Nice thread. F&S.
I had to butt in and say something to the folks who have expressed a concern about Global Warming because it will supposedly usher in a new Ice Age. I
have yet to hear anything so fantastic outside of comic books.
The only way this fear could be grounded is if the warming directly triggered the cooling. We at present have no verifiable mechanism for this to
happen that I have seen. Much more likely, and much more verifiable, is a cyclic mechanism that moves from warming to cooling trends. So if we accept
the possibility that a cooling trend will occur in the future, it would make as much sense to worry about getting the planet too warm as it would to
worry about getting your house too warm before a cold snap hit. All a cold house will do is make the cold snap more unbearable, and all a cooler
planet going into a cooling period will do is make that cooling period more devastating.
The proper procedure is to verify
the models that are being used before taking them to heart. This is extremely difficult to do when global
atmospheric conditions are the item under scrutiny, because as ProfEmeritus pointed out, the range of variables is enormous. Fluid dynamics,
thermodynamics, chemistry, chaos theory, Newtonian physics, Organic sciences, electromagnetic wave theory, and many other disciplines all have a place
in the study of this mass of gases which surround us.
The fact that models are not verifiable in most cases due to these variables is not sufficient reason to simply accept them as true, either. There is
no justification for simply accepting anything
as fact because someone said so, even if it is a lot of someones doing the saying so. Science
must be proven, by repeatable, verifiable, and peer-reviewed experiments and observations, or it is simply not science. It is conjecture, which we
used to call in engineering a SWAG (Sophisticated Wild-Ass Guess).
I did go back through the linked graphs on the solar cycles, and it appeared from a casual examination that this last cycle was really nothing out of
the ordinary. Rather, it appears that the cycles before it were extraordinarily energetic. That lends credibility to the fact that solar radiation,
not a colorless odorless gas has been the culprit all along. And should that be a fact, then it literally strips the scientific community who have
been crying for so long about CO2 levels of any credibility as to their predictions either way.
In short, I am cold. The temperature so far this fall has been below average almost every day. I was promised Global Warming. I want to know where it
is. I want my Global Warming!
Do carbon credits come with a money-back guarantee?