5 and 15!

Everyone:

One of our foremost Bears, and a man who predicted this mess back in 1999, has made a prediction on when this depression will end and how bad it will get!

David Tice, who heads up the contrarian investment fund Prudent Bear, told an audience of Harvard alumni this week that America will suffer in a depression or deep recession for five years with up to 15% unemployment.

Given his dire predictions, I'm actually surprised by the optimistic nature of this one. Still, he was very clear on how painful the deleveraging of the financial markets will be on all of us. So, in short, we're talking 2013 before we see actual recovery and more than 44 million jobless.

And that's optimistic...

it ties in nicely with this post

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012!
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by behindthescenes


Initially, I like to see your posts because they're always so interesting but then I usually end up feeling ill because they're also alarming...

I guess between Tice, Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, the picture that they have drawn of what we are facing is pretty stark.



[edit on 14/11/2008 by kosmicjack]

Originally posted by kosmicjack
Initially, I like to see your posts because they're always interesting but then I usually end up feeling ill because their so alarming...

I guess between Tice, Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, the picture that they have drawn of what we are facing is pretty stark.

Wow...normally, only girls at bars tell me I make them feel ill. This is quite a step up!

reply to post by kosmicjack


glad you enjoy and sorry they alarm you, I'm just being realistic.

There is something in the air. Can you feel it? Something major is coming. When I stop and take a minute to myself I get this overwhelming sens that something huge and profoundly life/civilization changing is coming at us and that most people are completely unwilling to wake from their slumber.

People that will be useful to have in a collapse are those that have survival skills. Hunting, fishing, primitive construction methods, natural medicine, trapping, farming, blacksmithing, etc... skills which the average Joe has no idea how to do.

another sign things are getting worse, jobless rates are way up and here is a
list of retail stores closing (closed or closing soon)

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I think that things will get bad but I don't see us at the point of living like it's 1860 again. Not too long ago in the late 90's to early 2K time frame the Germans were at around 12% unemployment and they didn't necessarily regress to a pre industrial age era lifestyle.
Remember , it's the US that is currently bankrupt. The Chinese, Japanese, Saudis and Russians have plenty of money and Gold.

The rest of the world who's been more frugal and hasn't chosen to take advantage of their citizens tax revenues to borrow and build bigger armies and start preemptive wars will recognize the financial opportunities here in the USA due to the sheer market size of the USA economy alone.

Take for example the Automotive industry. Toyota ,Nissan have been building vehicles here in the US for sometime now and they're both doing ok and meanwhile GM and Ford, with their White shirts and suits 60's style management are near bankruptcy.

The post WWII boom time era of the USA is over. Once this depression hits,
With lower prices on everything here in the USA from real estate to the workforce required to build new factories, this will attract more foreign investment in the USA and we'll essentially start all over again.
Maybe this time we will have learned a thing or two.

Sometime around Spring or Summer this year I read that the REAL unemployment rate was estimated around 12% (by some economic watchdog group).

If the economy continues as is for a number of more months we'll have easily surpassed 15% - unless that figure represents the recently unemployed collecting benefits, in which case the real unemployment rate would be something catastrophic.

15% may be a very conservative estimate if that's the case.

Originally posted by AtlantisAgain

15% may be a very conservative estimate if that's the case.

Yeah, as I said, I thought Tice to actually be surprisingly optimistic. Personally I think we'll eventually hit 25% unemployment -- one out of four without a job.