The result of such progress and innovation will inevitably lead to what is called a 'Technological Singularity.'
The Singularity refers to a point in the future when the exponential progress of computing technology becomes infinite an incomprehensible. Consequently we will no longer be the dominant intelligence on the planet. To survive we will have to merge with the very technology we created.
Experts of the subject believe we are now fast approaching the time when we will be capable of transcending our mortal frailties by becoming less biological and more technological. The possible timeframe to expect this momentous change ranges from 2012 - 2050, however many think it's most likely to occur as early as 2015 to 2029. Here's a quote referring to what exactly this singularity could mean for us:
The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence. There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation. Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity – several different technologies which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.
The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small. If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds. In this respect the dynamic of the Singularity resembles other cases where small causes can have large effects; toppling the first domino in a chain, starting an avalanche with a pebble, perturbing an upright object balanced on its tip. (Human technological civilization occupies a metastable state in which the Singularity is an attractor; once the system starts to flip over to the new state, the flip accelerates.) All it takes is one technology – Artificial Intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, or perhaps something unforeseen – that advances to the point of creating smarter-than-human minds. That one technological advance is the equivalent of the first self-replicating chemical that gave rise to life on Earth.
~from What is the Singularity?
Likewise, here are a few graphs illustrating the possibility:
Below is a graph that shows the approaching transition we face. We can see how the time between major evolutionary and technological advancements is diminishing as we approach a point in time where growth and change will become infinite.
This graph represents Moore’s Law – the driving force behind the accelerating change in computational processing. It states that the number of transistors placed in integrated circuits has been increasing exponentially and as a result doubles every 18-24 months. Once the downsizing of silicon chips reaches it’s limits (at atomic levels), then a new paradigm will inevitably emerge:
The evolution of supercomputing power has increase steadily over the years, and according to current trends, is scheduled to reach the ‘required level for human brain functional simulation’ by 2013. Perhaps this very graph signals the event that will lead to the prophecies regarding the end of 2012:
This last graph illustrates the stages of evolution from simple biology to advanced technology, and eventually where biology merges with technology – we appear to be on the threshold leaving Epoch 4 and entering Epoch 5. Given he length of each epoch decreases dramatically, Epoch 5 should be fairly brief considering the resulting intelligence will be able to enhance itself as it sees fit. The rate of development will then exceed its previous exponential pace.
Epoch 6 will more than likely occur this century and will be the culmination of the 3.9-4.1 billion year history of life on this planet. Just as the mind forever endeavors to truly become self aware, so does the universe. And I suppose in describing what is exactly happening, one could say that they are not only succeeding, but they may also very soon become intimately aware of each other.
More information on The Singularity:
Technological Singularity - Wiki
Ray Kurweil’s technology news website
The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
Singularity Overview with numerous links
Encouraging a Positive Transcension (AI Buddha versus AI Big Brother)
Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us
Speculative newspaper front page the morning after ‘The Singularity'
People worth researching (Wiki links):
Ray Kurzweil
Vernor Vinge
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Hans Moravec
Ben Goertzel
Nick Bostrom
Bill Joy
Aubrey de Grey
Whatever happens when the pace of technological progress reaches this point, it's guaranteed to forever change the ways we view and experience the world. Things are happening so quick, it would be good to proceed with caution because the characteristics that make us human are at stake. If we do indeed have something like a soul, that will be at stake as well. Our thoughts, memories, our ability to forget, our concept of time - these things could all be forever altered because of the singularity we approach.
[edit on 22/11/08 by Evasius]
