The purpose of this thread is to discuss my discovery that chemtrail production is seasonal. I have arrived at this conclusion by conducting an extensive statistical analysis of the relationship between chemtrails and the time of year. My source is the number of threads on the subject of chemtrails which are started each month on ATS.

The data was obtained by performing a search for "chemtrails". The sample consists of 136 threads, the first being started on July 30, 2002 and the most recent on November 25, 2008. Here is a chart of the results, the y axis is the number of threads started and the x axis is the month in which the threads were initiated.



This analysis indicates a clear relationship between the occurance of chemtrails (as indicated by the interest in them and therefore the awareness of them) and the season. Note that the data shows a peak in production in the fall and winter and a general decline in the spring and summer (the apparent anomolous low activity in December and January are obviously attributible to the fact that the weather is dreadful and cloudy and people stay indoors and when they go outdoors it's cloudy and they cant see the chemtrails and can thus be ignored).

I have no theory as of yet as to the causation of this phenomenon. I welcome your ideas.

[edit on 11/27/2008 by Phage]

This is a good initiative, Phage. I hope this will be a thread filled with sane and scientific explanations, a place to gather info which hopefully can be educational. Hopefully this can prevent a lot of misunderstandings and unnecesseary fear.

What I would like to know if is there should be some kind of limitation for how many chemtrail threads a single member can start. I have seen a certain member here have 2 (or is it perhaps 3) going at the same time.

Isn't this against the T&C at this board? Can the Mods do something about this? Insanity doesn't bet better with mulitude.

I came here in the hopes of finding a scientific study; as seasonal analysis and comparison for Contrail activity perhaps....and what do I find - A "study" done by phage, not on chemtrails, contrails or the like - but a study based on the frequency and appearance of chemtrail threads!

The title of this thread completely misrepresents the contents.... which is Disingenuous to say the least - and quite possibly done apurpose for malevolent reasons...

Either way, I've been lied to. Thank you phage, for the misrepresentation you hath bestowed upon us.

Mod edit: Removed note to staff.

[edit on 27-11-2008 by Gemwolf]

Okay, I see the 'X-axis' as represented by the months (1-12). But nowhere do I see data for the 'Y-axis'.

Anyway, if I may, I have a couple of interpretations to the 'graph' provided by the OP:

1. It appears that people are having more fun under the heat of the sun. Hence, the 'dips' are lower compared to the higher peaks during the colder months.

2. Maybe the coldness does contribute to the higher occurrences to these alleged 'chemtrails', err, or contrails due to condensations (?) of water vapors in the upper atmosphere.

[edit on 2008-11-27 by pikypiky]

Originally posted by Astyanax
Excellent work, Phage. Probably the first scientific investigation of the chemtrail phenomenon ever.

"Scientific investigation"?

By how many are reported on ATS?

Maybe you're right, and this is the first "scientific investigation" of this phenomenon.

They happen all year round here. A friend of mine takes as many photos as he can throughout the year in order to pick the best shot of each month at the end of this year, so he can make a calendar for next year.

Originally posted by pikypiky
Maybe the coldness does contribute to the higher occurrences to these alleged 'chemtrails'

COLDNESS??!!!

They're more frequent here when it's hot!

The chart looks fairly accurate for us here in the Southern Hemisphere.

[edit on 27/11/08 by NuclearPaul]

OK, I said we need to look at the connection between scam... eh, chemtrails and seasons in a scientific way. And I meant it. We have to stop fooling ourselves here. We need to look deeper. We must look into the abyss itself. The Beast behind this irrational fear.

There can be no doubt that the paranoia level has risen to new hights these last couple of days before Thanksgiving. Phage's diagram is very reveiling. As pointed out earlier in the thread, some members even have mulitple scam... eh, chemtrail threads going at once.

I have come to the conclusion that the chemtrail paranoia must be a mental defense mechanism. The mind has found a clever way of derailing and masking a fear so deep that certain people simply can not face it. It is the fear of the upcoming turkey dinner.

For some, the intense fear that the turkey may be over- or undercooked, or that the stuffing may not taste right, is simply too much to bear. Others dread the annual meeting with the drunken, rude uncle or the thousand year old aunt with her never ending stories about how much better everything was in the good old days. And who looks forward to meeting that disgustingly successful cousin? The guy who always has to rub it in your face with his fancy excecutive title, his palace house and the expensive wife who is so much younger and more beautiful than your own...

I say we need to start support groups where people crippled by fear of Thanksgiving can come together and face their secret fear. They need to deel with it before the paraonia overwhelms them and they start yet another scam... eh, chemtrail thread. We already have the Gray Area. I suggest that the staff also creates a Turkey Area here at ATS.

I remember a winter with -20 back in Eastern Europe, yet full of chemtrails. Also a summer of +30 , yet full of chemtrails. I did not imagine there could be a fluctuation ..

You know what I'd like to see? A chart that has the frequency during the year, but also the areas that chemtrails are being sprayed. It'd be interesting to see whether or not the poor areas get sprayed more.