First and foremost, the words "congratulations 2Lt" are the 6th worst words you can hear.
The first 5 worst phrases, as I was taught through unofficial channels as a Marine infantryman, are:
- 1. A private saying "I learned this in boot..."
- 2. A Sgt. saying, "I just got word..."
- 3. A warrant officer saying "watch this stuff..."
- 4. A 2Lt saying, "based on my experience"
- 5. A Col. saying, "I've seen this stuff before..."
And Drooper, you have no idea how close I came to applauding that post about your experience. lol.
Then of course, since I'm in this thread, I may as well say something on topic too, just as a matter of CYA:
Another sign I see that says that something big is coming down the pike is the very strange direction of speculation on Obama's cabinet. Too many New
Democrats and Republicans being talked about for high offices to be "normal" for the most liberal member of the senate (as a reformed neo-con turned
flaming liberal, I say that in the fairest and most well-meaning way humanly possible).
My opinion is that Obama is saving his political capital for that "unpopular decision in the first 6 months" that Biden warned us about right after
the big NATO "hunting trip" that took place in close proximity to the army base that handles logistics for troops in the North East.
I strongly doubt that the problem in question will directly involve Russia or China however, and my reason has nothing to do with the capability or
lackthereof of the nations involved.
(although I will go on record as saying that China would probably smoke us almost anywhere within 500 miles of their borders on the Asian
(with the possible exception of India- which isn't a war I expect anytime soon), but is questionable in the Koreas and completely out
of their league in any situation which vitally includes a blue water naval conflict.
The main reason I doubt Chinese or Russian involvement in this hypothetical upcoming problem which allegedly
is threatening to force a full or
total mobilization is simply that the strategic tendencies of both Russia and China tend towards the patient and defensive, and thus it is very unlike
either nation to assume the offensive at the outset of a conflict. Both nations are slow tempo fighters who have historically been outmatched by
enemies and have survived by sheer force of will, thus surviving long enough to take advantage of situations created by the mysterious and seemingly
irresistible force which Clausewitz called "friction" (the tendency for unforseeable random failures in relatively simple and mundane aspects of war
such as weather, logistics, external geopolitical developments, and the aggressor's political commitment, to weaken an army). Additionally, China's
emphasis on soft power, and internal frankness about the fact that they cannot hope to be a straight up match for the US for at least another decade,
further argues against impending aggression from those two rivals.
Neither nation is likely to repeat the Japanese mistake of awakening a sleeping giant.
As I said before, I think the only plausible scenario that leads to that level of mobilization is an attack by a persistent biological agent (and its
a little premature to say that such a mobilization is indeed in the works anyway, even if things do seem to be heating up a bit- an impending lower
intensity conflict, and some exaggeration in the grapevine would explain everything equally well- I bet Somalia or Iran, in that order. Taking an
international coalition to Somalia to mop up what the Ethiopians missed when we sent them in last X-mas would be a rare point of likely agreement
between Obama and Bush, which overcomes the lame duck problem that would apply to the reasons for a larger mobilization as I discussed earlier).