have started to work by now...

reply to post by ziggystar60


Given that chemtrails are proven to contain Aluminum and other nefarious heavy metal oxides - one might research the increase of Alzheimer's as Science has proven a correlation between Alumium and the disease.

If it is true that Aluminum is used as a component in chemtrails, one might be justified in claiming that this might possibly be one of the side-effects of this particular component being added to the Aerosolized Ordinance being utilized.

We all know that chemtrails are good for us, keeping us safe from Nuclear Annihilation and halting the evil global warming we all fear so much.

Juxtaposed to this, the drastic increase in Alzheimers and the increase of occurrence at such young ages along with all the associated side-effects is really a small price to pay for the protection it affords us, along with the need to stop global warming

We should almost be glad that occurrences of Alzheimers and the like are increasing at such an unnatural rate - it just goes to show how serious our governments are about fighting global warming AND protecting us from nuclear annihilation.

We should be glad. I'm glad. Are you?

[edit on 27-11-2008 by Canadianduder]

Originally posted by Canadianduder
reply to post by ziggystar60

 

Given that chemtrails are proven to contain Aluminum and other nefarious heavy metal oxides - one might research the increase of Alzheimer's as Science has proven a correlation between Alumium and the disease.

If it is true that Aluminum is used as a component in chemtrails, one might be justified in claiming that this might possibly be one of the side-effects of this particular component being added to the Aerosolized Ordinance being utilized.

Please check out this thread RE Aluminium:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Canadianduder


I am not sure if you are joking... Anyway, did you not understand what I was asking for?

I am looking for FACTS and NUMBERS that can ble PROVEN and DOCUMENTED regarding the supposedly lethal effects of chemtrails.

I am not the slightest bit interested in "if" or "perhaps" or "might" and yet another paranoid theory.

You know what I'd like to see? A chart that has the frequency during the year, but also the areas that chemtrails are being sprayed. It'd be interesting to see whether or not the poor areas get sprayed more.

reply to post by ziggystar60


"I am not the slightest bit interested in "if" or "perhaps" or "might" and yet another paranoid theory. "

Then why are you confining your search to a Conspiracy Theory website

Surely there are more scientific venues than this one, but you already know that don't you...