U.S. intelligence study envisions decline in U.S. power, page 1
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Topic started on 21-11-2008 @ 12:20 PM by grover

U.S. intelligence study envisions decline in U.S. power


www.mcclatchydc.com
The risks of a nuclear weapon being used and wars being fought over dwindling resources will grow during the next 20 years as diminishing U.S. power, a shift of wealth from West to East, the rise of India and China and climate change reshape the world, a new U.S. intelligence study warned Thursday.

"The international system — as constructed following the Second World War — will be almost unrecognizable by 2025 owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from West to East, and the growing influence of non-state actors," the report said.

The U.S. "will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant," in part due to its military power and also because many nations will continue looking to U.S. leadership on issues such as climate change and non-proliferation, the report said.

The current economic upheaval could hasten those trends, but it's unlikely to trigger "a complete breakdown" in the international financial and political order, said the report, entitled "Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed."

"However, the next 20 years of transition toward a new international system are fraught with risks," said the study. "The rapidly changing international order at a time of growing geopolitical challenges increases the likelihood of discontinuities, shocks and surprises. No single outcome seems pre-ordained."

"History tells us that rapid change brings many dangers," it said.

(visit the link for the full news article)


reply posted on 21-11-2008 @ 12:20 PM by grover
The article goes on to say that:

Among its optimistic notes, the report projected life-improving technological breakthroughs in energy and other areas, and the likely "diminished appeal" of Islamic extremism, with al Qaida becoming an "aging group" that could "decay into marginality." Terrorism, however, likely will remain a threat, the report said.

The report, the fourth in a series that examines the forces that are driving international developments, was written by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, which is composed of the top U.S. intelligence analysts, with input from experts around the world.

The studies, which are timed to coincide with the advent of new administrations, aim "to stimulate strategic thinking" by incoming officials about how "the places, the personalities, the developments in their areas of responsibility" affect the wider world, NIC Chairman Thomas Fingar told a news briefing.

"It is not a prediction. We don't claim a crystal ball. We are not forecasting the future," Fingar said. "If one looks the problem(s) squarely in the eye, recognizes them, recognizes their causes, think about how they interact . . . it is not beyond the minds of human beings or political systems . . . to address and alleviate, if not solve, these problems over this timespan. We could have a better world, quite frankly."


I am sure some of the hard right knee jerk types will damn this thread and its report as anti-American.

Its not.

At the same time if we don't put aside hysterics and rhetoric and look the problems facing our nation and the world over the upcoming decades we will be doing our nation a grave disservice.

These problems exist... we have a hand in them just as surely we are affected by them and to ignore it and shout America right or wrong love it or leave it is just plain stupid...

I don't expect this thread to go a page without someone spouting such knee jerk rhetoric.

The most patriotic thing we can do is look at our nation free of blinders and see what is right with her as well as what is wrong and ask how can we make her better.

www.mcclatchydc.com
(visit the link for the full news article)


reply posted on 21-11-2008 @ 03:49 PM by HunkaHunka
reply to post by grover




I think it is *ALMOST* a foregone conclusion that we are losing power in the world.


I don't think it is the fault of any one party or administration either. I don't even think it's the fault of any political actions.

I think this is the normal trajectory of any civilization. Granted, Empires can live much longer and stronger because, well, they are Imperial.

We however are not an Empire and have very seldom ever functioned as one. Other than Athens, we are really the oldest form of democracy still living as far as I know. This is still a grand experiment, and I don't think we have much data to prove one way or another what the lifespan of a democratic republic is vs an Empire or other form of gov.


reply posted on 21-11-2008 @ 03:52 PM by HunkaHunka
reply to post by grover



After the economic meltdown, are they still functioning?

Thanks for the clarification.
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